NBA 2017-18 Betting Preview: Over/Under Picks for the West and Playoff Predictions
The NBA season is around the corner. Rather than break down each team and bore you to tears, I’ll instead give you the TL;DR and clue you in on whether to bet the over or the under for their season win total. At the bottom, stay tuned for my favorite recommendations.
All over/under totals are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
NORTHWEST
Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U: 53.5)
Starting Lineup: Russell Westbrook, Andre Roberson, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams
OKC should lead the way in this division, which is one of the deepest and toughest I’ve ever seen. Russell Westbrook won the MVP last season and dragged a team of non-shooters to 47 wins. This year, he has legitimate scorers at his side in George and Anthony, so while his usage and scoring may dip, he will probably set a career-high in assists. There may be adjustments in the early-going, especially with Carmelo being so used to dominating the ball, but this team is going to be a beast to defend. OVER.
Denver Nuggets (O/U: 45.5)
Starting Lineup: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Wilson Chandler, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
I’m a big fan of offense, because I think offense wins in the regular season. The Nuggets will score ridiculous amounts of points. I have doubts about second-year man Jamal Murray as a point guard – he’d make for a phenomenal shooting guard – but he and Gary Harris can share duties. They also only need to bring the ball up past halfcourt, because Jokic can handle the passing from there. They also have veteran Jameer Nelson as a pure PG, and the still-super young Emmanuel Mudiay on the bench as well. This is one of the deepest teams in the NBA, and one of the scariest to guard. OVER.
Utah Jazz (O/U: 41.5)
Starting Lineup: Ricky Rubio, Rodney Hood, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert
The Jazz won’t score like the Thunder or Nuggets, but they will certainly defend. Losing Gordon Hayward would be a blow for any team, but SG Rodney Hood now has the opportunity of a lifetime to dramatically increase his role. I’d bet on the Duke product succeeding. The key to all this is C Rudy Gobert, the rare defensive center who can absolutely stay on the court against stretch/shooting lineups. The double-double machine will anchor this team and carry them through their inevitable scoring droughts. OVER.
Minnesota Timberwolves (O/U: 48.5)
Starting Lineup: Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng, Karl-Anthony Towns
The Wolves did well to snap up Jimmy Butler this offseason, and he’s going to make a huge difference for a squad that only won 31 games last year. But if you think they’re going to jump from 31 wins to 49 because they added two former Bulls (Butler, Taj Gibson) then you’re dreaming. The Wolves will be vastly improved, especially with Wiggins and Towns continuing to add to their games, but the depth isn’t impressing me. Jamal Crawford is shot, Tyus Jones probably tops out as a depth guard, and Shabazz Muhammad is okay. They likely don’t have enough shooting to keep up with the likes of OKC and Denver, nor enough D to hold down top-tier West teams. UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers (O/U: 42.5)
Starting Lineup: Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Noah Vonleh, Jusuf Nurkic
Speaking of buckets, there will be plenty once again from the Portland backcourt, which is arguably the second-best in the league. Unfortunately, the Blazers’ defense is still likely to be dreadful and they don’t have enough depth or scoring beyond Lillard and McCollum to overcome it. Portland has moves to make; between Vonleh, Nurkic, rookie Zach Collins, Meyers Leonard and Ed Davis, this team rosters five players 6’10 or over who play PF or C. That’s a fatal logjam, especially when the reserve wings are Al-Faroq Aminu and Evan Turner, who are notoriously medicore to bad shooters. I love Lillard and McCollum but they can’t overcome poor roster construction. UNDER.
PACIFIC
Golden State Warriors (O/U: 67.5)
Starting Lineup: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia
How is a team with arguably four Top 15 players also one of the NBA’s deepest teams? There isn’t a team in the league that can compete with Golden State or guard them. Let’s move on, there’s not much else to say. OVER.
Phoenix Suns (O/U: 29)
Starting Lineup: Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Marquese Chriss, Alex Len
The theme of my Western Conference predictions so far has been offense, and I think the suns, like the Nuggets, are gonna get buckets. Devin Booker is one of the most lethal scoring guards in the league already, and PG Eric Bledsoe, when healthy, is impossible to keep out of the paint. After back-to-back seasons of scoring 20+ points, it’s time to start considering Bledsoe/Booker in the NBA’s best backcourts. T.J. Warren is another underrated offensive player who just got paid. Phoenix’s issue is youth; their brightest players like Booker, Chriss, Dragan Bender, Josh Jackson and Derrick Jones are all under the legal drinking age. Perhaps I’m a year early on the Suns, but I like their upside. OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers (O/U: 44)
Starting Lineup: Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Danilo Gallinari, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan
The optimism you sensed in my brief description of the Suns does not apply to the Clippers. The Beverly/Lou Williams backcourt has the opposite of upside, Gallinari and Griffin are incapable of playing full seasons, and Jordan, while dominant in many aspects of the game, is a liability late and close because he can’t make free throws. Their best options off the bench include Austin Rivers and Sam Dekker. This is a team that has an okay starting five when it’s all healthy, and a so-so bench. I don’t see why this is an above-.500 team. UNDER.
Los Angeles Lakers (O/U: 33.5)
Starting Lineup: Lonzo Ball, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle, Brook Lopez
The Lakers are going to have an awful record this year because they don’t have players that are able to defend. Not a single player in their starting lineup has a positive defensive connotation, although several can score. The addition of Brook Lopez is a big deal for this team because he is a reliable 20-point scorer who has plenty of experience anchoring awful teams. His presence will ease the pressure on rookie Lonzo Ball to not only score, but also involve everyone and spearhead a high-scoring offense. KCP and Brandon Ingram are talented wings, particularly Ingram, and Randle is an inconsistent forward with Zach Randolph-like potential. L.A.’s bench is decent; Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance Jr. and Andrew Bogut are all useful. If Luke Walton can get some defense out of these guys they’ll be mildly surprising, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.
Sacramento Kings (O/U: 27.5)
Starting Lineup: George Hill, Buddy Hield, Garrett Temple, Zach Randolph, Willie Cauley-Stein
I wanted to be a little excited for the Kings, but it’s hard. Garrett Temple shouldn’t be starting, Zach Randolph hasn’t ever been good for a losing team, and right now the best offensive player in their starting five is Buddy Hield. There’s help on the way in the future with young guns De’Aaron Fox, Justin Jackson and Skal Labissiere on the bench, but they Fox and Labissiere will need a year or two to get their sea legs in the Association. Their time is coming, but it’s not now. UNDER.
SOUTHWEST
Houston Rockets (O/U: 56)
Starting Lineup: Chris Paul, James Harden, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela
For those wondering if Chris Paul and James Harden can play together since both guys thrive with the ball in their hand…yeah. They are future Hall of Famers. This was one of the NBA’s top offenses last year and they added CP3. This is going to be a high-octane offense and if the rumors are true, Mike D’Antoni is planning to have one of Paul and Harden on the floor at all times. Scary. Defensively, they’ll probably be bad again but it won’t matter much. After winning 55 games last season, I think adding Chris Paul makes you more than a game better. OVER.
San Antonio Spurs (O/U: 54)
Starting Lineup: Patty Mills, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol
For the first time in many years I’m worried about the Spurs. I know I shouldn’t be, because Gregg Popovich is still the coach, but the talent on this team is as low as I’ve seen it in years. While the Spurs’ system tends to overcome a talent deficit, the teams competing with San Antonio have all improved dramatically. This could be the year Kawhi Leondard takes home an MVP award, but he’s not quite 100 percent entering the season. If they don’t have Leonard firing on all cylinders, this is a squad that just doesn’t have the firepower to go up against Houston or OKC, let alone Golden State. UNDER.
Dallas Mavericks (O/U: 35.5)
Starting Lineup: Dennis Smith, Yogi Ferrell, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki
The Mavericks, like the Spurs, are short on elite talent. That said, Rick Carlisle is one of the finest coaches the NBA has to offer, and PG Dennis Smith could be one of the highest-impact rookies of this season. I’m interested in watching a pace-and-space offense led by Smith with Dirk Nowitzki playing center. Smith and Ferrell are an intriguing backcourt duo with both players fully capable of running the point, and Wesley Matthews and Harrison Barnes providing switching and 3-point shooting goodness. This is not a bad team at all, and will catch better teams sleeping. What keeps Dallas from being playoff-caliber is their bench. Beyond Nerlens Noel there’s no one to write home about, and that will sink them late in the year.
New Orleans Pelicans (O/U: 39.5)
Starting Lineup: Jrue Holiday, E’Twuan Moore, Tony Allen, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins
Can Davis and Cousins play together? I’d guess yes, since both can shoot from the outside and both are incredibly talented basketball players, but if they can’t there’s a chance New Orleans is one of the worst teams in the NBA. E’Twuan Moore is the only 3-point shooter in the starting lineup, and he’s never even played 25 minutes a game. The bench is a wasteland beyond PG Rajon Rondo, who could easily hurt the team with his attitude way more than he helps on the court. Maybe the Boogie/Davis pairing creates spectacular fireworks, but it seems more likely New Orleans trades Boogie midseason and tanks. UNDER.
Memphis Grizzlies (O/U: 37.5)
Starting Lineup: Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, Chandler Parsons, JaMychal Green, Marc Gasol
The once-proud Grizzlies missed their window during the grit-and-grind era, and are now one of the dregs of the league. No disrespect to Conley and Gasol, both fine players, but they aren’t good enough to shepherd decent role-players to the postseason. I can see the Grizzlies packing it in and possibly dealing one of Gasol and Conley, or both in a rebuild effort. Both players deserve to be playing deep into the summer. UNDER.
Postseason Seeds
1. Warriors
2. Rockets
3. Thunder
4. Spurs
5. Nuggets
6. Jazz
7. Wolves
8. Suns
One Team That Might Make It
Trailblazers.
NBA Finals Representative
Warriors.
The Best Over/Under Picks
1. Nuggets over 44.5
2. Suns over 29
3. Rockets over 56