NFL Week 7 Best Bets Against the Spread
So I'll keep this short and sweet. Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread. My Survivor picks have failed twice, so until 2018 you’ll be spared.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 9-9
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3) over Kansas City Chiefs
After a tough Week 6, it’s time I lean on an old tenet of mine – betting home underdogs is good. Division rivalry games that include a home underdog are even higher on my list of likes, and the Raiders-Chiefs rivalry is particularly heated. These teams hate each other, and rarely blow each other out. Kansas City’s aura of invincibility was pierced last week, and the Raiders can’t possibly continue to struggle this much offensively with QB Derek Carr back under center.
The Chiefs’ defense has been quietly middle of the pack – 14th vs. the run and 24th vs. the pass – and their offense, while high-scoring, has been reliant on Alex Smith, a rookie RB (Kareem Hunt), and a No. 1 WR (Tyreek Hill) who was little more than a gadget player last season. This is a good team, but the jury’s out on great. Facing a hungry Oakland team with its back against the wall, and just as much pure talent on its roster, I’ll happily take the three points in the Black Hole.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (+3) over Jacksonville Jaguars
Once again, we have a divisional battle with the home team being completely disrespected. The Jaguars have been surprising, and they had the top-ranked defense in the NFL per FootballOutsiders.com heading into last week, but it’s unclear why they are road favorites here. Blake Bortles remains an awful QB, they just lost by 10 points at home to the Rams, and they also managed to drop a road tilt to the Jets in overtime despite the Jets’ best efforts to blow it.
The Jags’ D is weird; they’re ranked first against the pass and second-to-last vs. the run. With Andrew Luck still out, the Colts lean on the run, and an injury to Robert Turbin has opened up more work for Marlon Mack, clearly their best RB. If they do have to pass, QB Jacoby Brissett has proven he is capable. He’s definitely better than Bortles. Jags’ RB Leonard Fournette is a problem, but I’ll take the points for sure.
Carolina Panthers (-3) over CHICAGO BEARS
I’m going away from the home dogs with my third pick, but leaning on another guiding principle from a past life. When the public swings too heavily in one direction, hop on the opposite boat. At the time of this writing, 84 percent of the action is on the Bears in this game, which is a bit mind-boggling. Rookie Mitch Trubisky hasn’t eclipsed 130 yards passing in either of his first two games, and the team is relying very heavily on RB Jordan Howard. The Panthers’ run defense takes a hit if LB Luke Kuechly can’t play, but it’s still a solid unit facing a one-dimensional offense.
Chicago’s defense is no great shakes, and they’ll be tasked with slowing down a red-hot Cam Newton. He’s found his stride, and he has some legit weapons with WR Devin Funchess emerging and RB Christian McCaffery serving as a de facto wide receiver. Giving three points here is a steal, and it’s odd there’s so much faith in the Bears.