Best ADP Values at Each Position

So far this week we have discussed my favorite deep sleepers, and some undervalued veterans flying way under the radar. These next four players are all being drafted, but they are not being drafted in accordance with their potential. In our game, we call that value. These four players are my favorite value at each position, and players I’d consider myself blessed to land at their ADPs.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (ADP: 55, WR23)

Smith stands out to me as maybe the best value in fantasy this year, which is a pretty bold statement. He’s not going egregiously low in drafts, but this ADP makes him a back-end WR2, and I actually believe there’s WR1 ceiling in Smith. He was limited to 13 games last season, and fell below 1,000 yards after back to back seasons surpassing that mark, but he also set a career-high in touchdowns (8), maintained a 12 yard per catch mark, and registered a career-best catch rate of 76.4%.

Smith was efficient in an offense that attempted the fewest passes in the NFL. Philadelphia was the only team in football to attempt fewer than 450 passes, and he was still able to score the most touchdowns he ever has despite the decreased volume and some injuries. There were deep valleys that accompanied Smith’s peaks, but they were system, scheme and volume related vs. any decline in Smith’s play. In seven games in which Smith saw at least seven targets, he went for 70+ yards six times, broke 100 yards twice and scored five of his touchdowns. He also proved that despite his size, he’s not only an effective outside receiver option, but an elite one.

Smith embarrassed defenders in man coverage to the tune of 78.3%, a 95th percentile mark, and he was also able to overcome his size deficit in press which he torched at an 80% clip (91st percentile). He shows a little bit of an issue down the field on nine routes and corners – possibly where his stature affects him a bit – but in every other facet of receiving he’s not just good, he’s phenomenal. A technician of the highest order, Smith puts up video game success rates on digs (93.1%), posts (82.1%), curls (81.6%) and slants (83.7%). He’s open all the time, at all levels of the field, and he also killed zone at an 81.5% rate, which is important as teams will limit man coverage vs. Jalen Hurts due to the threat he poses as a rusher.

Hurts has limitations as a passer, the Philly offense figures to be run heavy again, and yes, their defense is projected to be elite which can force run-heavy game scripts. I don’t care. I refuse to let those kinds of factors dissuade me from rostering one of the best WRs in the game in an offense that scored the seventh-most points in the NFL last year.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears (ADP: 59, RB23)

People just don’t like Swift. I do, because I like very fast running backs who produce fantasy relevant numbers wherever they go. Yes, Swift misses holes, and no he’s never delivered the superstar numbers many of us thought were coming when he was taken out of Georgia in 2020. But he was the Bears’ lead back in 2024, and he put up over 1,300 total yards in an offense that was broken with one of the most inefficient QBs in the NFL in rookie Caleb Williams.

Swift was dreadful for the first three weeks of the season, rushing for 78 yards combined in those games. Then, his next four games were all 70+ rushing yards and a touchdown. From Week 3 through Week 18 Swift averaged 87.9 yards from scrimmage and he scored all six of his touchdowns. Now, the entire Bears’ offensive coaching staff has changed, Williams has a season of experience in the books, the WR hierarchy makes much more sense and, most importantly, the new coaches didn’t feel the need to beef up the RB room. Swift enters 2024 as the clear and obvious starter. Roschon Johnson and rookie Kyle Monangai aren’t threats to his lead status, and he proved he could withstand a bell cow workload. There aren’t many three-down lead backs anymore in the league, and the Chicago Bears are treating D’Andre Swift like one of them. I’m glad others are willfully not seeing what’s going on, because it’s value for the smart guys.

Tyler Warren, TE, Colts (ADP: 99, TE10)

We now have clarity on the Colts’ QB situation, and while I would have gone with Anthony Richardson for the potential vs. Daniel Jones and the illusion of safety, we’re here now. It’s a bit of a hot take, but my stance was that Richardson was the better option for the Colts’ WRs because he wasn’t afraid to throw the ball down the field. Jones will be more accurate, but only because Richardson was historically inaccurate. Jones benefits by comparison, but he’s not likely to be winging it down the field as much. That’s good news for Warren, who has the upside to be a chunk play machine but he’s going to rack up lots of those yards after the catch.

Warren’s a tremendous athlete, but not in the Tony Gonzalez/Jimmy Graham mold. Warren is hell on wheels, and he’s a guy whom you want to get the ball in space so he can run people over or run right by them. That’s a perfect player for Jones in this offense; clearly Indianapolis is prioritizing protecting the football and moving the chains. Warren caught 104 passes last year, second in the nation, and his 1,233 receiving yards were seventh-most in college football. These are numbers that are bonkers for a TE, and Warren was operating in a Penn State offense that didn’t feature top-flight receivers relieving defensive attention.

The Colts aren’t a team many people are high on, but head coach Shane Steichen has architected some strong offenses in Philadelphia, and has a roster here that’s pretty loaded with skill talent and an offensive line that was just outside the Top 10 in pass blocking in 2024. We have seen rookie TEs finish at or near the top of the position in back to back seasons, and it’s shocking that Warren’s gaudy college production hasn’t caused fantasy managers to vastly overdraft him. The measured approach surprises me, and I see a Top 5 TE going as the TE10. That’s not just value, it’s league-winning stuff.  

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (ADP: 104, QB11)

We’ve arrived at what might be the most eyeroll-inducing choice on the list. Dak Prescott has been around the block so many times that everyone’s bored. Since breaking his leg, running has become a thing of the past for him as well, and all the negative headlines swirling around the Cowboys this summer has just given them a bad vibes stigma. Great!!! Let’s cash in.

Elite pocket passers have become one of the richest sources of fantasy value in our game, but they’re like oil wells. You have to drill in just the right spot to strike it rich, and for us, we need to throw a dart at the right pocket passer. Of course, it helps when you’re not drafting them at an ADP that’s painful at all. Last year drafting C.J. Stroud hurt, but mostly because he was a Top 5 round choice. I was all over Joe Burrow last season,  when he was going outside the Top 60. Here, Prescott isn’t even in the Top 100!

The drawbacks are clear. Prescott doesn’t run anymore, and he’s very injury prone. In fact, he’s missed significant time in three of his last five seasons. But when he’s healthy, Prescott consistently clears the marks we want to see from his player archetype and becomes a valuable contributor. In 2021 Prescott threw for 4,449 yards and 37 touchdowns. In 2023, he threw for 4,516 yards and 36 touchdowns while turning CeeDee Lamb into the overall WR1. The common denominator? Played all season. Ditto as far back as 2019, when Prescott threw for 4,902 yards and 30 touchdowns.

This season, in addition to a clear history of him being a fantasy rock when healthy, I can even envision him eclipsing 5,000 yards. Dallas’ running game figures to be abysmal, with a flawed trio of Javonte Williams, rookie Jaydon Blue and Miles Sanders vying for work. Lamb is still present in his physical prime, and they added George Pickens from the Steelers, a stroke of genius in providing an almost literally perfect complement to Lamb. This offense has been screaming for a traditional, dominant X receiver to play on the outside opposite Lamb, who operates best toggling between the flanker and the slot. We’ve seen Dak amass silly numbers before, and now he’s in maybe the best scenario he’s been in yet in terms of an environment designed to breed pass production.

This ADP is basically free. The masses aren’t seeing the vision, and dominance is yours for the taking. You can load up for 9-10 rounds on depth, and steal a possible Top 5 QB after pick 100. Let’s get the gold.