Stand On Business Players: Predicting The Players I Am Sure Will Beat Their ADP

Throughout the winter and summer I have been writing about players that could outperform their ADPs, break out, or become elite options. But today, I will stand on business and actually predict the success. These are not me presenting data for you to make your decisions, these are players I feel strongly about being in the wrong place ADP-wise. Enjoy.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers (ADP: 30, RB14)

Hampton at this ADP is a bit risky because he is going ahead of established names like Alvin Kamra and Breece Hall, but his talent is overwhelming. This will be a hot take, but in researching the rookies for fantasy, Hampton’s film and highlights were my favorite among the entire 2025 RB class. The only thing holding me back from making him my top rookie RB at the time was being in Los Angeles and having to contend with Najee Harris. Well, Harris injured himself in the offseason with fireworks and threw the door wide open for Hampton. This is a player who, in college, posted back to back seasons with over 1,500 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns. In 2024 he eclipsed 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored 17 touchdowns.

Hampton has prototype size and speed for a bell cow workload, he has logged 250 carries in back to back seasons with the North Carolina Tar Heels, and he’s in a healthy offensive environment with the Chargers where the running game is emphasized. This ADP is already pretty high, but he can definitely be a Top 10 back.

George Pickens, WR, Cowboys (ADP: 60, WR25)

Pickens has a bad rap from being a malcontent in Pittsburgh, and while his highlight reel can go up against anyone’s, the consistent production hasn’t been there, and his final stat lines have yet to match his prodigious talent. That’s going to change in 2025. Pickens was a bit miscast as the Steelers’ WR1 because he’s a pure outside guy whose best work is down the field. His work against man coverage was great last year, and his success vs. press coverage was stellar. His work against zone coverage left much to be desired. Still, the Cowboys have a bona fide WR1 in CeeDee Lamb on the team, whose best role is toggling between the flanker and slot and burning defenses at every level because his route running has no weaknesses. What he and this offense have desperately needed is a complement, and Pickens fits like a glove.

Pickens posted dominant success rates on posts, corners and outs, while putting up a very respectable 55.6% success rate on nine routes. He also was automatic on slants – 82.4% win rate – which makes him really tough to handle because he’ll torture with those until you overcommit, and now you’ve given up a bomb shot. Pickens hasn’t had the luxury of a reliable QB like Tee Higgins has in Cincinnati, or that D.K. Metcalf, who ironically has replaced him, had in Seattle. Pickens is coming into an offense with an established QB that needs exactly what he brings to the table. Look at Higgins’ ADP, because that’ll be where Pickens is this time next year.

Rome Odunze, WR, Bears (ADP: 78, WR36)

Odunze was the forgotten rookie of last season. Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey all went off, while Marvin Harrison Jr. stumbled and took all our ire. Odunze was just off on the Bears, running routes and not being targeted enough. We’ve seen so many successful rookies now that the idea of second-year breakouts has become a little quaint. Odunze is a classic second-year breakout candidate. Odunze profiled as right on par with all of the above-mentioned rookies, with college stats to rival any of them. Last season he was also potentially overloaded in the Bears’ chaotic offense, when the roles seemed to be pretty clear. Odunze should’ve been the X, D.J. Moore the flanker, and Keenan Allen the slot. That isn’t how it went down though, and that was to Odunze’s detriment.

This is a player who, as a rookie, was beating press at a 78.9% clip (87th percentile) and beating man at a 72.2% rate. His route success points to a player who can consistently bash defenses in the intermediate and deep parts of the field; 86.4% on the dig route, 89.7% on the out route, 80.9% on the curl, 78.3% on the slant, and even 56.4% on the nine. With Keenan Allen out of the picture, and rookie Luther Burden III entering, and profiling very clearly as a slot player in Year 1, I think we’ll see less moving around for Odunze. Typically the more variation the better, but Odunze is still young and developing himself, and I am excited to see what he does with stable outside reps.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (ADP: 137, QB20)

Yup, I’m going for it. Trevor Lawrence’s ADP just doesn’t make sense and I’m planting my flag. 2024 was nasty work for everyone except Brian Thomas Jr. in Jacksonville, and while Lawrence has fallen well short of the “generational” tag that was put on him as a prospect, he’s still capable of great things. And that’s not speculation, we have seen it.

While Lawrence has never had his TD spike season, that’ll come. We saw Lawrence throw for more than 4,000 yards in both 2022 and 2023. Lawrence will have the best WR corps of his career in 2025, with Thomas Jr. entrenched as a high-end WR1, and superstar rookie Travis Hunter looming as another massive threat. They also traded for Tim Patrick as quality depth, and Parker Washington remains as well as a Swiss Army knife pass catcher. We know he can hit the necessary yardage, and we just need a bit of TD luck for this to be an insane value. And while players like Baker Mayfield and Bo Nix get boosted because of their rushing capability, Lawrence isn’t afforded the same favor. He’s rushed for three or more touchdowns in each of the last three seasons, and averaged at least 3.6 attempts per game in each of his first three seasons, with last year dipping due to injury.