Veteran Values: Undervalued Old Guys
We discussed some of the deepest possible sleepers yesterday, and I want to continue providing some deep cuts that can serve as valuable roster depth available very late in drafts. Unlike the super deep sleepers, these are players that will be drafted in most leagues, albeit pretty damn late. They might not have the highest of ceilings, but you’ll be happy you have them.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Broncos (ADP: 97, RB34)
Dobbins’ arrival in Denver immediately cooled my heavy interest in rookie R.J. Harvey, whom I had as my No. 2 rookie for this season. It’s safe to say that I no longer have him there, and it’s because I think Dobbins is a very good RB, and someone who has a very strong chance to lead this team in carries.
Durability is always the concern for Dobbins, who has never played a full season nor topped 200 carries, but when he’s on the field he’s always effective. Dobbins was an afterthought in drafts last season, well behind Gus Edwards in Los Angeles despite always playing ahead of Edwards in Baltimore, and Dobbins assumed control quickly. He opened the season with back to back games with more than 130 rushing yards, scoring in each of them, and averaged almost 85 total yards per game through the first 10 weeks before getting hurt. Dobbins averaged a healthy 4.6 yards per carry in that span, in line with his career 5.2 mark, and making him an ideal candidate for tons of early down work. When you look at how Sean Payton has managed his backfields in New Orleans, he’s long utilized two-man committees to great effect; nothing about Dobbins’ presence means Harvey can’t be a fantasy asset, but their ADPs are out of whack.
Harvey’s skill set and size lends itself to an Alvin Kamara-esque role. I don’t like assigning “roles” from the past in new scenarios, but it’s clear Dobbins makes sense as a banger with explosive capabilities, and Harvey makes sense as a more limited usage/efficiency play and passing down weapon. But Harvey is going nearly 50 picks ahead of his backfield mate, so that tells me either the community believes he’s going to be scoring a lot of long touchdowns, or they are severely underestimating Dobbins. Dobbins has RB2 ceiling, and could potentially have double-digit touchdowns if Denver’s offense hums, so if he gets there this ADP is an absolute steal.
Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers (ADP: 146, RB51)
White is not in such an even split. He entered 2024 as the starter, but was outplayed by Bucky Irving and became the second fiddle. Still, he got to 1,006 yards from scrimmage in a high-powered Bucs offense and caught 50+ passes for the third consecutive season. White is primarily a pass-catching back, which is wonderful for fantasy, and I do expect his role to remain sizable in this offense despite Irving’s emergence.
Let’s be clear, I’m a massive fan of Irving’s work. I believe he’s well worth his ADP, and to be a premier RB1. White is not a threat to Irving, but that doesn’t mean White is a total afterthought. Irving’s not a bruiser, and the Bucs would be smart to use him more like Jahmyr Gibbs than Christian McCaffery. In that world, White is still going to handle entire drives, and also he could maintain his passing down role. Of course, Irving was one of the best pass-catching backs in the NFL, but he can catch the ball on early downs! Irving was also a terrible pass blocker, so in obvious passing situations, White is the better option and also a capable receiver. White’s snap rates declined steadily as 2024 wore on, but he finished the year with a 55.5% snap count. If he’s around that number this season, which is feasible, White will be a sneaky good emergency play when injuries/bye weeks start biting.
Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers (ADP: 143, WR52)
Allen had such a down year by his standards that it makes some sense that his ADP has him buried on draft boards. At age 33, it’s fair to think that Father Time has begun to erode his usefulness. But Allen was in a very bad situation that was hard to foresee; at the outset of the 2024 campaign it looked like the Bears had an embarrassment of riches for their rookie QB, but what played out was a mess of unclear roles and bad usage.
The last time we saw Allen with the Chargers, in 2023, he put up a career high in receptions (108), amassed the second-most yards in his career (1,243) and scored seven touchdowns. He returns to QB Justin Herbert who supported that monster season, albeit no longer the Chargers’ WR1. Expecting that 2023 campaign would be foolhardy, but there’s no reason to think Allen cannot be highly productive in this environment. While the Bears were determined to play Allen outside often, despite having D.J. Moore as an ideal flanker and Rome Odunze as a natural X, Los Angeles can have Allen operate primarily out of the slot. Allen was never a burner, but as he’s aged, his bread and butter is separation on short and intermediate routes, stuff that lends itself to being on the inside, or on the flanker. He can toggle between those roles interchangeably with Ladd McConkey, and let rookie Tre Harris and Quentin Johnston stretch the field.
It's alarming to see that he put up just 744 yards in 15 games, but the Bears’ offense was toxic. He’s back with one of the NFL’s best QBs as opposed to a raw rookie learning the ropes, his role will be clearer, and he showed as much TD upside last year as he ever has before. It’s probably a stretch to think Allen can be a real-deal WR2, but a high-end WR3 is in the range of outcomes, with an even higher floor in half and full-PPR formats.
Marquise Brown, WR, Chiefs (ADP 169, WR60)
Brown is just not on anybody’s radar, while Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy are Top 60 picks. Rice is potentially going to be suspended for half the NFL season, and Worthy caught only 59 passes and was under 650 yards. It’s been discussed here and in the Chiefs team preview the limitations that are evident with Worthy, but safe to say there’s no way to consider him a safe pick at his ADP. Meanwhile, we have Brown, who has done more in the NFL than Rice and Worthy combined, and does exactly what Patrick Mahomes needs. He stretches the field.
Mahomes’ numbers the last two seasons have been dismal by his standards, and while most people are flummoxed by it, the answer is obvious. Since losing Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs have faced nonstop two high safeties to take away deep shots, and they haven’t had the talent at WR to overcome it. At Brown’s best, he put up 91 receptions, 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. He has 28 career touchdowns, and exactly half of them are from 20+ yards out. Brown is built to sting teams deep down the field, and even in his limited 2024 action he posted a 57.1% win rate on nine routes. When Rice is available, the roles are less clear, because Worthy could occupy Brown’s flanker spot, or he could just not be on the field. When Rice is out, things get clearer, as Worthy will be in the slot and Brown will be at flanker. Brown is a much more well-rounded pass catcher who can do damage without having plays schemed for him. If Rice misses 6-8 games, it’s very plausible that Brown is Mahomes’ No. 1 receiver; that hasn’t always meant much for fantasy, but since Hill’s departure he hasn’t had a guy like Brown in that role.