2025 Bad Values: Bo Nix Beat Expectations, But Don't Pay For It Now
Fantasy managers are always going to be more excited about new exciting players, and be bored with steadier, established ones, and that can create bad values come Draft Day. One player whose current ADP is screaming that he’s being drafted at his ceiling is Broncos QB Bo Nix.
Nix for sure won people games, and undoubtedly aided in playoff pushes. He ended the 2024 season on an absolute heater, throwing multiple TD passes in every game from Week 13-18, and throughout the season showed that his spike games could be prolific. Nix produced five games with three or more passing TDs, and threw at least two TD passes 10 times. His final season line of 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions were strong numbers, particularly for a rookie QB who entered the season with low expectations, but his current ADP of No. 69 overall (QB8) turned a nice player who was a big value into a player who needs to improve on his fantastic rookie year just to justify his draft price.
Many are dreaming of Drew Brees part two thanks to Sean Payton targeting Nix in the draft and selecting him ahead of where he was expected to go. The blowup games and accuracy he showed continued to feed the narrative. I’m here to tell you that expecting anyone to be Drew Brees, or even close to Drew Brees, is a recipe to be very disappointed. Those numbers Nix put up were awesome for a free agent pickup. Now that he’s being asked to perform as a Top 10 QB, folks will be expecting 4,000+ yards and 30+ TD passes while taking it as a given that Nix’s numbers will go up. We saw this logic applied to C.J. Stroud last season in Houston, and his ADP rocketed to No. 50 overall. He turned in a mediocre statistical sophomore campaign, and it wound up being extremely damaging to those who drafted him. Nix’s ADP isn’t quite as ludicrous as Stroud’s was, but that’s partly due to Nix working with a far less impressive crew of pass-catchers.
Courtland Sutton is a strong X receiver, but he’s only topped 80 receptions once in his career (last season), and gone over 1,000 yards twice. He’s the clear-cut WR1 of this offense, and the biggest addition to the pass-catching group was veteran TE Evan Engram. Hardly inspiring. The rest of Nix’s receiving corps consists of Devaughn Vele, a very limited possession receiver, Marvin Mims, who profiles as a gadget play-specific player, and Troy Franklin, a second-year WR who finished as PFF’s No. 123-ranked wideout. Denver’s bigger investments were in the running game, signing J.K. Dobbins and drafting R.J. Harvey, signaling that the ground game is likely to be the focal point of their offense rather than Nix’s right arm. It’s not a stretch to see Nix’s 5.1% TD rate dip from last season, especially since Denver had one of the NFL’s least efficient running games and it’s been totally overhauled.
In addition to the red flags, it’s worth it to see where other QBs of Nix’s ilk are going. He is being drafted directly ahead of Kyler Murray (No. 84 overall) and Jared Goff (No. 87 overall). Murray offers a far higher floor due to his rushing capabilities, and Goff has thrown for over 4,400 yards in three straight seasons. Why would you reach for Nix? Trevor Lawrence of the Jaguars is being drafted No. 122 overall as the QB19, and he has two 4,000+-yard seasons on his resume, plus a brand new offensive-minded head coach, and elite WR1 (Brian Thomas Jr.), and the No. 2 overall pick (Travis Hunter) at his disposal. And Lawrence essentially runs as much as Nix did last year, so the ground advantage is minimal. The goal isn’t to draft Nix, it’s to draft the numbers Nix put up at a point in the draft that is advantageous. If you are miffed that you missed on Nix last season, don’t throw good money in after bad. Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, C.J. Stroud, Drake Maye and Trevor Lawerence are all QBs being drafted after pick No. 100. Do that instead and beef up your skill position depth.