Low Risk High Reward: Trevor Lawrence Hate Has Gone Too Far

We have discussed some players whose early ADP makes it very clear that they won’t be good values on Draft Day, but the reverse is always true too. Every season there are players with late average draft position (ADP) that are just screaming value due to their upside. One of the most obvious examples this season is Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence was the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 and billed as a generational talent, the likes of which we hadn’t seen since Andrew Luck. We’re entering Year 5 for Lawrence and, well, he hasn’t been close to Andrew Luck. But very, very few in NFL history have been as talented as Luck, and definitely not right away. Lawrence has had some pretty great seasons, and some compelling reasons for falling short too. That’s now been washed away from the collective memory, replaced by shinier new toys, and that leaves Lawrence with a current ADP of No. 124 overall (QB20), and gives us an opportunity to steal a potential QB1.

We know with pass-first QBs that we want them to be at 4,000+ yards, and throwing for 30+ TDs in order to compete with the players who are just churning out more efficient points on the ground. Lawrence suffered through an injury-plagued and depressing 2024 campaign, but he had eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark in two of his first three seasons. Both of his 4,000-yard campaigns came with Doug Pederson at the helm. Pederson isn’t the second coming of Don Shula or anything, but he’s a quality offensive mind and his arrival coincided with Lawrence rising significantly from the ashes of a rookie year that Urban Meyer set on fire. Lawrence is now about to be coached by Liam Cohen, the hottest name of the offseason in terms of offensive coaching, and a man who helped Baker Mayfield reach his ceiling after a similarly disappointing start to his career after being picked first overall.

Lawrence will be in a good scheme this year, and he has one of the most important elements for a QB breakout: the WR1. Brian Thomas Jr. was a true WR1 pretty much immediately as a rookie, and the Jaguars invested heavily in the position again spending the No. 2 overall pick on Travis Hunter, a prospect considered generational due to his ability to play offense and defense. Early indications are that Hunter will focus on being a WR this season, and that’s good news for Lawrence if you like rookies that Reception Perception calls reminiscent of Odell Beckham Jr.

It should also be acknowledged that while Lawrence isn’t going to run like the elite dual threat QBs, he’s surely a weapon that Jacksonville utilizes on the ground. Lawrence is a high-level athlete, and healthy Lawrence runs, regardless of the guy on the sideline in the headset. Lawrence averaged almost 20 yards per game on the ground in his first two seasons, and has rushed for 3+ TDs in each of the last three seasons. He also averaged 4.1 rushing attempts per game in his first three seasons, comparable to the likes of Kyler Murray, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. Those names are relevant, because this next part is the main thrust of why he is such a value.

Here are some QBs being drafted ahead of Lawrence, but pretty close: Jordan Love (No. 114), Drake Maye (No. 117), C.J. Stroud (No. 118) and J.J. McCarthy (No. 123). Here are some other QBs going well ahead of Lawrence: Caleb Williams (No. 86), Brock Purdy (No. 97). We mentioned that Lawrence has two 4,000-yard seasons, none of these QBs have more than one. Lawrence has 10 career games with 300+ yards, and of these QBs only Purdy matches him with 10. Stroud has eight such games, and no one else had more than four. So none of these QBs have shown a demonstrably higher ceiling either in game or season-long. Narrative is a driving factor in Lawrence’s ADP, and we know this because just last season Stroud was a Top 50 pick, and now he’s hovering in Lawrence’s range. Why pay the freight for Caleb Williams almost three rounds earlier when Williams has yet to prove he can put up Lawrence’s numbers? Why take a player in McCarthy who has never played an NFL snap, or draft Maye, whose rushing output is similar to Lawrence, who has worse pass catchers, and who has zero career 300-yard games, and only three games with over 250?

Lawrence has proven he can hit the 4,000 yards. He has the talent to get to 30 or more touchdown passes with a bit of luck, and we know that stat can be fickle. He has pass catchers who can take short passes and turn them into massive plays, or deliver on deep shots, and he has a head coach who turned Tampa Bay into an offensive juggernaut with a bit of a reclamation project at QB who was a former No. 1 overall pick. Oh, and he’s an above-average rusher for the position. Lawrence is set up for a big season, and because he’s a Jaguar, nobody is paying attention. Take the value and run.