Leap to Elite: Khalil Shakir Can Go From Bills WR1 To Fantasy WR1

If you’re looking for a WR who can be considered an elite option by next year’s Draft Day, might I propose someone who has already broken out, has proven to be a very fantasy relevant player, and who catches passes in an elite offense from arguably the best QB in football? Khalil Shakir just might be your guy!

Shakir wasn’t elite last season by the numbers, but he was very strong. He was by far the most consequential pass catcher for Josh Allen in a season in which Allen took home an MVP award. He finished the campaign with 76 receptions, 821 yards and four touchdowns. Shakir’s numbers in each of those categories have risen in each of his three NFL seasons, but the leap from Year 2 to Year 3 was dramatic. Shakir led Buffalo in targets, receptions and yards, and his touchdown total was second; clearly, Allen loved spreading the ball around. Shakir finished inside PFF’s Top 25 WRs, and none of his fellow WRs from last season, or any who are joining this year (Josh Palmer, Elijah Moore), were inside the Top 60.

Shakir led the team in first downs (35), 10 ahead of Mack Hollins who was second, and he also was second on the team in red zone targets (10). Shakir caught 90% of his red zone targets, scoring on two of them, with the next highest red zone reception total being five courtesy of reserve RB Ty Johnson. When Buffalo needs to move the chains, or they’re moving the ball through the air in striking distance of the end zone, Shakir is far and away the best option.

To this point, Shakir hasn’t been elite in the traditional sense. We often think of players like Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson when we think “elite,” which is to say players who are dominating at all three levels of the field and are comfortable dominating from the outside. That was NOT Shakir. As heavily used as he was, the Bills deployed him with clear intent. 62.1% of Shakir’s routes were slants, flats, screens and “other” according to his Reception Perception profile. His success rates on slants, which made up a chunky 27.8% of his routes, was 83.1%. He was at 91.3% in the flats, and 100% success on the screens. Shakir was an ace against zone coverage, turning in an 80.5% success rate (66th percentile), which is critical to the Bills who face below average man coverage rates thanks to Allen’s mobility.

Now, Shakir is not a complete receiver at this point. He was in the 30th percentile vs. man coverage, and the 37th percentile vs. press, although he only faced press 5.2% of the time. His success rates on corners, outs, nines and posts were all below average, which tells us that he’s pretty reliant on volume for his production and he’s not really accumulating points efficiently. That’s not an issue if the volume is consistently there, but Allen hasn’t shown to be a QB who locks on to a WR.

So if we’re buying a leap into elite territory, how does it happen? First, the Bills scored 32 rushing touchdowns last year, with 16 coming from James Cook, and 12 from Allen himself. If that negatively regresses, and we should all be projecting fewer rushing TDs for Cook, those can become passing TDs with Shakir being the most-targeted man in the offense. We also have to bank on improvement from him in Year 4 against man coverage, as well as on intermediate and deep routes. Shakir doesn’t have to suddenly become a player who is taking the top off of defenses, but some increased usage down the field would go a long way for him, especially since he was third in the NFL with 597 yards after the catch (YAC).

Maybe you’re someone who prefers the more traditional skill set for predicting leaps into elite territory. I’ve written about the possibility of that for a guy like Rome Odunze here. But there’s more than one way to skin a cat. Shakir has awesome hands, is unguardable on short, quick routes and is a beast once the ball is in his hands. Marry those factors with being the No. 1 option for an MVP QB, and the case is easy to make. Plus, Shakir’s floor is pretty much low-end WR2 and a weekly FLEX, so failure to hit the elite ceiling doesn’t equate to a failed season.