Low Risk High Reward: Tyler Warren Isn't Getting Enough Rookie Hype

The conventional wisdom has long been that rookie TEs are an unwise investment, and that buying the hype and overdrafting them is a recipe for disaster. History says that’s true; only nine rookie TEs have ever crossed the 700-yard mark, which is hardly a dominant number, but one that makes for at least a useful fantasy TE. But dig deeper, and you’ll see that things may be changing. While nine rookie TEs in history meeting that threshold is a meager number, we have seen it happen three times in the last four years. That’s why Tyler Warren is a name, and ADP, to watch this summer.

Warren’s college production was fairly unremarkable until last season, when he absolutely exploded for Penn State with 104 receptions, 1,233 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. This quantum leap is potentially suspicious, but it likely has more to do with Penn State’s previous offenses being pedestrian, as well as Warren improving dramatically in his fifth collegiate season. Those numbers are staggering on their own for a college TE, but what’s even more impressive is that he was the focal point of their offense; that is notable, as TEs are rarely an offense’s fulcrum. Warren seems to be a logical choice as the next rookie to be a big deal for fantasy managers. He has elite draft pedigree, just like the last few rookies that were mentioned earlier; Kyle Pitts and Brock Bowers were both Top 15 picks, while Sam LaPorta was an early second rounder. Warren actually put up far superior numbers to all of them when comparing their final seasons, with Pitts having the edge on Warren in receiving touchdowns.

So Warren measures up well against these other TEs who have proven to be very good (Pitts) as rookies, or in the case of LaPorta and Bowers, TE1 overall as rookies. And Warren has an element of his game that none of them came into the league with. Pitts had shocking athleticism, Bowers came in as one of the most polished route runners at the position we’ve ever seen as a rookie, and LaPorta was an efficiency king. But Warren is a true weapon on the ground, allowing him to have designed touches in the red zone and near the goal line that relieve some of the pressure of Indianapolis’ questionable QB situation. Warren rushed 26 times for 218 yards and four touchdowns in 2024 for the Nittany Lions, and with a bit of a crowded pass-catching corps on the Colts additional ways for him to do damage is very welcome.

Now, one thing all the rookies since 2002 with 700+ yards have in common was heavy target share. All five of them drew at least 110 targets, and that could be a struggle for Warren. While he nearly had 110 receptions in college, let alone targets, Warren has some stiff competition for looks from WRs Michael Pittman Jr. and Josh Downs. Of the 496 pass attempts from the Colts in 2024, 218 of them went to Pittman and Downs, while 75 of them went to TEs. If Indy’s underwhelming collection of TEs could draw 75, it’s not a stretch to see Warren’s floor being about 90 or so, especially if Daniel Jones can beat out Anthony Richardson for the starting job. Jones won’t make anyone forget about Petyon Manning or Andrew Luck, but he’s certainly a more accurate thrower than Richardson, and his presence will encourage more passing and more chances for Warren to make plays.

Now, I understand that I am propping up a rookie at a onesie position on a team without clarity on who will be starting at QB. And those options duking it out for the job are Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. If the ADP was treating him like a  lock to perform like LaPorta or Bowers did as rookies, or even Pitts, I’d be telling you steer clear. But we’ve gone over the upside for Warren, and his current ADP is No. 122 (TE10). At this ADP, even reaching for him by a round or two can provide tremendous value, and if it’s a complete whiff it wouldn’t really hurt, since the names at other positions you’d be passing on are depth RBs and WRs, and QB2s. Nailing early picks is always nice, but leagues are won by grabbing the massive breakouts in the mid to late rounds. Warren is going eight picks ahead of Jonnu Smith. One of them has Top 5 TE upside, and the other is a TE with one fantasy relevant season out of eight who just changed teams. I do expect Warren’s ADP to rise, but if this is the starting point, it’s hard to see how he doesn’t pay dividends this season.