What Went Wrong? Why C.J. Stroud Had One of 2024's Most Damaging Seasons

C.J. Stroud was one of 2024’s biggest disappointments, and likely one of the most negative influences on teams across our game. Not only was he simply mediocre from a stat standpoint – which is what we care about! – but he was expensive in drafts. He was a Top 50 pick by ADP last year, and the QB5 off the board. That’s a high price to pay for a non-running QB, and his 2024 campaign was a hard lesson in why that is so risky.

We want about 4,000 yards and 35 touchdowns from QBs who aren’t going to produce on the ground. Those numbers can be stretched a bit if the yardage or TD numbers are crazy, but that’s the general wisdom. If you don’t think a QB can hit those, and the QB isn’t a runner, then you shouldn’t be investing significant draft capital in them. Stroud surpassed 4,000 yards as a rookie (4,108) and fell short on the TD front (23). But another year of Nico Collins and Tank Dell, plus adding Stefon Diggs to the mix had us dreaming. That was a dangerous game to play, because we’ve never seen Stroud do it. I was bullish on Joe Burrow, whose injury-marred 2023 campaign sank his ADP to QB7, because we have seen Burrow put up those numbers every time he was healthy. Stroud is a skilled player for sure, but that doesn’t always mean those TDs will come. Everything seemed lined up for him, but several things out of his control conspired to tank his sophomore season.

Stroud’s vaunted receiving corps didn’t last the full season. Diggs was lost for the year after eight games, which hurt the passing game because he’d been a very reliable and productive high-volume receiver. Nico Collins was limited to 12 games as well, while his deep ball chemistry with Tank Dell never got on track. Dell’s volume took a big hit with Diggs in the mix, and he served more as a deep threat. That was problematic, because Houston’s offensive line rarely allowed Stroud the time to throw deep. Houston’s offensive line ranked just 21st per PFF as a pass blocking unit, and posted the sixth-worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL (9.1%) per FTN Fantasy. From a raw numbers perspective, Houston allowed the third-most sacks in the league (54). These factors clarify why such a talented QB was limited to 3,727 yards, down 381 from his rookie year, and 20 touchdowns, three fewer than his first season. He also threw 12 interceptions, up from five in 2023. A shoddy offensive line that never allowed him to be comfortable is a massive factor.

Can these numbers be blamed fully on the line, and the loss of Diggs? Well, it may have looked like Stroud took a step back, but he was performing pretty well under the circumstances. He graded out as PFF’s No. 14 QB, with a grade of 79.9. That number was far from elite, but higher than that of Jared Goff, who helmed the NFL’s highest-scoring offense. His completion percentage remained steady, his dropped pass percentage actually rose to 5.1% from 3.8% in 2023, while his bad throw % went down slightly. Simply put, Stroud’s biggest dips were evident in his efficiency down the field. Due to having less time to throw, his air yard stats dropped, as did his yards per attempt, yards per completion and adjusted net yards per attempt. That lines up with major increases in how often he was hit (56 times, up from 38), hurried (66 times, up from 47), and blitzed (154 times, up from 126).  

So what does that mean going forward? Well, we can definitely expect Stroud’s ADP to drop from last season. That’s a good thing. If he can fall to around where Burrow’s was last season, or even further, then we probably have a value on our hands because he has the talent to explode. On the other hand, Diggs is gone, and Tank Dell is also most likely out for the season after a horrific injury in the playoffs. Houston did add Christian Kirk in free agency, which is nice, as well as a pair of rookies in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel that have upside. It’s not as glossy as last year’s WR room, but it’s enough to expect a big year from Stroud. I would be very comfortable with him as a season-long QB provided the ADP is reasonable. Hopefully public sentiment turns too far against him, and he can not only be a solid pick at his ADP, but that it drops to the point he becomes a potentially league-winning value. The potential for a Burrow-esque campaign is still there with Stroud. The key is not paying for it.