Leap to Elite: Rome Odunze's Fantastic Rookie Year Was Hidden By His Stats

Rome Odunze is a player I’m taking a bit of a risk on here. Based on his rookie campaign, he’d be more eligible for a breakout write up than a leap to elite, which usually means that a player can have a first or second round ADP the following year. Very little about Odunze’s rookie production points to that, but a peek under the hood shows that my initial faith in him was not misguided.

Last season’s rookie WR class was among the most hyped in NFL history, and many of them lived up to or exceeded the hype. Odunze was my favorite WR in the group; he wasn’t my top choice for fantasy production in Year 1, but strictly as a football player, I liked him the most. I also was bullish on his potential as a rookie being in an offense that was loaded with talent, and had the No. 1 overall pick at QB in Caleb Williams. So yes, a 54-catch, 734-yard, three touchdown campaign surprised and disappointed me. I was blinded by the array of talent in this offense, and underestimated how that could affect his usage, and underestimated the development that Williams would require.

With that said, despite the meager stats, Odunze was doing good work in 2024. He was used across the formation for the Bears, and he was very successful vs. man (72.2% win rate, 71st percentile). He was good against zone too, putting up a 78.9% success rate good for the 52nd percentile. That’s not amazing, but plenty good enough for a player who profiles as an outside receiver. Where he was jaw-dropping was against press coverage, which he decimated at a 78.9% clip, placing him in the 87th percentile. That’s a dominant number, and it’s especially impressive for a rookie. So what was the issue? Part of it was QB play, which we’ll get to, but the primary issue seemed to be coaching and game planning.

Odunze was treated like a downfield specialist for the Bears last year, with his most-run route being the nine, which was one of his lowest success rates (56.4%). While he’s plenty athletic, Odunze’s best trait is that he’s a technician, and that was evident on his curls, digs and outs, all of which he surpassed 80% success on. He also was rarely ever given layup targets to get him in space; Odunze posted an 83.3% success rate on flat routes, but they made up just 3.9% of his routes run.

Now that Chicago has cleaned house and brought in Ben Johnson, the architect of the dominant Lions offenses of recent memory, Odunze figures to be a central figure to unlock. There is still an issue of a lot of mouths to feed, but Chicago’s second-most targeted receiver from 2024, veteran Keenan Allen, is gone and 121 target are gone with him. Of course, you can’t just transfer those targets to Odunze, especially when high draft capital was spent on TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden in this draft, but it does clarify the pecking order. D.J. Moore will remain the alpha of the WR room in 2025, and Odunze is cleared up to be the second option and also run more of the routes that Allen was occupying. We also can see Odunze lined up as the X receiver more consistently. He spent 61.3% of the snaps on the outside last season, and while varied alignment helps involvement, Odunze’s best usage is clearly on the outside torturing DBs in man who are trying to press him. Burden projects to be best used out of the slot, so we should be able to better predict deployment with this year’s WR room, whereas the overlapping skills of Moore, Allen and Odunze made it impossible last year.

So we know the skills are there. We’ve seen prolific stats in college – 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns as a senior at Washington, and over 1,100 yards in his final two seasons – and we know a big target share has been opened up with Allen’s departure. The last step is the development of his QB, Caleb Williams. While Williams was a flop as a rookie who averaged only 208 yards per game despite a star-studded pass-catching corps, it’s safe to say the offensive environment was toxic. The coaching was poor, D.J. Moore was surly, and the offensive line was bad. Ben Johnson can’t fix all of that, but he can bring a sane and reasoned philosophy to this offense and make a concerted effort to highlight the best players.

Caleb Williams had eight games with fewer than 175 passing yards in 2024, which should be impossible with Moore, Odunze and Allen at his disposal. Williams also had four games in which he surpassed 300 yards, and he tossed two touchdown passes in each of those games. The talent broke through plenty in Caleb’s rookie year, it’s about putting him in position to be consistent. Whether he can accomplish that in Year 2 remains to be seen, but Odunze will need that to be an elite player in Year 2.

So at the end of this, I’ve chosen to highlight him as someone who is potentially elite, because I think a breakout is obvious. If he didn’t break out and become a reliable fantasy option this season, I’d be surprised. But with a ceiling that’s even higher than that based on what we saw as a rookie, I’m not doing my job if I didn’t highlight how much upside there is with Odunze at what should be a manageable ADP.