What Went Wrong? Why Marvin Harrison Jr.'s Bust Season Was Our Problem, Not His

Marvin Harrison Jr. entered the NFL with hype as a “generational” talent at WR, and one who was the class of a historically touted rookie WR group. His second round ADP was astronomical for a rookie wide receiver, and he ended the season as a bit of a dud. So what happened, and was his season really as terrible as it felt?

Lets start here. Harrison Jr.’s season was strong for a rookie, and if those numbers failed to deliver for you, that’s because you overdrafted him. I was sounding the alarm ahead of drafts last year, expressing concern that an ADP in the Top 15 overall was pretty crazy for a rookie, regardless of his talent.

“Well…he’s a rookie. This level of prospect has shown in the past that they can deliver big time results in the NFL very quickly, but he’s still never done it before in the pros. And while we’ve seen crazy rookie seasons – think Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson – none of those players were drafted as high as Harrison is right now. Harrison is the highest-drafted rookie WR ever in fantasy, and so while he has the upside of those esteemed players, Harrison has to deliver at that historic level to justify this ADP. That’s just asking a lot of a young player, and it’s also heavily tied to Kyler Murray, who is healthy now but hasn’t played in 16 games since 2020. Love the player, but I won’t be getting him at this elevated price.”

And while this all seems negative, we’re talking about a guy who finished the season with 62 receptions, 885 yards and eight touchdowns. He posted two games with 100+ yards, scoring in both of them, and had five games with 60+ yards and a score. Harrison had flashes, and was a useful receiver on a pretty consistent basis, but he simply fell way short of what a second round pick is supposed to deliver. Of course it didn’t help his perception that Malik Nabers, Ladd McConkey and Brian Thomas Jr. all delivered as elite options as rookies, all with significantly friendlier ADPs. I think we’ve hammered this point enough; Harrison wasn’t terrible, but he was a bust according to ADP and that sentiment could drive his ADP down in Year 2. If so, congratulations. We’ll have a very, very nice value on our hands.

Based on his Reception Perception profile, Harrison Jr.’s production issues were caused much more by his usage rather than his own play or ability. He checked in in the 75th percentile vs. man coverage (73.1% success), the 80th vs. press (76.1% success) and in the 72nd vs. zone (81.1% success). He clears key success rates across the board that paint the picture of a fantasy alpha, and not simply a nice WR2/WR3. Harrison Jr.’s lone knock was that he didn’t quite have top-end speed or athleticism for a WR1. He was fine in those areas, but wasn’t elite there, and it showed up on his nine route success (51.2%), which is well below average. Of course, that was tied for his second-most run route on the year.

The Cardinals were very stubborn with him, possibly due to the rest of the WR room being underwhelming. Harrison Jr. was on the outside 79.7% of the time and on the line of scrimmage for about 80% of snaps. This means that he’s not in motion creating mismatches, and he’s not being fed easy looks that get him in space and inflate his counting stats like Nabers had with the Giants. Harrison’s flat routes, screens and “others” combined to make up just 4.9% of his routes. On top of that, 30.8% of his routes were nines or curls, neither of which were among his most successful routes. Harrison thrived on dig routes; he succeeded at an 87.5% clip which is incredible, and that route alone made up 24.1% of his routes run. That’s great stuff. He was also at 80% or better on corners, posts and comebacks which made up only 15.7% of his routes. That’s not great stuff. His skill set shows he has the chops to hack it as a Tee Higgins-esque outside X receiver, but he’s also shown already he can do more than that and be a nightmare for opposing defenses. As a rookie, they could plan to take him out of games because they knew where he’d be, and what routes he’d be running.

All of this is good news for 2025. What happened last year is set in stone, but NFL coaches usually aren’t idiots. The Cardinals will look at last season and understand it behooves everyone to get this guy the ball more, and to do so in a way that makes the offense harder to defend. Kyler Murray isn’t going to be mistaken for Dan Marino anytime soon, but he can be a pretty prolific passer and he’s surely in the upper half of the NFL on talent alone. Harrison Jr.’s ADP shouldn’t be anywhere near the second round this year, and yet that is actually around where his ceiling is. Harrison Jr. finishing as a Top 5 WR isn’t insane. He’s proven he can get open at all three levels of the field, he is the top WR option for an exciting QB, and he’s adept at beating man, zone or press coverage.

If Harrison Jr. can be had in the third or fourth round this season, snap him up aggressively. The truth here is that nothing went “wrong” for him in 2025. He was a rookie who had a very nice rookie season, who was overdrafted. That’s an us problem, not a Harrison Jr. one.