Stand On Business Players: Predicting The Players I Am Sure Will Beat Their ADP

Throughout the winter and summer I have been writing about players that could outperform their ADPs, break out, or become elite options. But today, I will stand on business and actually predict the success. These are not me presenting data for you to make your decisions, these are players I feel strongly about being in the wrong place ADP-wise. Enjoy!

Breece Hall, RB, Jets (ADP: 32, RB16)

Hall is a player who, not long ago, was a real option as the No. 1 overall pick in drafts. Now, we know he still plays for the perennially disastrous Jets, but he’s not any different a player than he was then. In fact, he’s probably even better. Aside from playing in an offense that most assume won’t function, Hall brings every single aspect you could want to the table from an RB1. And he’s going as an RB2!

Hall managed his first ever 1,000-yard rushing season in 2025 despite Justin Fields and co. operating a dumpster fire offense that struggled to score. Hall put up 350 receiving yards last year, his third straight with 350+ yards through the air, and at least 48 receptions. We know that dual threat RBs are the golden geese of fantasy, and Hall’s receiving stats last year came from QBs who rarely utilize the RB through the air. In 2023, Hall drew 95 targets and caught 76 balls for 591 yards and four scores. And yes, he blew out his knee as a rookie when he looked like he’d be the offensive rookie of the year. Durability still seems to linger as a concern, but Hall has played in 16 or 17 games in each of the past three seasons, totaled over 1,300 yards from scrimmage in each of those seasons, and scored 8+ touchdowns in two of those three.

Last but not least, even if the Jets’ offense collapses again, Hall can still get it done on efficiency. As mentioned in the Jets preview, since 2023, Hall has the eighth-most 20+-yard runs in the NFL (18), and the sixth-most runs of 50+ yards in that span. He’s got very little in-house competition, proven his durability, and can produce on the ground and through the air. This is RB1 stuff, with the only real knock being an aversion to drafting Jets. I get it, but bad teams produce great fantasy players all the time.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (ADP: 38, WR16)

McConkey took a big step back in 2025 from a massive rookie season, and burned people badly in the process. I’m buying that dip baby. The Chargers melted down offensively last season because of a rash of injuries along the offensive line that didn’t just make things harder on QB Justin Herbert, they transformed the offense. When you look at what McConkey actually played like last season, he wasn’t any different than the insane rookie bargain of 2024. McConkey shredded zone at a near 85% clip and almost hit 77% success rate vs. man, 89th and 88th percentile marks, respectively. Essentially, the biggest difference was the time Herbert had to throw, and the style of routes McConkey was allowed to run based on the pressure the QB faced. Now, the Chargers’ line isn’t at full strength entering the season with their big-ticket center sustaining a massive camp injury, but their two star tackles, Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, are back. An improved line should let Herbert return to form, and as Herbert’s top target, McConkey has the goods to be in the mix to lead the NFL in receiving yards.

The numbers McConkey amassed as a rookie were special, and not numbers that are often accumulated by first year players. The fact that his game hasn’t changed means 2025 was a blip on the radar of a superstar receiver. Take advantage of this ADP now because I expect we won’t see it again for a long time.

Justin Herbert, QB, Chargers (ADP: 87, QB9)                 

While we’re talking Chargers, Herbert is my guy this year at QB. It’s been some time now since we have seen a full season of unleashed Herbert, but there’s zero doubt in my mind that it’s lurking. Having Jim Harbaugh as a stabilizing head coach is a big deal, and hiring Mike McDaniel to run the offense has the potential to supercharge Herbert’s stats. We saw Tua Tagovailoa put up monster yardage and accuracy numbers in Miami under McDaniel’s tutelage, and Herbert has none of Tua’s limitations.

Remember, Herbert began 2025 wit a bang, averaging 273.9 yards per game and throwing nearly two touchdowns through the first seven weeks. That span included a 420-yard outburst against the Colts, and saw Herbert throw for multiple touchdowns in four of the games. From that point on, he averaged only 201.6 yards, and threw 13 touchdowns in the final nine games of his season. The line of demarcation was clear, and it’s no surprise that a QB under siege saw his numbers crater. His line is back, his weaponry is unchanged, and he’s got a proven offensive wizard calling plays and only focusing on the offense. Prolific pocket passers have become a goldmine of value, and he’s standing out as the clear breakout.

Brenton Strange, TE, Jaguars (ADP: 172, TE21)

Strange is a deeper cut than usual for this list, but I truly believe he’s going to be a TE1 and he’s not anywhere near that ADP. Strange is suffering from the “too many mouths to feed” narrative, and I’m here to remind everyone that that’s not a thing when the offense is elite. We don’t know for sure that the Jaguars are going to dominate, but they’ve got the ingredients to crush it. It is true that Strange has a lot of competition for looks, but if he gets open like he did last year he’ll have no issue delivering fantasy-relevant production. He missed time last season with injury, but before and after the injury he was regularly churning out games with five or more catches (five in 12 games), and hit 50+ yards five times. He was also putting up start-worthy numbers in the early going when Jacksonville’s offense hadn’t started gelling under Liam Coen. Now we’re in Year 2 with Trevor Lawrence’s breakout having been completed, and it looks like Travis Hunter’s role in the offense has been minimized.

Strange truly looks like a high-floor option, which ain’t nothing at TE, but that also implies a lower ceiling. His ceiling is pretty high as well, and he’s basically going as a free roll in drafts.