MLB 2018 Predictions & Betting Preview: National League
This is a comprehensive preview of the National League for the MLB 2018 season geared toward general observers and casual bettors. Below, you’ll find predictions, over/under recommendations, and some interesting odds for individual player awards.
**Over/Unders are courtesy of MyBookie.
Individual Player Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.
National League East
Washington Nationals (O/U 93.5)
The Nats are the Indians of the NL, rocking the one of the most balanced clubs in baseball. They’re not quite as deep in all facets as the Indians or Astros, but at least in the hitting department they’re loaded. Bryce Harper is the field’s best hope of usurping Mike Trout’s unquestioned title as MLB’s best player, Daniel Murphy is one of the purest hitters in the sport, and Trea Turner might be MLB’s newest star if he can stay on the field. The lineup has no holes, and even the bench is deep.
Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg form a dominant one-two punch atop the rotation, and as long as Strasburg stays healthy those two alone could drag a much less talented club to the postseason. The rest of the rotation may need work; Gio Gonzalez is unlikely to repeat his A+ 2017 campaign, and the rest of the rotation is average. Luckily for the Nats, the bullpen was shored up when they acquired Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler. This team is the most complete squad in the NL. OVER.
Philadelphia Phillies (O/U 78)
The Phillies have a slew of young talent, and because of that talent I overestimated their chances last season. I’m willing to do it again. Rhys Hoskins could be 2018’s Aaron Judge, OF Nick Williams was very solid last year, and Aaron Nola has the look of a potential staff ace. This offseason, Philadelphia has taken the added step of supplementing these young guns and mixing veteran talent in. The offseason signings of Carlos Santana and former Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta add an air of respectability to a club that seems close to breaking out of its losing cocoon. The key to exceeding expectations for them will be their bullpen; it’s got talent, but there are question marks too, and I’m expecting Pat Neshek to emerge as their closer. OVER.
New York Mets (O/U 81.5)
The Mets have the potential to be a playoff contender, but they also have a pretty deep basement. The core of the club is their two aces, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Without the two of them lasting the whole season, everything will fall apart. Offensively, the OF pair of Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto would be very exciting if they weren’t both dealing with injury concerns. The lineup they’ve constructed is strange. They have intriguing youth like Amed Rosario and Dom Smith in the fold, but they’ve also re-signed Jose Reyes and signed washed up 1B Adrian Gonzalez to block Smith. I’m not sure what the plan is, and that’s why I’m going UNDER.
Atlanta Braves (O/U 75.5)
The Braves are on the way back up in terms of talent, but the decision to keep Ronald Acuna in the minors to start the season is, while smart financially, a major indicator that contention isn’t in the plans this year. Aside from Freddie Freeman, the Braves are a mostly light-hitting club who will rely on base running and defense for whatever wins they can scrape. Unfortunately for this power-challenged lineup, they won’t get a ton of support from the starting rotation, headed up by the Jekyll and Hyde-esque Julio Teheran. The bullpen is questionable too, with Arodys Vizcaino, a shaky closer, looking like the only viable pitcher to hold that role. UNDER.
Miami Marlins (O/U 64)
No team had worse press than the Marlins this offseason, who stripped the club of their best players and got precious little in return. Justin Bour is the only hitter putting any fear at all in opposing pitchers, and C J.T. Realmuto is a nice player for a position nearly bereft of legitimately good stats. Beyond them, it’s a bunch of guys who range from slightly above average to well below. The rotation is a horror show, with Jose Urena, he of the 5.20 FIP, as the ace. Woof. This over/under is insanely low, but two teams won just 64 games last year. I think Miami has the goods to be one of the worst teams ever. UNDER.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs (O/U 93)
At first glance the Cubs look like a dominant team on par with the big boys of the AL and the Nationals, but while that’s certainly their ceiling, there are big question marks. Can Kyle Schwarber reach his power potential without being a sinkhole any time he doesn’t park one in the seats? Can Javier Baez contribute with any kind of consistency? Are we sure Addison Russell is good? These are questions that, if the answers are yes, make Chicago a World Series favorite. If not, they could struggle in one of baseball’s deepest divisions. Adding SP Yu Darvish to the rotation is huge, as they lost Jake Arrieta but appear to have upgraded. The starting rotation is going to paper over a lot of slumps from their powerful lineup. Brandon Morrow is a great add in the bullpen, and he will team with Carl Edwards Jr. to form one of the quietly deadly relief tandems in the sport. The rotation, the bullpen, and the combo of Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are enough to paper over their iffy ones if the latter don’t pan out. The Cubs will contend either way, but if things break right they could have the best record in baseball. OVER.
Milwaukee Brewers (O/U 84)
The Brewers were a surprise last season when they finished in second place, and instead of coasting on the goodwill, they decided to build on that success. This offseason they added Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, two high-average, plus defenders for their outfield. Those two will improve their outfield defense as well as be ideal table setters for Travis Shaw and Domingo Santana, two young players who emerged as legitimate run producers. They also have Ryan Braun slotted in as their first baseman, which should preserve him.
The rotation is a concern. Jimmy Nelson was a revelation last year, but he’s set to miss a chunk of the season due to injury. This is my biggest concern for the Brew Crew in a competitive division. The bullpen should be fine; Corey Knebel is very good, and the rest of the arms are fairly reliable veterans. OVER.
St. Louis Cardinals (O/U 85.5)
The Cardinals will compete neck-and-neck with Milwaukee all season, and after a disappointing 2017 they made sure to add firepower to the lineup. OF Marcell Ozuna broke out in Miami last year, and is now projected to provide the middle of the order with pop. He should have plenty of RBI opportunities hitting behind OBP monsters Dexter Fowler and Matt Carpenter.
Carlos Martinez is a legit ace, but the Cards will need a throwback season from Adam Wainwright to support a playoff push. Luke Weaver is promising, but green, and Michael Wacha has to prove he’s more than middle-of-the-rotation fodder.
The bullpen is scary. They’re leaving camp with no set closer, and Luke Gregerson is entering 2018 with an oblique issue. Not good. UNDER.
Pittsburgh Pirates (O/U 73.5)
Pittsburgh’s run as a perennial wildcard team was fun huh? Andrew McCutchen is gone now, and it doesn’t even feel like the Pirates! They signed Corey Dickerson this offseason, but he and Josh Bell are the only power hitters in this lineup, and neither are upper tier sluggers. Starling Marte is going to be relied on heavily, but he’s coming off a PED suspension last year. Pittsburgh is not likely to score a ton.
The rotation is young, and headed up by Ivan Nova, which isn’t great. Jameson Taillon is the guy everyone is hoping will break out. Closer Felipe Rivero is the truth; if they are having a rough season they could likely get a sick haul for him near the trade deadline. I want to say they can get to 74 games, but if I was forced to bet on it that would scare the hell out of me. UNDER.
Cincinnati Reds (O/U 74)
The Reds will hit. Joey Votto is a treasure, and hitters like Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall, while flawed, have serious pop. They’ve also got some underrated infielders like Scooter Gennett and Eugenio Suarez. I like the lineup enough, but their pitching staff is full of holes. Homer Bailey has no business being a frontline starter, and while Luis Castillo is a fantasy darling, I’m not convinced he’s going to be a rock solid starter over a full MLB season just yet. Raisel Iglesias is a pretty nasty closer, and he’s used well by the Reds across multiple innings when necessary. He is a bright spot on a pretty bad team, but he’s someone I’d hang on to rather than deal at the deadline in their inevitable fire sale.
NL West
Los Angeles Dodgers (O/U 96.5)
The Dodgers are once again arguably the deepest team in the NL. They have the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw, and a breakout pitcher in Alex Wood whom they should be very excited about. Rich Hill is an important cog; the guy is never healthy, but when he is he’s lights out. L.A. also benefits from having the best closer in the league in Kenley Jansen.
On offense SS Corey Seager leads the way as he’s become one of baseball’s top young hitters. He and Cody Bellinger are going to be ferocious for years to come. They’re surrounded by zero easy outs 1 through 8, plus their bench is one of MLB’s best. Matt Kemp is vastly overqualified to be a reserve, Enrique Hernandez offers two-way quality at multiple positions, and Austin Barnes is not just a solid backstop, he can also fill in as a second baseman. OVER.
Arizona Diamondbacks (O/U 85.5)
Originally, I had the Giants slotted in to second place in the NL West, but we’ll get to why they’ve dropped. Let’s focus on the D-Backs. This team will pitch. The organization installed a humidor in their bandbox, which should help an already-solid rotation. Robbie Ray’s breakout 2017 was phenomenal to watch, as he became an elite strikeout guy. That relieves some pressure off Zack Greinke, who has struggled with velocity this year and will be 34 on Opening Day. Taijuan Walker hasn’t become the ace many believed he would, but Zack Godley’s emergence has limited their need for that.
Paul Goldschmidt is flat out one of the best hitters in the game, and outfielder A.J. Pollock is a classic pain in the ass for opponents when he’s healthy. I loved the pickup of Steven Souza this offseason, but he’s going to start the season on the DL unfortunately. The power tapers off toward the bottom of the order, but it’s full of speed. Letting Archie Bradley close is going to be a big plus for this team, and if Brad Boxberger can maintain good location, this will be a strong tandem to end games. OVER.
San Francisco Giants (O/U 84)
The Giants suffered two brutal losses at the end of Spring Training, losing Jeff Samardzija for 3-4 weeks with a strained pec, and then ace Madison Bumgarner to a broken finger for 6-8 weeks. These are devastating losses that have decimated what appeared to be a strong rotation. These injuries will be the difference between them and Arizona.
I liked the additions of veterans Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria to the lineup; it doesn’t set tem up great in the future, but paired with MadBum it deepened a lineup that went through some awful stretches a year ago. I’m bullish on Mark Melancon returning to form, and there are some good arms in that ‘pen. This is a good team, but not quite good enough to survive their early injury woes. UNDER.
Colorado Rockies (O/U 81.5)
It doesn’t matter what devices they use in Colorado, people hit. This squad is built for that purpose. They will ride superstars Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon as far as that pair will take them, but for this team to reach the postseason they will need Carlos Gonzalez and Trevor Story to rediscover their 30+ home run pop. SP Jon Gray will be a very nice pitcher if he finally stays healthy, but beyond him this looks every bit like a typical below-average Coors Field rotation.
The big offseason addition was closer Wade Davis, and while his track record is top-notch, I’m not convinced he’s still a dominant late-inning guy. We’ll see, but if he’s not, this team is definitely doomed to miss the playoffs. UNDER.
San Diego Padres (O/U 71.5)
The Padres are going to suck, but I give them big kudos for trying to compete. Adding Eric Hosmer is going to help this club be respectable, as Hosmer and Wil Myers form a middle-of-the-order that can do damage in myriad ways. The issue is that the rest of the club is subpar, as is the rotation. The only other bright spot on the club is closer Brad Hand, whom they failed to deal at the trade deadline last season to supplement the likes of Hosmer and Myers. UNDER.
Playoff Teams
1. Washington Nationals
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Chicago Cubs
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (Wildcard 1)
5. Milwaukee Brewers (Wildcard 2)
NL Pennant
Washington Nationals
Good Bets for Individual Awards
NL MVP
1. Anthony Rizzo (+1,200)
2. Trea Turner (+8,000)
NL Cy Young
1. Noah Syndergaard (+500)
2. Stephen Strasburg (+1,500)