MLB 2018 Predictions & Betting Preview: American League
This is a comprehensive preview of the American League for the MLB 2018 season geared toward general observers and casual bettors. Below, you’ll find predictions, over/under recommendations, and some interesting odds for individual player awards.
**Over/Unders are courtesy of MyBookie.
Individual Player Odds are courtesy of Odds Shark.
American League East
New York Yankees (O/U 94.5)
The Yankees were a somewhat surprising force of nature last season, but their ascendant season, plus the addition of the 2017 MLB home run king Giancarlo Stanton have placed a big target right on their pinstriped backs. Luckily for them, this roster has it all.
The Yankees have arguably the best lineup in baseball and inarguably the most powerful. Aaron Judge and Stanton alone combined for more than 100 homers in 2017, and six of their top eight hitters have posted previous 20-home run seasons. Their bullpen is the best in the sport, even if star reliever Dellin Betances doesn’t figure out his control issues, and the starting rotation can compete with any in MLB. Luis Severino looks like a Cy Young contender, and Sonny Gray and Masahiro Tanaka give this team reliable arms behind the ace. The only question mark in this rotation is veteran CC Sabathia, who appears to have reinvented himself and remains a quality arm to round out a staff. OVER.
Boston Red Sox (O/U 91.5)
The Red Sox won this division last season, and, like the Yankees, only got better in the offseason. While the Stanton trade dropped jaws, the Red Sox added an impact bat of their own in outfielder J.D. Martinez, who smacked 45 home runs in only 113 games. That home run rate may be unsustainable, but he could help Boston as much – if not more – than Stanton helps the Yankees, who weren’t lacking for thunder. Martinez joins a lineup that is less dependent on the long ball, but is just as exhausting for opposing pitchers. Mookie Betts sets the pace, but young players Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers will determine where the ceiling actually is.
On the mound, Chris Sale is possibly the best non-Clayton Kershaw pitcher in the sport, but he will be asked to carry a staff with a lot of question marks. The bullpen, however, has fewer question marks thanks to the dominance of Craig Kimbrel and the plethora of flamethrowers behind him. The lack of quality rotation depth puts Boston a half notch below the Yankees here, but they still have an excellent chance to repeat as division champs. OVER.
Baltimore Orioles (O/U 73)
The oddsmakers are expecting a last-place finish from the O’s, but I think there’s some potential for them to be mildly surprising. The rest of the division seems to be sitting out the AL East arms race, but the Orioles’ rotation has a glimmer of upside that could help them hover near .500 in combination with their powerful lineup. Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman are hyped pitchers who haven’t yet lived up to their outsized expectations, but they are 25 and 27 years old, respectively, and can’t be given up on just yet. If those two pitchers can deliver, the Orioles’ lineup and sneaky good bullpen can help them compete for a while. A lot will depend on whether or not they trade SS/3B Manny Machado. If the O’s deal their best player, they’ll sink like a stone but for now I’d pick them to exceed expectations. OVER.
Toronto Blue Jays (O/U 81)
Toronto had a nice run as one of MLB’s powerhouse offensive clubs, but this year the team seems creaky. 3B Josh Donaldson remains an elite player, but the top hitters these days are uninspiring veteran power bats who’ve seen their best days already like Curtias Granderson and Kendry Morales. In the rotation, it’s more of the same. Marco Estrada and J.A. Happ are well into their 30s, and the de facto ace, Marcus Stroman, is entering the season with a shoulder injury. Closer Roberto Osuna will be a bright spot and a dominant back-end pitcher, but the rest of his ‘pen mates are suspect. Toronto doesn’t have the arms to keep up, and their lineup is going to show its age. UNDER.
Tampa Bay Rays (O/U 75)
The Rays were a mild surprise last year, finishing near .500, so they responded by trading the face of the franchise (Evan Longoria), a 2017 All-Star (Corey Dickerson), and letting power bats Lucas Duda and Logan Morrison walk. Now, they will trot out a light-hitting lineup heavily dependent on speed and the resurgence of Carlos Gomez as a middle-of-the-order bat. Do not count on that.
The saving grace in Tampa Bay could be a youthful rotation headed up by Chris Archer, but this is a cynically-run organization and it’s more likely that Archer is dealt near the deadline for a bunch of prospects who will excite the fan base until it’s their time to be let go to team that will pay them. UNDER.
AL Central
Cleveland Indians (O/U 94.5)
Cleveland doesn’t have the fanfare of the Yankees or Astros, but they might be the most formidable and balanced team in baseball. Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco form potentially the best 1-2 punch in the game atop their rotation, and the third through fifth spots are manned by capable arms with big upside. Their bullpen is top notch; Andrew Miller is arguably the best relief pitcher in baseball, and Cody Allen rates as an elite closer.
Offensively, they are deep and versatile. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis all hit for power and steal bases, as does OF Michael Brantley when he’s healthy. They have thunder in the form of Edwin Encarnacion, and they added a quality bat in Yonder Alonso while also improving their defense at first base. This team is the whole package and should dominate the AL Central once again. OVER.
Minnesota Twins (O/U 83)
The Twins are interesting. Brian Dozier is a beast at the top of the lineup, and is one of the most underrated players in all of baseball. He has big pop in his bat, steals bases at a highly efficient clip, gets on base and plays good defense. He’s a star. The rest of the lineup packs big power as well, and I particularly liked the addition of low-cost bopper Logan Morrison. The player who will determine the team’s ceiling is CF Byron Buxton, though, whom I have pegged as a breakout player. His speed is ridiculous and he’s flashed huge power. The strikeout rate is alarming though, and MUST come down. If it does, and he can show improvement in his OBP, the top of the order with Dozier can be devastating.
Minnesota remade the rotation this offseason too, adding Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn. Neither is a tremendous pitcher, but both are reliable vets who can eat quality innings. They’ll make this team better. The bullpen will cost them games. Fernando Rodney is not a good closer, and Addison Reed is a roll of the dice. This team will probably have to keep tinkering/adding to this bullpen to be a serious contender. OVER.
Kansas City Royals (O/U 70.5)
I have the Royals pegged for third place, but that doesn’t mean I think they have a good team. Losing Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer this offseason hurts badly, and I’m not convinced they adequately replaced either player. Re-signing Mike Moustakas was an important move, as he is the only hitter in this lineup who can make a pitcher pitch carefully. Offense will be a struggle in KC, since their only other top hitter, C Sal Perez, refuses to take walks.
The rotation is mediocre, and also not particularly young; three of the projected five starters are 30 or older, and only Danny Duffy seems to have a ton of potential to outperform expectations. The bullpen has some name relievers, but none who have been that great recently. Kansas City is probably better than a 70-win team, but not a whole lot better. OVER.
Detroit Tigers (O/U 67.5)
It’s impossible for Miguel Cabrera, one of the greatest hitters of this generation, to be as middling in 2018 as he was last year. His injured back has probably robbed him of a future as a first-round fantasy talent, but assuming he manages the issues better he’ll be a productive middle-of-the-order slugger again. Beyond Miggy, this roster is hideous. Nick Castellanos is the only other bat worth getting excited about right now, and the rotation is headed up by Jordan Zimmermann, who hasn’t struck out six batters per nine since joining the team. The bullpen situation isn’t much better, as I’d bet good money Shane Greene doesn’t finish 2018 as their closer. They won 64 games last year, so even though this number seems comically low, it’s hard to envision this team improving by three games. UNDER.
Chicago White Sox (O/U 70.5)
It’s hard to picture a team finishing below Detroit, but Chicago’s staff is dreadful enough for the task. This rotation is led by James Shields, who is now 36 years old and has posted an ERA well above 5.00 for two straight seasons. Yoan Moncada is the player whom everyone will be watching this year, and he will have more pressure on him now that 1B Jose Abreu is dealing with an injured hamstring. Every aspect of the team is weak, including closer, where Joakim Soria is being given another chance to get saves. He’s a shaky option at best. UNDER.
AL West
Houston Astros (O/U 97.5)
Top to bottom, there isn’t a better lineup in baseball in my humble opinion. George Springer is a brutal power/speed combo up top, Jose Altuve might be the best pure hitter in the sport, and the rest of the order possesses home run power. Carlos Correa has the potential to take the crown as MLB’s best all-around shortstop, despite the position being loaded at the top.
What’s even crazier, though, is that Houston’s rotation might be even better than the lineup. Adding Gerrit Cole was a major event, even if baseball observers aren’t quite realizing the magnitude. Cole is better than he showed in 2017, posting FIPs under 3.34 in every year of his career prior to his disappointing campaign. They currently list Charlie Morton as their fifth starter, and he has the potential to break out as a star pitcher. This staff is loaded, and that includes the bullpen, led by the underrated Ken Giles and multiple other relievers capable of working several innings. OVER.
Los Angeles Angels (O/U 84.5)
The Angels won’t have problems scoring runs. Mike Trout is hands down the best player in baseball, and he has firepower backing him up in Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler. The Angels have also wisely invested in defense, adding Zack Cozart as an overqualified (defensively) third baseman to vacuum up balls in play with dominant defensive SS Andrelton Simmons. This is an important development, and an interesting attempt to keep up pace with Houston in an unconventional fashion.
The rotation, however, is deficient. Garrett Richards is once again entering the season as the staff ace, even though he’s thrown 61.4 innings in the last two seasons combined. The Angels made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason when they plunked down big money for two-way star Shohei Otani, and they’re clearly hoping he can become the ace of the staff. But counting on Otani to immediately dominate is risky business, and the rotation on the whole limits the team’s upside. The bullpen is unsettled, with Cam Bedrosian clinging tenuously to the closer role. This is a team with several good relief pitchers, but zero great ones. OVER.
Seattle Mariners (O/U 81.5)
The Mariners are still going for it, which is admirable. They dramatically improved their offense by adding speed demon Dee Gordon, whom they’ll definitely be hoping will pair with Jean Segura to create some havoc at the top of the order. Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano are getting older, and Cano seems to be declining slightly, but both remain high-end run producers. The Mariners have a deep lineup and should score a lot of runs.
Their issues are on the mound, with James Paxton being the only starter with major upside. Felix Hernandez is well past his prime, and the rest of the starters are flotsam. Their bullpen isn’t much better, with Edwin Diaz looking like a reliever with major talent but no track record of consistency. Paxton’s health will be the key to any dreams of a wildcard run, but unfortunately he has not proven any kind of durability. UNDER.
Oakland Athletics (O/U 75.5)
Oakland is going for something here. The run producers in this lineup, particularly Khris Davis and Matt Olson, are tremendously powerful hitters who are unconcerned with their batting average. There are similar boom or bust hitters in this lineup who approach at-bats similarly, but without the potential for 40 homers. Adding C Jonathan Lucroy is an intelligent risk; Lucroy sucked hard last season, but he has rebounded from down years before. Oakland quietly has the potential to go on some offensive tears, but also deal with painful power outages.
Oakland’s pitching is young; normally, that’s a promising thing, but these pitchers in particular don’t have ace written all over them. This group would have to be Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder for Oakland to contend, and unfortunately they aren’t. UNDER.
Texas Rangers (O/U 76.5)
The Rangers are not in a good place. 3B Adrian Beltre is still their best hitter, which shouldn’t be the case as he’s 38 years old. Elvis Andrus’ career year was nice to see last season, but if he doesn’t keep up his increased power there aren’t too many well-rounded hitters here. There’s a lot of high upside – Rougned Odor and Nomar Mazzara come to mind – but no sure bets. And the rotation is a hot mess. They’ll be depending on Cole Hamels, a veteran whose walk rate has been rising, and whose high FIP numbers have finally come to roost. The bullpen has some intriguing arms in it, but with a rotation as full of holes as this one is, there aren’t likely to be many leads to protect. UNDER.
Playoff Teams
1. Houston Astros
2. Cleveland Indians
3. New York Yankees
4. Boston Red Sox (Wildcard 1)
5. Minnesota Twins (Wildcard 2)
AL Pennant
Cleveland Indians
Good Bets for Individual Awards
AL MVP
1. Francisco Lindor (+1,200)
2. Mookie Betts (+2,500)
AL Cy Young
1. Carlos Carrasco (+700)
2. Lance McCullers (+10,000)