NFL Week 9 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 11-13
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game looks like a tasty shootout doesn’t it? But the Saints’ defense is sneaky good in 2017, ranking Top 5 against the pass. They are a pitiful 29th vs. the run, but that may not matter much if Drew Brees and Mark Ingram jump out on the Bucs’ 30th-ranked D early and force them to become pass-happy. The dirty little secret in Tampa Bay is that QB Jameis Winston isn’t very good. If he has to be the one to drag the Bucs to victory, then the Saints could do a number on them.
As for Brees, this will be a get-right game for the veteran. He has thrown for just one score in his last two games, but in this matchup he gets to feast on the NFL’s second-worst pass defense per FootballOutsiders.com.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+1) over Atlanta Falcons
The Panthers did what I expected last week, granting me my only win of Week 8. I’ll roll with them again, as they’re still being disrespected. I’m not going to sweat the trade of Kelvin Benjamin too much; Devin Funchess is like a better version of him at this point, and they’ll just get even more creative with RB/WR Swiss Army knife Christian McCaffery. Atlanta’s defense is atrocious, ranking 25th vs. the pass and 27th vs. the run, so Carolina will move the ball.
Defensively, Carolina has been strong all year, whereas Atlanta has lost their 2016 magic. Matt Ryan has failed to throw more than two touchdowns in any game this year, and Devonta Freeman hasn’t found the end zone in three games. They need to get back on track offensively, but on the road against a defense that ranks seventh vs. the pass and run is a tough spot to accomplish that goal. Sign me up for the Panthers winning outright.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1) over DALLAS COWBOYS
People looooove to bet the Cowboys, especially when they have a high-scoring offense. The problem is that Dallas’ defense is terrible this season, particularly vs. the run (30th) and the Chiefs will be running breakout RB Kareem Hunt right down their throat. Hunt has come back to Earth after his otherworldly start to the season, but he’s also been slowed by two top defenses in the Steelers and Broncos. He put up 87 rushing yards (117 total yards) vs. the Raiders, and Dallas is even worse than Oakland on the ground.
Kansas City’s defense is quietly not much better than Dallas’, an unfortunate consequence of S Eric Berry’s Week 1 injury. This could become a shootout, in which the Chiefs have more incendiary firepower (Hunt, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce). This is a great opportunity to take advantage of a silly public.