NFL Week 10 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 13-14
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+1.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Washington enters Week 10 with a lot on the line, and realistic dreams of playoff contention. The Eagles are in command of the NFC East, but the Cowboys are now going to be without star RB Ezekiel Elliott for six weeks, and the Giants are one of the NFL’s biggest train wrecks. They have much to play for, and they’re coming off an inspiring road win at Seattle, so the momentum and “reason to play hard” storylines are in place. But I like this pick for a more basic reason; they are a reasonable home underdog.
The Redskins have a pretty solid offense which is now much more explosive than it had been with WR Josh Doctson emerging as a starter. The Vikings have a good defense, but they’re not particularly strong against the pass. That works for the ‘Skins, who have one of the league’s most pathetic running games. Meanwhile, the Vikings’ offense is due for a crash. They rank 17th as a rushing offense and eighth in passing; that’s due to tumble with Case Keenum’s regression just around the corner. I’ve got a thing for home underdogs, and there are a few factors that make this an interesting gut call.
BUFFALO BILLS (+3) over New Orleans Saints
Speaking of home underdogs, I really do think that Buffalo, coming off a humiliation at the hands of the Jets, vs. one of the hottest teams in the NFL, is a good pick. To start, teams coming off horrific losses tend to bounce back and at least cover the spread. Next, consider that the Bills (5-3), are 4-1 in their building. That’s nothing to sneeze at, especially with the Saints’ long history of being a much better home team.
Finally, for all the improvements the Saints have made defensively, they remain downright porous against the run. Buffalo is far from a pass-happy squad, and they’re at their best when LeSean McCoy is running wild. That’ll be the case this week, and I think there’s a real chance Buffalo wins outright in this semi-obvious trap game for New Orleans.
New England Patriots (-7.5) over DENVER BRONCOS
Last week I allowed myself to pick a big favorite that I liked, and the Saints treated me well. This week, I’m rolling with the Patriots – coming off a bye week – to absolutely smash Brock Osweiler and the Broncos. Osweiler is, simply put, an unusable QB in fantasy or real life. Bill Belichick doesn’t need an extra week to prepare for him, but the extra time might be cause for two scheme turnovers.
If you’re counting on the Denver defense to keep it close, don’t. They still have a good defense and possibly the NFL’s top defensive player – Von Miller – but it won’t be enough to stop a rested, motivated Brady. The 15th-ranked pass defense in football isn’t going to save you against the Pats.