NBA 2017-18 Betting Preview: Over/Under Picks For The East & Playoff Predictions
The NBA season is around the corner. Rather than break down each team and bore you to tears, I’ll instead give you the TL;DR and clue you in on whether to bet the over or the under for their season win total. At the bottom, stay tuned for my favorite recommendations.
All over/under totals are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
ATLANTIC
Boston Celtics (O/U: 54.5)
Starting Lineup: Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Morris, Al Horford
The Celtics are arguably the deepest team in the Eastern Conference, and while some might not think Kyrie Irving is a major upgrade over Isaiah Thomas, the key addition was Hayward. This team went from having zero go-to scorers over six feet tall to two, while strengthening the bench. Keep in mind this is a team that won 53 games last year and snagged the top seed. There will be some adjusting to do with so many new players, but in a soft Eastern Conference they should still go OVER.
Toronto Raptors (O/U: 48.5)
Starting Lineup: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, C.J. Miles, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas
The Raptors paid Lowry this offseason and are running back a team that is an automatic 48-50 win team when healthy. Ibaka is a super underrated player, and these guys won’t have any issue scoring points, especially with the addition of C.J. Miles to bring more shooting to the table. Their depth has taken a hit with Patrick Patterson and P.J. Tucker gone, but in the East they are fine. OVER.
Philadelphia 76ers (O/U: 39)
Starting Lineup: Markelle Fultz, J.J. Redick, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
The starting five looks beautiful on paper, but it’s a very young group and a brittle one. Embiid is the key to the whole team, and he’s played 31 games in three years. Fultz is a rookie, and Simmons missed all of last season. The talent is mind-blowing, but how can you bet on them all gelling to win 12 more games than they did a year ago? It’s possible, but extremely unlikely. UNDER.
New York Knicks (O/U: 28.5)
Starting Lineup: Frank Ntilikina, Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee, Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter
The front office has managed this team into a real dumpster fire. Outside of Porzingis, there’s no firepower here. Tim Hardaway is a mid-tier scorer at best, and while Porzingis is an elite player, he’s got no help. We don’t know much about Ntilikina, but he was picked mostly because he fit the Triangle offense and then the team dumped Phil Jackson. As much as I love the Latvian Gangbanger, I have to go UNDER.
Brooklyn Nets (O/U: 27)
Starting Lineup: D’Angelo Russell, Allen Crabbe, Demarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Timofey Mozgov
There’s chatter that the Nets are a highly competitive bunch that will surprise a lot of people with their win total. They certainly competed last year, but they won 20 games and lost Brook Lopez, their best player. Yes, they added Russell and Crabbe. It’s not going to make a difference. They have high motors and a good coach, but ultimately the talent on this team simply is not good enough to win significant games. UNDER.
CENTRAL
Cleveland Cavaliers (O/U: 54)
Starting Lineup: Derrick Rose, Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Jae Crowder, Kevin Love
The big caveat is obviously when Isaiah Thomas returns from injury Derrick Rose gets booted to the bench. This lineup is a little weird, but it’s interesting. This lineup will likely score a lot, even if the shooters surrounding LeBron aren’t ideal. Tyronn Lue would probably be better off simply running LeBron at the point and including J.R. Smith in the starting five, but that’s beside the point. Cleveland is deep. In addition to these five, they’ll have Tristan Thompson, Smith, Kyle Korver, Iman Shumpert and Channing Frye in the chamber. This team is deep, and although they’ll miss Irving’s dominant scoring, LeBron can make up for it. OVER.
Milwaukee Bucks (O/U: 47.5)
Starting Lineup: Malcolm Brogdon, Tony Snell, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokuonmpo, Thon Maker
The Greek Freak Giannis Antetokuonmpo is a physical freak and a joy to watch, but his outside shooting will, frankly, keep this team from reaching its ceiling. He only shot 27 percent from 3-point range last season and set a career-high in attempts at a meager 2.3. His teammates in the starting five are not good enough shooters to have their best player be a non-factor from the outside. This number is banking on growth from Milwaukee’s young players, but I don’t see Giannis turning into a shooter, nor can we be sure Jabari Parker stays healthy when he comes back from knee surgery. UNDER.
Indiana Pacers (O/U: 31.5)
Starting Lineup: Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner
This team doesn’t look bad, it’s just wholly uninspiring. All five starters are solid NBA players, but not a single one of them is a star right now. Turner has the ability to become one, but I’m not convinced. Turner and Oladipo would be fine complementary players on a playoff team, but here they are the go-to guys. That’s good enough to get to 32 wins in all likelihood, but not enough to make the postseason. OVER.
Detroit Pistons (O/U: 38.5)
Starting Lineup: Ish Smith, Avery Bradley, Tobias Harris, Jon Leuer, Andre Drummond
This starting lineup is terrible, and it doesn’t have to. They could easily start Reggie Jackson at PG and Stanley Johnson as a small-ball PF; that wouldn’t be a good team, but it would certainly improve upon this. Detroit is a team that is built around a big man (Drummond) who can dunk on anyone, rebound like a beast, and really not do much else. Include play in crunch time because of his ghastly free throw shooting. It’s inexplicable to me that their number is 7.5 games higher than Indiana’s. UNDER.
Chicago Bulls (O/U: 22)
Starting Lineup: Kris Dunn, Justin Holiday, Paul Zipser, Nikola Mirotic, Robin Lopez
This team looks slightly better when Zach LaVine returns, but Chicago’s intended to be one of the worst teams in the NBA. This lineup has no redeeming qualities, and LaVine would only make it more watchable, not significantly better. The only reason to watch this team is to see if rookie Lauri Markkanen is Andrea Bargnani adjace, or an actual NBA player. With all that said, 22 is a seriously horrific win total…but I think the Bulls are terrible enough to go UNDER.
SOUTHEAST
Miami Heat (O/U: 43.5)
Starting Lineup: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Rodney McGruder, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
Yeah I think Miami is going to win their division, what’s it to you? They have one of the best coaches in the game in Erik Spoelstra pulling the strings, and a squad full of underrated guys that can put the ball in the hoop. Waiters unlocked a cheat code last season and became a near-40 percent shooter from beyond the arc. Dragic and Johnson are better scorers than you think, and Justise Winslow has no ceiling really. Everyone and their mother is going to pick the Wizards, but what Miami lacks in star power they make up for with depth and coaching. OVER.
Washington Wizards (O/U: 49)
Starting Lineup: John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Jason Smith, Marcin Gortat
You see Wall and Beal and think 50-win team, but the Wizards depth is seriously lacking. If Beal gets hurt, I question if Porter has the scoring chops to be an effective No. 2 option for an extended period of time. This frontcourt is questionable as well; last season Smith logged just 14.4 minutes a night, and although he shot 47 percent from 3-point range, it’s unclear if he can do that with starter minutes. Markieff Morris’ return will help, but this team is going to struggle some. UNDER.
Charlotte Hornets (O/U: 42.5)
Starting Lineup: Kemba Walker, Jeremy Lamb, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Dwight Howard
There’s potential here if Howard can rekindle his form when he was with the Orlando Magic, and not be an infectious presence. When Howard is surrounded by shooting, he thrives. So if the Hornets can get Lamb out of there and replace him with rookie Malik Monk, they’ll be able to bomb teams from the outside. Kidd-Gilchrist is a problem for this squad; he’s a very nice defender, but he’s one of the worst offensive players in the league. Having him share the floor with Dwight wrecks a lot of the spacing the others can provide, so Williams may have to slide over to the 3 with Frank Kaminsky getting more minutes. UNDER.
Orlando Magic (O/U: 33.5)
Starting Lineup: Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic
Talent? Yes. Shooting…oh my God no. Payton, Gordon and Vucevic are all complete non-shooters. Fournier can light it up, but he’ll have a defender glued to him at all times if there’s no one that defenses have to help off of. The Magic are hoping free agent addition Jonathon Simmons and rookie Jonathan Isaac will be able to boost the offense, but Simmons shot 29 percent from deep last year and Isaac is raw. This team has interesting individual players, but they don’t work at all as a collective. UNDER.
Atlanta Hawks (O/U: 23.5)
Starting Lineup: Dennis Schroder, Marco Bellinelli, Kent Bazemore, Ersan Ilyasova, Dwayne Dedmon
One of the worst starting fives I’ve ever seen. Dennis Schroder, maybe a Top 20 point guard in the league (probably not though, in my estimation) is pretty clearly this team’s best player. I think Atlanta is hands down the worst team in the NBA and a lock UNDER.
Postseason Seeds
1. Celtics
2. Cavaliers
3. Heat
4. Raptors
5. Wizards
6. Bucks
7. Hornets
8. 76ers
One Team That Might Make It
Pacers.
NBA Finals Representative
Celtics.
The Best Over/Under Picks
1. Celtics over 54.5
2. Heat over 43.5
3. Nets under 27.5.