On the Move: Breaking Down Romeo Doubs to the Patriots

We’ve discussed some big names moving teams this offseason at the WR position, and in many cases it’s seemed like big names who fit very, very well in their new homes. We saw Romeo Doubs join the New England Patriots this offseason as well, and it’ll be interesting to see if the new environment and a potentially increased role can take Doubs from fantasy afterthought to contributor.

We all want to roster players who are physical freaks who marry those gifts with skill and precision. Those are your upper level superstars, but a common phrase you’ll hear among folks like us is “volume is king.” It’s oversimplifying our game, but there’s truth to it. Sometimes, superior players don’t hit their fantasy ceilings because they’re not afforded touches or targets commensurate with their ability. On the flip side, more ordinary players can be elevated because they’re depended on in their offense to be the hub. In the case of Doubs, we have a player who has steadily gotten better through his first four NFL seasons, but could never be confused for a real superstar. Doubs put up a career-best in yardage last season, but it was just 724 yards. He finished with 55 receptions, 724 yards and six touchdowns. He was playable for sure, but far from special, and he did not explode in the absence of fellow WR Jayden Reed, nor did he see a major production uptick in the wake of losing TE Tucker Kraft. He was what he was, and we can’t be certain if it’s because he’s got a ceiling, or if it was his role in the Packers’ offense.

Doubs led the Packers in targets, which sounds awesome, but it was only 85 targets. That’s two fewer than TE Hunter Henry, who was second in targets for the Patriots. Doubs was on a team who makes great effort to spread the ball around, and he was used almost exclusively on the outside and on the line as an X receiver tasked with the hard stuff. Doubs posted a solid 69.2% success rate vs. man, good for the 54th percentile per Reception Perception. He was decidedly less effective vs. zone, at 75% which was a weak 24th percentile finish. That looks bad, but it isn’t too crazy for X-exclusive players. The outside-dominant receivers who crush zone too tend to be the elite guys you’re drafting in Rounds 1 and 2. Doubs has never been a physical specimen, and his athletic limitations do show up on nine routes, corners and outs. Those are the big-time downfield routes that your D.K. Metcalfs thrive on that make them dominant X receivers. Doubs is not tooled up like that, but he has become effective on in-breaking stuff like digs and posts, as well as slants which he won at an 80.6% clip. Green Bay knew what he was best at, because they spammed the digs as they made up 26.1% of his routes run. With his usage, and with his athletic traits and skill set, it does seem like he’s close to his max as an X receiver in terms of production. But the thing is, we haven’t seen him really experimented with in a more varied role. He’s going to a Patriots offense where the role for him is not quite as set in stone, and with an ascendant QB in Drake Maye.

The Patriots made him their big offseason addition on offense to this point, “replacing” Stefon Diggs who let the team in targets (102), receptions (85), yards (1,013) and catch rate (83.3%). I placed replacing in quotes, because these are different players, so it’s not apples to apples. Diggs can play any WR position, but as he’s aged and dealt with injuries, he’s become much more of a slot/flanker. How the Pats plan on using Doubs remains to be seen; they have in-house options both in the slot (Demario Douglas, second-year WR Kyle Williams), as well as on the outside (Mack Hollins, Kayshon Boutte). Some might scoff at the outside options, but those players both had important functions for a team that went to the Super Bowl. Hollins does do damage down the field, and is also an elite blocker on the outside. Taking him off the field for Doubs would have some drawbacks. Boutte is inconsistent, but also has burst that Doubs lacks, and allowed him to sting teams over the top in ways Doubs doesn’t/can’t. Perhaps Doubs moves around the formation, which in theory should help, but we don’t yet know if he’s capable.

All in all, it’s nice that he will get a QB upgrade from Jordan Love to Drake Maye, and it’s likely he sees a career-high target share where he’s more featured. However, while his gains in separation are laudable, there does not seem to be a mega leap coming for Doubs because he’s simply not the caliber of athlete that the top X receivers are (think George Pickens, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins). This means that Doubs can be an effective player, and may well have his best NFL season, but I would view him as a WR3 at best, and his ADP could be higher than that if the Patriots don’t make any more significant additions to the WR room. At the time of the Packers’ preview for 2025, Doubs was an afterthought at No. 221 overall, and WR73. He will be higher than that this season, but if he’s beyond WR40 or so, then Doubs can provide high-quality depth for fantasy managers.