On the Move: Breaking Down Jaylen Waddle on the Broncos

The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers made big moves to address weaknesses in their pass-catching groups this offseason, trading for D.J. Moore and Michael Pittman, respectively. The Denver Broncos, who won 14 games in 2025 despite a shallow receiving corps themselves, saw those bets and raised them after trading first and third round picks, and swapping fourth rounders, with the Miami Dolphins to acquire Jaylen Waddle.

Much like George Pickens was an ideal complement to CeeDee Lamb a year ago, and Michael Pittman looks to fit like a glove alongside D.K. Metcalf, Waddle’s fit with the Broncos is very easy to see. Last season Courtland Sutton was the Denver top option, and he turned in a 1,017-yard season with seven touchdowns. Denver’s offense was very good, but there’s another gear it can hit with an ascendant QB (Bo Nix) and an elite offensive mind (Sean Payton) designing the attack. As good as Sutton is, he’s a traditional outside X receiver and he hasn’t shown in his career that he can be as effective moving all around the formation. Enter Waddle, who maybe hasn’t hit the true WR1 ceiling that many felt he possessed when he was drafted, but who can very much still reach it.

Waddle is entering his age-27 season, so he isn’t old by any means, and in many ways 2025 was his best season. Statistically, that’s not the case. He failed to hit 1,000 yards for the second straight season after crossing that threshold thrice to start his career. But Waddle was also playing in an offense that has been deteriorating, and for a QB who was eroding for the world to see that wound up being an awful fit for Waddle as he was used. Waddle is a breathtaking speedster, and underrated route runner, but he shared pass-catching duties with Tyreek Hill, and the Dolphins designed open looks and touches in space for Hill often, leaving Waddle to do the difficult work of beating tight coverage or getting open down the field. At other times, when Hill wasn’t getting those manufactured looks, they were designing them for RB De’Von Achane, yet another awe-inspiring speedster. Making it a priority to feed Hill and Achane is a no-brainer for the Miami offense, but it meant Waddle suffered in the sense of target share, especially when QB Tua Tagovailoa’s arm and health slowly chipped away at his ability to even get the ball to Waddle.

So while Waddle’s numbers dipped, in 2025 he did his best work for little reward. He scored six touchdowns last season, tying his second-best mark in his career. He posted a 73.5% success rate  vs. man coverage, good for a 77th percentile finish, and he was at 81.3% vs. zone, a 74th percentile result. The Dolphins knew Waddle’s strengths, which were slants, digs and outs, and he won those routes at an 88.8%, 83.9% and 77.1% clip, respectively. These are WR1-type success rates, and per Reception Perception, he caught 83.3% of his contested catch opportunities. Waddle is a true candidate to be a legitimate NFL WR1, and certainly a fantasy WR1 based on this data and he’s walking into a winning environment that’s going to showcase his abilities. Waddle spent the vast majority of his snaps in Miami on the outside, and while he’ll still do plenty of that in Denver, Sutton is locked in as the X. That means Waddle will spend time as the flanker on the line, but he’ll also be off the line more, and in the slot a bunch, getting the ball in open space far more than the 30.6% mark he posted a year ago.

Waddle is bound to soak up a ton of the targets that went to Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims and Pat Bryant last season, and Denver threw the fourth-most passes in the NFL in 2025, so 100+ targets is on the docket for Waddle. With the expectation that more of those targets will be layups designed to get him in space and use his world-class speed, expect increased efficiency. At the time of the Dolphins team preview last season, Waddle was the No. 73 overall pick, and going as the WR32. I had marked him as a value at that ADP, and he’s likely to be around that range in 2025 if not slightly higher in his new home. If he’s around this ADP again, Waddle will be a massive boon to whatever lucky manager snags him because there’s a real chance Waddle leaps into elite territory with the Broncos.