2025 Team Previews: Kansas City Chiefs
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
Xavier Worthy, WR (ADP: 56, WR24): Worthy’s ADP is mind boggling to me, because not only was his production mediocre – 59 receptions, 638 yards, six touchdowns – he has to be gimmicked the ball because he’s so far from a complete package. Many are high on him because they think he can slot right in when Rice is suspended, but we just talked about Rice being a 99th-percentile zone beater. Worthy was at 80.1%,, a good number, but well below Rice’s, and his 66.7% success rate on slants pales in comparison. The Chiefs fed Worthy a similar diet of targets, but he was just not as good, and while they did use his track speed on nine routes very often (16% of routes), he was successful 56.4% of the time. It’s as if Worthy is being cast as a hybrid of Rashee Rice and Tyreek Hill, but he is neither.
To me, Worthy is closer to Mecole Hardman than Rice, and while that sounds harsh I actually advocated for Hardman at times. The speed is insane, and as a red zone/gadget weapon he can be electric. If the Chiefs have a Worthy package of plays and design him even eight touches a game, he can be a FLEX option. But this ADP treats him like a borderline WR2, and I can’t get behind it.
Rashee Rice, WR (ADP: 57, WR25): Rice is probably the most maddening player to figure out of the entire offseason, so it makes sense he kicks off our final team preview. Rice was absolutely dominant to kick off 2023, before an unfortunate injury ended what was shaping up to be a hell of a breakout. He had 24 catches for 288 yards and two scores in essentially three games, as he was injured very early in Week 4. This was coming off a rookie campaign in which he caught 79 balls for 938 yards and seven touchdowns.
But Rice’s injury was severe, always a concern for the following season. He also had major legal issues in the offseason that now threaten to derail him again during the year. News has hit that his disciplinary hearing will happen September 30, which is right in the middle of the year. He can be suspended anywhere between two and eight games, so how the hell are we supposed to know how to value him?
On the field, he wasn’t well rounded, but he was absolutely incredible in specific ways. His 89.8% success rate vs. zone was a 99th percentile mark. 36.7% of his routes were slants, and he won at a 78.8% rate. Rice’s entire diet was layup routes, and he smashed them damn near every time. Over 63% of Rice’s routes were slants, flats, screens and “other,” and he was at 100% on the flats and screens and 71.4% on the “other” routes. Now, this kind of usage does not scream real life WR1 for the Chiefs, but for fantasy purposes he absolutely can be a WR1 with that quarterback if the volume is high enough. The problem is that we know he’s missing time, and while you’ll have fun to start the season, you could really miss two thirds of the season which hampers you because you’re losing a great player, and it hamstrings your ability to make moves early. Also, without an NA spot, you’ll have to carry a dead roster spot. I badly wanted to be in on Rashee Rice this year, but with this suspension looming, I cannot justify spending meaningful draft capital on him when he could miss half of the NFL season.
**Patrick Mahomes, QB (ADP: 58, QB6): Mahomes’ ADP is finally dropping to a point that he could be considered a value. 2023 and 2024 were disastrous seasons for him from a strictly fantasy perspective, as defenses tried their hardest to take the deep ball away from the Chiefs. He’s responded by leaning on the run game, minimizing mistakes and winning games with stats that are far beneath his station. Last season was a nadir, with Mahomes falling below 3,000 yards and only putting up 26 touchdowns. His last two seasons worth of TD passes barely eclipse his mark in 2022 alone.
The biggest reason for this decline is pretty simple, his receiving corps has been diminished since losing Tyreek Hill, and he’s making lemonade out of lemons. I was prepared to make Mahomes a target in all of my drafts because I thought this year’s group was sneakily much better. Rashee Rice is a stud in his role, Travis Kelce remains reliable, and Marquise Brown is an underrated asset. Mix in Xavier Worthy’s blazing speed and this is a group he can work with. The looming threat of Rice’s suspension throws cold water on the most glorious of heights, but this is still a group that has far more explosive capability than we’ve seen recently.
It’s hard to trust players after they’ve burned you, but this is still the best actual QB in football. This is still a player who has thrown for 5,000+ yards twice, who has a 50-TD season on his resume, and who has thrown for 37+ touchdowns four times. His upside is far and away the top scorer in fantasy, so with that as a ceiling, and improved pass catchers around him, this feels like a value.
**Isiah Pacheco, RB (ADP: 59, RB23): Pacheco burned managers too last year, but his disappointment was injury related. He went down in Week 2, we all thought he was done for the year, but he was actually back in Week 13. Problem was, he was a shell of himself and wound up losing a ton of work. He seems to be back to health for real now, and if so he’s a big value at this ADP. Pacheco is easily the best RB the Chiefs have, and as the workhorse in 2023 he put up nearly 1,200 total yards and nine touchdowns. He’s not considered a big time pass catcher, but he caught 44 passes for 244 yards and two scores in 2023, so I don’t see why he can’t be a contributor in that regard this season.
Getting demolished by Philly’s defense in the Super Bowl was embarrassing, but it’s also put a stink on the Chiefs that I’m wanting to take advantage of. Betting against the best QB in football, maybe the best coach, and a few very talented skill players doesn’t seem wise. Pacheco has low-end RB1 upside if he has a TD spike, and at this ADP it’s very low risk.
Travis Kelce, TE (ADP: 62, TE5): Kelce as the TE6 looks and feels weird. Realizing he’s the same age as Rob Gronkowski, who has retired twice, helps normalize his free-falling draft stock but Kelce actually makes sense at this point considering his ceiling. Even as his production has fallen off, he’s caught 93 and 97 passes the last two seasons, albeit for rapidly declining yardage. The key factor for Kelce has been that the TDs haven’t been there. Part of that could be age and declining athleticism, or it could just be bad luck. If he puts up another season with 90 receptions and 850-900 yards, but scores eight times vs. three, is that not an incredible value? Do you really think he can’t do that?
I’m not saying he will, but if he’s got roughly the same cost as T.J. Hockenson, I’ll be damned if I’m not picking Kelce.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
**Hollywood Brown, WR (ADP: 173, WR61): Brown was mentioned earlier, and I think he’s truly a forgotten man here. He was brought in to potentially help Mahomes out with his deep ball problems. Teams are trying to take away his bomb shots, and succeeding because the talent hasn’t been there to beat the coverage. Xavier Worthy has the speed, but lacks the separation skills. Brown has made a living taking the top off defenses, and he’s become underrated because for years he was miscast as a WR1. Here, he is most certainly not the WR1, and he will never be the focal point of a secondary, which bodes well for him serving his purpose.
Brown’s best season was 2021, when he caught 91 passes for 1,008 yards and six touchdowns. He has battled injury ever since, but even in limited action last year he was winning 57.1% of his nine routes, which he ran 18.4% of the time. He won down the field, and he kept defenses honest with a 90.9% success rate on outs. He is capable of stinging teams in the intermediate areas sitting in zone, as well as over the top, and while he doesn’t do well vs. man coverage, the Chiefs can scheme around that. This ADP treats him like a non-factor, and in my opinion he’s the second-best WR on this team.
Notable Players
Jalen Royals, WR (ADP: 272, WR85): Royals is pretty talented, and his 2023 season at Utah State was prolific. The Chiefs’ depth chart at first glance looks like there’s a pretty clear path to playing time, but rookies rarely digest Andy Reid’s offense quickly. We’ve tried for years to figure out WR value in this offense, only for Mahomes to spread it all around and make almost all of them irrelevant for us. That’s Royals here, at least in Year 1.
Noah Gray, TE (ADP: 283, TE36): Gray would’ve been a breakout pick had Kelce hung up his cleats, but as long as Kelce’s around Gray is not going to matter for fantasy. He’ll have some games where he finds the end zone for sure, but you won’t know when they’re coming.
Juju Smith-Schuster, WR (ADP: N/A): Smith-Schuster is a one-trick pony, but he actually performs that trick fairly well when he wears a Chiefs uniform. He could worm his way into fantasy relevance upon Rice’s suspension, because he can swiftly hop right in that slot role and run a million slants. Will he be a difference maker? Not a chance, but he definitely can be useful. He’s almost like a WR handcuff.
Handcuffs
Kareem Hunt, RB (ADP: 172, RB55): The Chiefs lead back is going to have fantasy value, and while I expect that to be Pacheco, Hunt is the next man up and might be on the field for goal line opportunities anyway. Hunt has slowed down considerably since his first Chiefs run, but he is still a rugged veteran who has managed 15 touchdowns across the last two seasons. His ADP is so cheap that I would recommend handcuffing Pacheco if you wind up drafting him.
Elijah Mitchell, RB (ADP: 268, RB76): Mitchell can never stay on the damn field, but if he got opportunity in this offense it could be very interesting. He’s never played more than 11 games in a year, so even with injuries in front of him it’s hard to ever see a three down role for him. But efficiency is his game, and if he just had a steady role in this offense, I could see real fantasy value.