2025 Team Previews: Detroit Lions
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (ADP: 4, RB3): Gibbs is not a terrible No. 1 overall pick. Sure, Bijan Robinson and Saquon Barkley will have more volume from him, but Gibbs produces at a shockingly similar rate to those guys and actually takes less of a beating because his volume is less. Gibbs finished last season with over 1,900 yards from scrimmage and he led the NFL in touchdowns with 20. He did all this while ending 2024 with a 55.7% snap rate, and seeing fewer than 15 carries in nine of Detroit’s first 14 games. When his backfield mate David Montgomery went down, and Detroit still had to scratch and claw for home field in the postseason, we saw what Gibbs was capable of with a full workload. For the final three games of the year Gibbs saw 18+ carries and averaged 162.4 total yards per game with six touchdowns.
This year, the Lions’ offense might not be such a well-oiled machine. They’ve lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and their Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow. On the other hand, one change might be increased usage for Gibbs, which we know for a fact is a positive. We wouldn’t want him to be overused and get hurt, but Gibbs produced with the big boys last year while being in a legit timeshare. If he starts getting even more work I don’t think it’s crazy at all that he could be the top player in fantasy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR (ADP: 9, WR4): St. Brown has been a fantasy rock for three straight seasons now, with his touchdown totals in the last two seasons making him a real-deal WR1. There is no problem with his ADP here, as we’ve noted the consistent greatness, but the changes in environment this year do give me a little bit of pause. St. Brown was a bit more touchdown dependent at times last season than he had been previously, what with the running game being dominant and other players emerging as relevant.
We noted that the OC is gone and the offensive line could take a hit. The O-line bit is self-explanatory, but a new offensive coordinator may have his own ideas about the passing game, and want to involve Jameson Williams and TE Sam LaPorta a bit more than they were used in 2024. St. Brown’s produced like an elite guy, but his game is not the same. He isn’t making his hay on deep shots, or constantly getting looks at all three levels and dominating everywhere. St. Brown’s value is volume based, and he needs as much work as he can get to arrive at the numbers. That’s not to denigrate his ability; he’s not simply a slant merchant or gadget guy, but he is not the same style of receiver like Justin Jefferson or CeeDee Lamb who can get those stats in a variety of ways. So no, this ADP doesn’t set off alarm bells for me, but I do think there’s actually more downside than meets the eye and I’m slightly uncomfortable with it.
David Montgomery, RB (ADP: 53, RB21): Montgomery is another player who could be unaffected by the offensive changes, or lose a ton of value. Montgomery recorded 185 carries in 2024 and he only played in 14 games. He basically equaled Gibbs’ carry count per game, and averaged 15 opportunities (carries + targets) to Gibbs’ 18. All of this wound up being wonderful for the Lions, as both RBs were incredibly productive and the Lions led the NFL in scoring. But Montgomery’s fantasy production was far more dependent on touches than Gibbs, even though Gibbs scored 20 of them. Montgomery scored 12 times, all on the ground, and he only rushed for 775 yards. It would behoove the Lions, who have most of the same personnel in place, to keep things static and not fix an offense that wasn’t broken. But who knows what the new staff will actually do?
Montgomery stands to suffer if they decide Gibbs needs a bigger snap count. He could also lose touches/production if they decide to be more of a passing offense that reduces his carry count, and puts Gibbs on the field more as the superior receiver. Montgomery was essentially an automatic TD on Detroit’s first drive every week in 2024. If that’s not the case, Montgomery could really underperform this ADP. I am not predicting that, but I would be careful to not build a roster that is too dependent on him.
Sam LaPorta, TE (ADP: 55, TE4): I deep dived on LaPorta during this offseason, because his fall off from Year 1 to Year 2 was steep and brutal. What I discovered was that it was pretty much a usage issue. He was more efficient and he graded out well, but he simply got fewer looks from Jared Goff, and he can’t produce on plays when the ball doesn’t come his way. At the time of the deep dive, I recommended entrusting LaPorta this year, because the talent didn’t go anywhere and he could easily tick back up in targets and be a Top 5 TE. It seems I was listened to, as he’s the TE4 off the board and going in a range that I don’t believe is wise.
I’m a big fan of the player, but even in 2023 when he was TE1, he finished with 86 receptions, 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Those reception and yardage numbers were blown away by Brock Bowers and Trey McBride last season, and the TDs are unpredictable. Eagles WR DeVonta Smith is right in the same range, and he ended last season with 833 yards and eight touchdowns, strikingly similar to LaPorta’s TE1 campaign, and he has two other seasons with well over 1,000 yards. That’s what you pass up on for the “security” of LaPorta, who proved last season that he’s actually an upside play rather than a safe one. No matter how you slice it, it’s a tough sell to take these TEs who give the illusion of safety, but aren’t in the tier of the upper crust. If you’re not going to pay up for Bowers or McBride, you’re better off just waiting.
**Jameson Williams, WR (ADP: 65, WR29): Fantasy is supposed to be fun, and few players are more fun than Williams when it’s right. He took a massive leap last season, going from 354 yards in 2023 to 1,001 last year with seven touchdowns. He did that damage on only 58 receptions, because this dude does his damage deep. Williams is like the second coming of DeSean Jackson, who terrified defenses for years with his ridiculous speed. Williams averaged 17.3 yards per catch, an absurd number that normally makes me laugh off the prospects of said player because it’s not sustainable. Here...it might be. His average depth of target was actually a much more manageable 11.2, meaning he’s actually getting open, catching it and doing work after the catch.
Williams isn’t just running nines and getting it chucked his way. He improved dramatically as a route runner, posting high success rates on digs, outs and curls, while also putting up a respectable 76.7% win rate on slants that made up nearly 20% of his routes. These upgrades in his game are important, because with his physical gifts it would be very foolish to not make him an increasingly central part of the offense. He has room to improve, and if he does, that’s likely to come at the expense of St. Brown, Montgomery or both because of his efficiency. It may seem crazy, but I prefer drafting Williams at ADP than St. Brown.
Jared Goff, QB (ADP: 97, QB11): Goff is a pretty rock solid QB1, because at this point he’s consistently throwing for 4,500+ yards. Whether or not you’re happy with him as your QB1 depends on how many touchdowns he throws. Goff tossed 37 last year, which is awesome, but before that he’d thrown 29 and 30 in 2022 and 2022, respectively. There’s a lot more high-20s totals than high-30s, and if that’s what you get, you’ll have a nice looking end of season line, but a lived experience that leaves you wanting. I see no reason to draft Goff when you can get Dak Prescott a round later, or guys like Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud more than 30 picks later.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
Isaac TeSlaa, WR (ADP: 238, WR74): The Lions’ offense is fairly clear-cut in terms of who will be relevant, but TesLaa stands out as someone of interest. TesLaa is very large and very fast, but had very little college production to justify a third round selection. Taking him in Round 3 does signify that this team must have some sort of plan for him right?
TesLaa was pretty lethal down the field, posting success rates of 78.6% on corners, 73.9% on posts and 66.7% of nines, and he did all this while being almost exclusively a slot receiver. We know that St. Brown is not a slot-only player, but that is where he’s been at his best and most dangerous, and it’s illogical to think the Lions would displace him for a player who has 62 career catches at Arkansas for less than 1,000 yards and five touchdowns. I have no clue how they’ll deploy him, but I am interested.
Notable Players
Tim Patrick, WR (ADP: N/A): I’ve always liked Patrick as a player, and I think he can be useful for Detroit if opportunity arises. Will it? I doubt it, but if he does get pressed into regular duty he can be a fantasy FLEX option.
Kalif Raymond, WR (ADP: N/A): Raymond is such a fast and twitchy player that I wonder why he never caught on as a regular contributor. He’s been in Detroit now for four seasons and has yet to get to 50 receptions, so I don’t expect much, but he sure is explosive.
Handcuffs
Craig Reynolds, RB (ADP: N/A): Reynolds is here for some banger work if Montgomery gets hurt, but we have seen that scenario before and it led to bell cow duty for Gibbs. Perhaps if an injury struck earlier in the season though, Reynolds would have a small, but legit standalone role.