Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: 1st Base Sleepers, Busts & Overview

It is never too early to begin prepping for a fantasy season, especially when it comes to the long, long haul we call baseball. This is the first of many articles I will write to help you prepare for your season. These are intended to spark ideas, and to give a general outline of the position so that you can fill in the blanks and apply your own thinking to build a team perfect for you.

This is the first base preview.

The Top Five

1.    Kris Bryant, Cubs: If Mike Trout weren’t on a path that could lead to G.O.A.T. status, Bryant would be a compelling No. 1 overall pick contender. He’s young (24), is eligible for three positions (1B, 3B, OF), and he’s already one of the premier power hitters in the game. Unlike many hitters with his prodigious power, Bryant can and will hit for average because he has demonstrated a track record at all levels. He’s got a staggering ability to reach base (.385 OBP), and he’s one of the best in the game at producing runs (149 WRC+). He was on the cusp of 40 home runs last year, and topped 120 RBI; in the Cubs’ lineup, possibly the best in MLB, he’s still ascending.

2.    Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks: Goldschmidt is not a typical, thumping 1B, but he’s an amazing fantasy asset nonetheless. Easily a first rounder, Goldschmidt offers high power upside (topped out at 36 homers), and a floor of 20+, along with legit base-stealing. A good year for most first-sackers on the bases includes five steals; last season Goldy swiped 32, and 21 the previous season. He hit better than .300 for three straight seasons, and batted .297 in 2016, and reaches base at a better than .400 clip. First base is a pretty deep position, but if Goldy is available to you at any point he makes sense.

3.    Anthony Rizzo, Cubs: Rizzo is a classic 1B fantasy masher. At 26 years old he’s an excellent keeper, he’s a lock for 30 home runs, and he can keep up with the top bats at any position in terms of batting average. He’s going to hit a few less homers than Bryant, which is why he’s just slightly behind him in the rankings.

4.    Miguel Cabrera, Tigers: Cabrera is one of the safest bets in fantasy history. He offers as much power as anyone at the position, he’s hit .313 or better for eight straight campaigns, and despite being excellent for so long, Miggy is only 33. The younger names are sexier – and I admittedly ranked Rizzo ahead of Cabrera based solely on his age – but Cabrera is A-okay to take first among this list if you please.

5.    Joey Votto, Reds: The knock on Votto used to be limited power, but 29 homers in back-to-back seasons elevate him to above-average in that department. Finally, he’s added dingers to a resume that includes world-class on-base skills and elite batting average. Votto is pretty much Goldschmidt with a lot less steals, and you can do way worse than that!

Some Sleeper Candidates

1.    Tommy Joseph, Phillies: The Phillies are a team that will be largely ignored by the fantasy community, but they’re quietly stocked with some interesting talent. Joseph swatted 21 home runs in just 107 games (347 plate appearances) and posted a passable .257 batting average with a subpar .267 BABIP. Over the course of a full season, in a hitter’s park, Joseph provides some big upside.

2.    Steve Pearce, Blue Jays: Pearce put up pretty impressive numbers overall last season, slashing .288/.374/.492 with 13 home runs in just 85 games. Those numbers don’t tell the whole story; he was dreadful in 25 games with Baltimore after hitting .309 over 60 games with the Rays. But his Orioles slump coincided with an insanely unlucky .233 BABIP. His career has been up and down, but in Toronto he looks likely to be in a platoon with Justin Smoak, which is a blessing and a curse. Playing time will likely keep him from even a chance at being a high-end 1B, but if you use him right, he could be reminiscent of the best years of Adam Lind. Pearce is going to be off almost all radars, so he’s worth a deep-league gamble.

Beware Bust Potential

1.    Albert Pujols, Angels: Pujols has remained a stalwart power hitter, but don’t be deceived. He’s eventually going to fall off the cliff, and in fact, may already be teetering. In 2015 he hit .244, but only posted a .217 BABIP, leading many (read: me) to think a bounce back was in order. In 2016, he saw his HR total fall by nine to 31, and although his BABIP rose to .260, he still managed just a .268 average. His K% rose slightly, his Isolated slugging was the lowest its been since 2013, and he posted the worst WRC+ (111) of his career. He’s not going to score runs in the Angels’ underwhelming lineup, and his 40-HR 2015 is looking like an outlier that ran opposite a new trend.

2.    Eric Hosmer, Royals: Hosmer has a reputation as one of the up-and-coming young stars in this game, but he’s 27 and been a big leaguer for six seasons. When’s it going to happen? Last season he belted a career-high 25 home runs, which is nothing special at 1B. He posted a WRC+ of 101, when league average is 100, and reached base at a wholly average .328 clip. He offers below-average power at first, without the speed to make up for it. Maybe he’ll return value if he goes late, but his name recognition pushes his status. Stay away.

How Many Deep?

Great: 7

Very Good-Good: 5

Fringe Starters: 13