Fantasy Baseball 2017 Preview: Catcher Busts, Sleepers & Overview
It is never too early to begin prepping for a fantasy season, especially when it comes to the long, long haul we call baseball. This is the first of many articles I will write to help you prepare for your season. These are intended to spark ideas, and to give a general outline of the position so that you can fill in the blanks and apply your own thinking to build a team perfect for you.
This is the Catchers preview.
The Top Five
1. Gary Sanchez, Yankees: This could be somewhat controversial, as Buster Posey is the annual, clear best catcher. But let’s make the case. Sanchez, at 23, is unquestionably the top option if your league is a keeper league. He had a limited run – just 53 games, and slightly more than 200 plate appearances – but in that time he managed to swat 20(!!!!) home runs, hit .299 without the assistance of a ridiculous BABIP (.317), and get on base at a .376 clip. His minor league track record suggests he isn’t going to be an elite home run hitter, but his on-base and batting average numbers are likely to remain constant, and 30 home runs is not out of the question. There’s a little bit more risk with him than the next two options because of his age, but there’s no question where the upside lies. And he has a very high floor.
2. Jonathan Lucroy, Rangers: Lucroy proved in 2016 that as long as he’s healthy, he’s an elite bat at the catcher position. He slashed .292/.355/.500, with his slugging percentage rocketing upward after joining the Rangers. He also belted a career-high 24 home runs, which could recede some in 2017, but it’d be surprising if he hits fewer than 15. Lucroy is a high-contact bat in one of MLB’s deepest, best batting orders, and that’s why he gets a slight edge over Posey. If he’s the top Catcher in your personal rankings, you wouldn’t get much argument out of me.
3. Buster Posey, Giants: Posey is the most reliable catcher in baseball. If you broke the position down into tiers, and you should, he is in the first tier. Power has never been Posey’s calling card, but he only notched 14 bombs last year, which is not enough for a hitter being taken as early as Posey typically goes. If a guy isn’t going to hit home runs, then he needs to steal a lot of bases to go that high; Posey does neither, and while his batting average is blessedly consistent, he doesn’t offer a big chance of outperforming his average draft position (ADP).
4. Willson Contreras, Cubs: Contreras, unlike Posey, has an excellent chance to outperform his ADP. He didn’t put up Gary Sanchez numbers, but for a 24-year-old first-year catcher he did very well. Contreras slashed .282/.357/.488 with 12 home runs and 35 RBI. With more playing time he’s looking 20+ home runs potentially, and a lot of runs. The only problem is veteran C Miguel Montero, who will probably play more than your average backup catcher.
5. Evan Gattis, Astros: I should be clear that Gattis takes a bit of a plunge if you’re in a Points format, or any format that penalizes strikeouts. If not, enjoy the uncommon HR output Gattis will provide from the C position, even if he doesn’t get as many at-bats as you’d like. Gattis smacked 32 homers in just 128 games last year; his .319 OBP is subpar for a player with so much power, but this position is probably the worst from top-to-bottom in fantasy baseball. Roll with the punches.
Some Sleeper Candidates
1. Tyler Flowers, Braves: The sleeper prospects at catcher are bleak enough that I’m eyeing a 31-year-old on one of the worst teams in baseball, who is projected to bat eighth. That said, Flowers is interesting if you want to ignore the position completely until the back end of your draft. His .357 OBP was better than Jonathan Lucroy’s, and his WRC+ (click the link to see why this obscure stat is useful) is just six points behind Buster Posey. That doesn’t mean he’s elite, it just means he’s better than you’d expect for where he’ll go.
2. Tom Murphy, Rockies: It’s hard to know how Colorado will divvy up playing time for two young catchers, but Murphy showed that his reputation for power in the minors translated to Coors Field. Murphy banged five home runs in 21 games in the big leagues in 2016, and posted a .659 slugging percentage. Worth a flier extremely late perhaps, and surely in two-catcher leagues.
Beware Bust Potential
1. Brian McCann, Astros: McCann is leaving the lefty-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium for Houston, where his power may not play quite as well. McCann turns 33 this year, so he’s not terribly old, but his batting average hasn’t topped .242 in three years, and his defense slipped last season, which means he could cede more time behind the plate to Gattis and his superior power. Home runs are his calling card, and its easy to see him hit fewer than he must to be useful.
2. Salvador Perez, Royals: Perez is a valuable real-life player, but his rep carries him when it comes to fantasy. Back-to- back 20-home run seasons are good for the position, but his batting average hasn’t been impressive for three seasons, he strikes out a ton, and he’s posted three straight sub-.300 OBP campaigns. Those deficiencies negate the homers.
How Many Deep?
Great: 3
Very Good-Good: 4
Fringe Starters: 4