Veteran Values: Undervalued Old Guys

We discussed some of the deepest possible sleepers yesterday, and I want to continue providing some deep cuts that can serve as valuable roster depth available very late in drafts. Unlike the super deep sleepers, these are players that will be drafted in most leagues, albeit pretty damn late. They might not have the highest of ceilings, but you’ll be happy you have them.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Broncos (ADP: 90, RB34)

Dobbins headlined this list in 2025, and it seems like Jon Snow, we know nothing. His ADP is a smidge higher than it was this time last year, but he’s still outside the Top 30 at his position despite being the lead dog in an offense that is universally expected to put up points. The drum beat is about his injury baggage, the presence of a new highly-touted rookie in camp, etc. etc. The injuries are known and already built into this ADP, and we’ve seen the rookie movie play out. Last year it was R.J. Harvey, and this year it’s Jonah Coleman. When you are drafting Dobbins, you’re accepting that he’ll get hurt at some point and you’re gambling how many games you get.

Last season, you got 10,and they were damn good games. He ended the season with 772 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He carried the ball 15+ times in six of the 10 games, and saw double digit rushing attempts in every game. In those 10 games Dobbins was held below 60 yards only once, and he cracked the 100-yard mark twice. Dobbins has rushed for 5.2 yards per carry in his career, and only dipped below 4.6 in 2023 when he carried the ball eight times before getting hurt for the remainder of the season. He’s never been a prolific receiving back, even if he showed potential in 2024 with the Chargers, but he’s been consistently effective for his entire career when he’s on the field. I can understand not wanting to take such a high injury risk onto your team, but he’s barely going as an RB3. How many RB3s can reliably deliver 60+ yards per game with all the goal line work? Even if you only get 10 games out of him, he’s bringing value to the squad.

Stefon Diggs, WR, Commanders (ADP: 103, WR40)

Diggs has landed in D.C., and despite the clarity on where he’ll be playing, and the QB he’s going to be working with (Jayden Daniels), the fantasy community isn’t excited. That’s great for us, because there’s value here. He’s not the show stopper he used to be in Buffalo anymore, but he racked up 85 catches, 1,013 yards and four touchdowns last year and that’s coming off a torn ACL in 2024. Diggs has lost some juice as a deep threat, but he remains an absolute pill for opposing DBs who are trying to cover him in the short and intermediate game and he’s got Terry McLaurin in this offense to relegate him to slot and flanker duties where he can cook.

Diggs remained a demon on slants (79.2%) and digs (73.8%) last year, which makes his high reception total make perfect sense. He was also catching lots of screens, and using his twitchiness to make the most of them. Diggs still cleared 70% vs. man coverage (63rd percentile) and he was right around 80% vs. zone (54th percentile), again displaying a clear decline from prime Diggs, but more than enough to help Daniels. The Commanders suffered mightily with McLaurin injured for most of 2025, and the depth behind him was exposed as rotten. Diggs would be miscast if he had to be Washington’s alpha, but he makes for a perfect complement as McLaurin’s second banana. He will be Daniels’ chain mover, and bailout option. If you believe that Daniels’ ceiling as a passer is super high – which I do – then Diggs is precisely the second target needed to really maximize him. If Diggs doesn’t clear this ADP by a good margin I’d be surprised.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams (ADP: 102, QB13)

Stafford is old as hell by NFL standards. He’s so old that despite winning the MVP and throwing for 46 touchdowns he’s the last QB1 off the board in drafts. The knocks are obvious; he’s got back issues and he doesn’t run. Bonus points for pointing out that he’s a regression candidate. Sure the back stuff lingers, but he’s played in 15 or more games for three straight seasons, and he’s never run the ball so who cares about that?

Let’s talk regression. His yardage could regress, but we’ve seen him in the 4,700-yard range many times before. This is a guy who once threw for over 5,000 yards and he currently has two elite receivers in his arsenal. Are we worried about touchdowns? If you took away 12 of them from his season-high last year he’d be at 34…tied for the NFL lead with Jared Goff. So we’re looking at a guy who will be among the NFL leaders in touchdown passes if he regresses by double digits despite his whole skill room returning for 2026. And building in some regression makes sense, but a large reduction doesn’t. Stafford threw 58 passes inside the opponent’s 10-yard line last year, eight more than the next guy, Patrick Mahomes, and Stafford scored 12 more touchdowns in these scenarios. Davante Adams is likely the best end zone target in the league right now, and Puka is arguably the NFL’s best receiver. Stafford’s candidacy for this list is a very easy sell.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (ADP: 138, WR52)

That nostalgia’s not hitting for Samuel’s return to the Bay. His best years were in a 49ers uniform, but the reunion hasn’t spiked his ADP in the least. I do get it. His overall numbers were lackluster in Washington last season, some of the film is rough, and his Reception Perception profile shows some staggeringly bad success rates. Samuel was never a guy who was reliable vs. man, but he cratered to 53.8% vs. man coverages, a 7th-percentile mark. Yuck! And while beating zone is his bag, his zone success was at 79%, a 53rd-percentile finish. That’s very good, but it’s really not enough to justify being a zero vs. man and press. But here’s the thing, in Washington he was forced to be more than he’s suited to be at this point thanks to Terry McLaurin getting hurt. In San Francisco, he’ll have Mike Evans on the outside, as well as rookie De’Zhaun Stribling, and the coaches know his skill set intimately.

Samuel can still run slants and digs, he posted a 78.3% success rate on curls, and he was still heavily used in the screen game as well as the flats. That’s where Deebo needs to live, and I expect him there all year. Let’s not pretend Samuel didn’t have some big games. In the beginning of the year Deebo put up 70+ yards in three of the first five games and he scored in three of them as well. Washington also never used him as a rusher more than three times in any game, whereas San Fran should lean into that in order to keep some of the beating Christian McCaffery takes at bay. Deebo’s just a player with a real specific skill set and he’s back in the place that perfectly identified and used it. I think there’s gas left in the tank.