2026 Bad Values: Avoiding Busts With Inflated ADP Based on Hype and Narrative

With the team previews completed, and the NFL season – and many, many Drafts – at our doorstep, it’s time to finish the offseason with some lists! This one is important as you head into your Draft(s). I focus most of the offseason on finding values, but it’s often just as important to make sure you avoid bad value picks too. These next players aren’t players I think are bad, or won’t be fantasy relevant. They are players who are just being drafted at an ADP that doesn’t reflect the risk they carry, or is inflated by tremendous hype that might not be earned by what they’ve done on the field. Drafting these players at their current ADP could create a hole on your roster that might prove too big to climb out of.

Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs (ADP: 33, WR14)

Rice might be a shocking name because he’s the WR1 for the Chiefs, with arguably the best QB in the NFL throwing his way. For years, the WR1 on the Chiefs was a bit of a de facto title, as TE Travis Kelce has long reigned as their top pass catcher. That’s no longer the case though, and Rice is widely expected to lead the Chiefs in all receiving categories. On a per game basis, Rice is an absolute beast. He was right on par with Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Trey McBride last year in scoring per game, was Top 5 among WRs in receptions per game (6.6), and was fourth in targets per game behind only Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua and St. Brown. So that’s the case for this ADP, and it’s a compelling one considering who his QB is and how much Kelce’s declined. So what’s the risk?

Well, what if I told you that Rice has never even gotten to 950 yards receiving in a season, caught 80 passes, or started more than eight games? Rice is a beast on a per game basis, but availability has been a problem since 2024. After playing in 16 games and starting eight as a rookie, Rice has only played in 12 games over the past two seasons due to injuries and suspensions. I’ve very rarely brought off-field concerns into these posts, but with Rice it’s difficult not to because his previous misdeeds have landed him both suspensions and jail time, with his rehab from a 2025 knee injury coinciding with a stint in jail. Everything seems ready to go for 2026, but that’s quite the double whammy of risk for a guy who is already being drafted as a WR1. If he was going later, we could make the case for him as a possible WR1, and he’d be potentially returning value, but we’re drafting him near the peak of his expectations. And as far as his ceiling goes, he’s an atypical WR1.

Rice is essentially a one-pitch pitcher, with a hell of a pitch. Rice posted an 82.7% success rate vs. zone, an 83rd-percentile mark. It’s bonkers, and slants and digs made up nearly 50% of his routes run. He was great at both, and it makes sense why his targets and receptions are so juiced with Mahomes being the guy throwing those routes with zero fear. What if Mahomes got hurt though, or the Chiefs decided to try to expand Rice’s usage due to the fact that their entire receiving corps consists of players who need to be fit into certain slots – some of them Rice’s slot – to be effective? Maybe Rice could expand, but it would be a risk. He put up a 55.2% success rate vs. man, a ghastly figure, and he wasn’t much better vs. press (57.8%, 23rd percentile). Not only did Rice put up nasty success rates on go routes, corners and outs – the stuff we more typically see ace WRs dominate on – the Chiefs don’t even bother to have him try all that often. Even the digs, which made up 17.1% of his route tree, he was below average on at 65.2%. Rice really only shined on slants and screens, and without other tricks in the bag it’s no stretch to think defenses can game plan for it. If the plan stays the same and defenses still can’t stop it, Rice can surely be a WR1. But you’re already paying for that outcome, and more can go wrong here than with other, more well-rounded players in this range. Why eat the risk?

Colston Loveland, TE, Bears (ADP: 42, TE3)

Loveland is a really talented player and he had some monster games last season. It was clear that he was coming on toward the end of the 2025 campaign, which is often the case with high-end rookies, so it’s no surprise that he’s generating excitement, especially when he plays a position that usually has mercurial production. Loveland put up 90+ yards and a touchdown in each of Chicago’s final two regular season games, then had eight catches and 137 yards in Round 1 of the playoffs before putting up four for 56 in a loss to the Rams, which is still an okay TE outing. Those are serious numbers for a TE, and based on his pedigree and the draft capital spent on him, we should absolutely treat him like an essential cog of a promising offense. But…let’s not ignore what he actually did in totality. Loveland finished 2025 with 58 receptions, 713 yards and six touchdowns. Those are solid numbers for TE, where even elite players can goose you in any given week without batting an eye, but here are some players you are passing on at this ADP: Ladd McConkey, Garrett Wilson, Quinshon Judkins, Jaylen Waddle.

We’ll exclude Wilson who missed half the season with injuries, but compare Loveland to McConkey and Waddle. Both of those WRs were considered letdowns in 2025, yet both drew 100+ targets to Loveland’s 82. McConkey ended the year with 789 receiving yards and the same number of touchdowns, while Waddle put up 910 yards and also matched Loveland’s touchdown total. McConkey is on a Chargers team that’s expected to rebound with their offensive line largely intact again, while Waddle has joined a Sean Payton Broncos offense that’s expected to compete for a division title. 1,000+-yard seasons are well in the range of possibilities for both McConkey and Waddle, who will be the top targets on their teams. If you’re not projecting Loveland to approach those types of numbers, how can you justify lowering the ceiling so much just for position scarcity? Additionally, this ADP might be fine if Loveland really reaches his ceiling in 2026, but what if he doesn’t? A bad year for McConkey and Waddle was straight up better than a good rookie year from Loveland. What if they have good seasons and Loveland has a bad or mediocre one? You’ll lose sleep. Love this player, hate the ADP.

Jadarian Price, RB, Seahawks (ADP: 58, RB26)

Price is being drafted as the Seahawks RB1, which makes sense considering Zach Charbonnet is unlikely to be ready for Week 1. But that does not mean that Price is automatically ticketed for a bell cow role. He’s never been that guy, and while it’s not his fault Jeremiyah Love was the top RB prospect in football, that situation never allowed for Price to prove himself as a top back capable of carrying a full workload. Price’s numbers are very strong for limited action, especially scoring 13 touchdowns in 2025 on just 113 rushing attempts and six receptions, but to expect him to be a workhorse all year in his first NFL season is a stretch.

Not only is Price unproven with such a heavy workload, he doesn’t have chumps in his RB room. Emanuel Wilson was a quality backup in Green Bay last season who shined whenever he had a chance, and George Holani is lurking around with institutional knowledge, and the ability to fill a role. Even if Holani isn’t a threat to Price’s status as RB2 – and we’re not sure he isn’t – any role for Holani is cutting into Price’s. The fact that the Seahawks spent a first round pick on Price is doing most of the work, but these are the types of dangerous narratives that take hold this time of year and then seem ridiculous in retrospect. Price is a very good prospect and very well may be a productive player right away. But he’s dealing with legitimate camp competition and has a player in Charbonnet hovering over everyone who had a stranglehold on the highest-value touches on the team last season. Ken Walker was the Super Bowl MVP, and signed a huge contract to go be the Chiefs’ RB1 and he struggled to see the field for this team last year due to Charbonnet’s entrenchment on the goal line. We’re currently giving this rookie more respect than the likes of Jaylen Warren and Rhamondre Stevenson, who have not only proven themselves in their roles before, likely have similar ceilings.

Jaxson Dart, QB, Giants (ADP: 93, QB11)

Dart’s value in 2025 was very clear. He was an elite rushing QB in a game that puts tremendous incentives to play QBs that run the football. Dart had more rushing points than any QB in football last year besides Josh Allen, tied Trevor Lawrence for the second-most rushing TDs (9), was fourth in rushing attempts per game (6.1) and third in ground yards per game (34.8). On his team, only Cam Skattebo had more rushing attempts inside the opponent’s five-yard line and Dart scored the same number of touchdowns (4) on those attempts.

Dart also made frequent trips into the dreaded blue tent, and with a new head coach in John Harbaugh who is presumably invested in keeping his franchise QB on the field those hard rushing attempts can be scaled back. Harbaugh coached the greatest rushing QB of all time, Lamar Jackson, for eight seasons, and in those eight seasons Jackson logged 34 carries from the opponent’s five-yard line or closer. That’s a little over four per year, and that makes sense considering Baltimore often had power backs to take those licks. Dart nearly doubled Jackson’s average in Baltimore, and the Giants do have a battering ram in Skattebo to absorb that punishment. We should definitely anticipate a reduction in goal line work from Dart, which has to affect his value. So that begs the question of how good is Dart as a passer?

Ummm….about that. Dart had six games last year with fewer than 200 passing yards, and got over 250 yards just once. It’s fair to note his WR group was awful, and he barely played with Malik Nabers, but those are dreadful numbers and fatal in a fantasy context without upper crust rushing. A more detailed look shows that Dart was kind of a mess throwing the football, with zero successful throws to his left beyond 20 yards, and no area of the field standing out as a particular area where he thrived. Dart was reluctant to even throw the ball deep, which might be blamed on a porous O-line and WRs who weren’t open very much, but we can only go off what we’ve seen. And what we’ve seen is a QB who is very much developmental as a passer, and whose an obvious regression candidate as a rusher. He could become a disastrous pick, and while the ADP investment here is much less than the first two names on the list, there are still valuable skill players you’re passing on in this range and more secure QBs going later. Just bad value.