On the Move: Breaking Down A.J. Brown on the Patriots

The speculation is over, and the trade everyone has been anticipating – A.J. Brown to the Patriots in a reunion with Mike Vrabel – has happened. 2025 was a largely unhappy season for Brown, and while his stats at the end of the season were still high-end, the road to them was full of potholes. Together we’ll dissect the 2025 season, and figure out whether he’s a value in 2026 in a new environment, or if he’s a high-ADP landmine.

Brown finished 2025 with 78 receptions, 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns. The 1,003 yards marked his fourth straight season surpassing the 1,000-yard mark, and his sixth in seven NFL seasons. The journey, however, was fraught. Brown’s consistency was non-existent; he posted five games with 100+ receiving yards, which is what we’ve come to expect from one of the league’s truly elite pass catchers. He put up under 30 yards receiving four times though, with three of those games producing fewer than 15 yards, and two of them in single digits. For his ADP last season, which was No. 21 overall, that roller coaster is devastating. A lot of the blame for Brown’s overall underwhelming season was aimed at QB Jalen Hurts and an Eagles offense that had stagnated, which were valid critiques, but there’s no doubt that Brown’s own play was a factor as well.

In 2024, Brown was one of the NFL’s elite performers even if his stats weren’t quite at the level of his peers in thar rarified air. Last season, the numbers weren’t far off his 2024 pace, but the performance was. He suffered steep declines vs. man coverage 79.1% success, 97th percentile to 69.2% success and 54th percentile and against press, where he went from the 96th percentile (82.5%) to the 45th (65.9%). That’s ugly stuff. He also absolutely cratered vs. zone, going from 81.1% (72nd percentile) to 73% (16th percentile). These are marked drops, and while in 2024 you could definitely point at the offense and Hurts and criticize them for not getting more out of this beast, 2025 had to me Brown look inward. Mirroring those fall-offs, he saw major dips in success on all the deep routes like nines, corners and posts, and these drops all occurred while the Eagles increased his usage as their X receiver.

Now, while the overall success rates were way down and his downfield prowess seems to be disappearing, Brown was still lethal on intermediate stuff like digs and outs, and he continued to murder DBs on slants. He also had massive blowup games that showed when he was on, he was capable of delivering WR1 production. Reception Perception noted that in Tennessee, with Vrabel, Brown was used much more off the line of scrimmage. Moving to the Patriots affords him that ability, as they also brought in Romeo Doubs this offseason who is an X receiver himself. This offers flexibility for the Pats to move Brown around and exploit mismatches, while also potentially feeding him more layup targets as well that allow him to get in space and use his physical superiority to hurt teams after the catch.

There’s no doubting he’s lost something. His yards per catch fell by 3,2 yards, his yards per game dropped by 16, and even the YAC I’m hoping for was lackluster by his standards. He also battled injuries in the early part of the season and was far better in the second half than the first. Moving to the Patriots from Philly isn’t a major leap in terms of pass volume. Last year the Patriots attempted the 23rd most passes (502), vs. the Eagles who came in 24th with 497. The key differences will be target quality, which he’s upgrading by going to Drake Maye vs. Hurts, and how much target share he commands. In Philadelphia he had to contend with DeVonta Smith, an elite WR in his own right, as well as TE Dallas Goedert. The Patriots’ room includes Doubs, a less significant priority, and a slew of slot receivers who shouldn’t eat into Brown’s work and might even be displaced by him at times. He’s also walking into a situation where 2025’s target leader, Stefon Diggs who was targeted 102 times, is not on the team. Brown’s going to see a healthy target share from an elite passing QB.

Long story short, Brown’s standing took a hit. His final two seasons with the Eagles were strong overall, but came with major peaks and valleys and were a long way off from his first two. He’s turning 29 this season, and has had some lower body injuries, and may be transitioning from elite level to very good. That’s not a bad place to be though, and in the right situation it can provide oodles of value. Brown is moving to a team with a better QB, a head coach who helped him have some of his best seasons, and the ability to put him in a more advantageous role. Davante Adams is beyond his prime too, but he’s found a home where he can be a prolific fantasy scorer. That might just have happened here, and if his ADP drops from where it was in 2025 then I’d expect a lot of winning fantasy teams to count A.J. Brown as one of their members.