On The Move: Breaking Down D.J. Moore on the Bills

We finally have pieces moving around the NFL, and when that begins, so does our work as fantasy managers. Fantasy prep truly begins now, as we leave hibernation and re-familiarize ourselves with faces we know in different places. Sometimes, this is exciting, and others it downgrades our hopes. In the case of D.J. Moore, the newest Buffalo Bill, I think we are in for a treat.

Moore’s perception and value is likely to take a big tumble from where it was heading into 2025 based on him having his least productive season since he was a rookie in 2018, especially in a very productive offense with a budding superstar at QB in Caleb Williams. Moore played in all 17 games for the Bears, but caught a career-low 50 passes for 682 yards, also a career-low, and six touchdowns. Even worse, from 2019-2024 Moore averaged 140.5 targets per season, peaking at 163 and the lowest being 118 in 2020. Last season, Moore was targeted just 85 times, the second-lowest total of his career even though fellow receiver Rome Odunze struggled with injuries much of the season. What’s interesting about Moore’s time in Chicago is that he arrived with a bang, posting 96 receptions, 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns, all career-highs, in 2023 with Justin Fields at the helm and has gone downhill ever since despite Caleb Williams being a superior player. Per Reception Perception, this isn’t a surprise. According to their analysis, Moore’s a demon when it comes to getting open, but he’s not necessarily a technician or precise with the skill. That’s a problem for some QBs (Caleb) and offensive coaches (Ben Johnson), and due to that he spent most of last season running downfield routes that cleared space for others but not being targeted. That should change dramatically with the Bills, who are being run by Joe Brady who presided over some of Moore’s underrated seasons in Carolina.

In Buffalo, targets won’t be an issue. While Moore isn’t exactly a prototype X receiver, he’s more than capable of filling that role and the Bills are beyond desperate for a real deal No. 1 man. They fiddled with the likes of Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer on the outside in 2025, having them run routes like the nine and the curl, which Moore thrived on at a 61.5% and 88.2% rate, respectively. Josh Allen has matured a ton as a QB, and he’s become a passer who spreads the ball around very effectively. Still, any elite QB would prefer to have a true go-to pass catcher, and the last time Allen had one was Stefon Diggs. In four seasons with the Bills, Diggs was never targeted fewer than 154 times, never caught fewer than 100 passes, and never fell below 1,100 yards or eight touchdowns. Now, Moore is not the same type of player Diggs is, and he’s older now than Diggs was upon his arrival in Buffalo, but it’s safe to say that Moore’s target share is about to rise dramatically from where it was at in 2025.

Moore’s production was way down in 2025, and was down overall for the last two seasons. Looking under the hood, it does seem that had far more to do with his usage and chemistry with Caleb Williams than any sort of erosion in his physical gifts. To wit, he still averaged 13.6 yards per reception, and he still hauled in six touchdowns. When he was needed in the postseason, he turned in two games with five or more receptions, 50+ yards and he scored in each of them. Moore is not on the decline just yet, entering his age-29 season. He’s a depressed asset that the Bills just struck gold on. Last season, we saw George Pickens get traded to the Cowboys after not fully meeting his potential. The fit seemed perfect, and lo and behold, Pickens was a Top 5 WR. It’s lofty to expect Moore to be in the Top 5, but this does appear to be a perfect marriage of skillset and need. The Bills need a player who can get open on the outside in the worst way, and Moore needs an offense that will utilize his full field ability, not just send him on cardio excursions. It’s too early to look at average draft position, but Moore will almost certainly be undervalued, and I’d be shocked if he’s not a target for me come Team Previews season.