2023 Team Previews: Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Preview 2023

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Top 120

A.J. Brown, WR (ADP: 12): Brown was a dominant receiver in Tennessee who thrived on hyper efficiency and a huge target share. In Philadelphia, he upgraded at QB, saw more volume despite sharing the field with another talented pass catcher in DeVonta Smith, and leveled up into a bona fide alpha who belongs in the upper echelon of fantasy pass catchers. After posting 88 receptions, nearly 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns Brown is a locked in WR1 who no doubt belongs at this ADP, and can even return value. Beyond the big numbers, don’t be confused about Brown’s game. While his 17.0 yards per catch mark is absurd, he’s not just running nines all day long and using his beastly frame to win vs. smaller DBs in close quarters. This dude ranked in the 96th percentile vs. man coverage and press, and also put up an 81.9% success rate vs. zone. A.J. Brown is a complete receiver and you can feel very comfortable drafting him as a first rounder.

Jalen Hurts, QB (ADP: 24): Hurts is an elite rusher at the QB position, and we all knew that. What he did last season was silence every doubter – including yours truly – about what his ceiling was as a passer. While we all go nuts for QBs with high rushing floors, an inability to put up big numbers through the air can be damaging to rosters, because the upside of the ground game is blinding. Rushing touchdowns are still fickle, and when those don’t come, all some QBs leave us with is the floor. Hurts had the potential to be that guy; instead he threw for 3,701 yards and 22 touchdowns. Hurts is surrounded by elite pass-catchers, has a shiny new pass-catcher out of the backfield, and one of the beefiest, meanest lines in football protecting him. He’s going to be ridiculous.

Hurts has also notched double-digit rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, so as fickle as rushing TDs can be, he’s probably fantasy’s safest bet at QB to find the painted area on the ground consistently. Yes, drafting a QB at this ADP does cost you an elite WR or RB, but his high floor plus proven passing chops make him the rare QB who can pretty easily justify the cost.

DeVonta Smith, WR (ADP: 25): Smith  is the rare WR2 who is more than good enough to be a WR1 on other teams. He’s also the rare WR2 that offers security in volume despite being clearly second in the team hierarchy. Nothing about him being a WR2 is a knock on him…he’s simply not A.J. Brown. And even though he’s a No. 2 on a team that runs the ball a ton, and well, this offense is just that damn good that it can support borderline WR1 numbers.

Smith finished 2022 with 95 receptions, 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns and it’s totally repeatable. There isn’t a weakness in his route tree as he logged success rates of over 75% on every route except posts and nines. He shredded zone coverage at an 81.6% clip, beat man at a 75.6% rate and even defeated press coverage 78.8% of the time despite his small stature. Smith is borderline unguardable, and the only reason to not throw him the ball is Brown is just as open further down the field. There will be occasional duds for him here and there because there’s such a plethora of talent on this team, but that shouldn’t scare you off him at ADP.

**D’Andre Swift, RB (ADP: 64): Swift is about to be one of the most debated players in fantasy this summer. You can read a deep dive of my thoughts on him here, but safe to say I’m a believer. Yes, it’s unlikely that Swift will switch teams and suddenly be a workhorse even though Miles Sanders was last year. Swift gets hurt too much to just give him the ball like a prime Ezekiel Elliott, even if he’s as talented as Zeke was. With this offensive line, and surrounded by this artillery, Swift will have absolutely no issues dominating through efficiency. He’s never averaged 12 carries a game in his NFL career, and has never played a full season, and still has put up seven or more total touchdowns in each of his first three seasons.

Swift has averaged 4.6 yards per carry in his career, and averaged 5.5 last season. That’s definitely achievable again with the Eagles. Swift has also never dipped below 45 receptions in his career, an area where Sanders was deficient last season and is undoubtedly why they targeted Swift. And while he may lose early down rushing work to Rashaad Penny, there’s no reason to expect the Eagles to take Swift off the field near the end zone as he’s never scored fewer than five rushing TDs in a season. Swift has every tool in the toolbox, and a perfect supporting cast. His lone issue is durability, and maybe limiting touches means he can’t finish as a Top 5 back. At this ADP, so what? He’ll be a steal if it stays like this all summer.

Dallas Goedert, TE (ADP: 73): Goedert was my pick last season to be the next Mark Andrews, and the logic was sound even if he didn’t quite reach that height. Injuries played a role in depressing his numbers a tad, but even for 12 games he was still very productive. Goedert caught 55 passes for 702 yards and three touchdowns, and that latter number is a bit disappointing. It could also shoot up in 2023, touchdowns are fickle!

If you’re the kind of person who digs deeper to find guys with underrated skills, you’ll find it in you to like Goedert again. He graded out as PFF’s No. 4 TE behind Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Mark Andrews. He posted Football Outsiders’ No. 2 TE DVOA (36%), and he was third in Effective Yards (841) vs. his actual 702 yards. Lastly, he was second among TEs in Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement behind only Kelce. Goedert’s upside is somewhat limited because of the presence of Brown, Smith, and Swift, as well as Hurts’ own abilities near the goal line. Because of that, it’s hard to see Goedert hitting an Andrews-like peak, because Andrews is the top option and Goedert is, at best, 3rd. Still the offense is so prolific that he’s going to produce consistently, and his spike weeks are week-winning.

Fantasy Relevant (121-200 ADP)

**Rashaad Penny, RB (ADP: 116): Penny is a phenomenal RB, but as everyone worries about Swift’s health and Penny lurking behind him, they ignore Penny’s own hideous injury rap sheet. In fact, he’s on a cheap deal in Philly because he sustained an ugly leg break that opened the door for Kenneth Walker to take his job in Seattle. But let’s be optimistic and say he’ll be mostly healthy. If so, Penny will be a value on this ADP. He’s the RB40 based on situation and projected missed time, but even if he’s just Philadelphia’s early down back he’s going to chew up yardage behind the best offensive line in football.

For his career, Penny is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and he’s fully capable of striking from long distance, scoring seven career touchdowns from 30 yards out or further. Of course, Swift’s presence lowers his ceiling significantly, but a long-term injury to Swift turns Penny into a league-winning player. He’s that good. At this ADP he should be targeted, regardless of whether you’ve already drafted Swift or not. He’s much more than a handcuff.

Kenneth Gainwell, RB (ADP: 153): Gainwell’s hype train is definitely dying down after a disappointing 2022 in which Miles Sanders really had a stranglehold on rushing work, and Gainwell had to fight tooth and nail for scraps with Boston Scott, who is still in the mix. Gainwell is a career 4.4-yard per carry rusher, and a capable pass-catcher even though he saw his targets drop from 50 to 29 as a sophomore. The Eagles bringing in both Penny and Swift doesn’t bode well for their view of Gainwell, but the injury potential for both those guys is high, meaning Gainwell could get more volume out of necessity. At this ADP it’s almost all dart throws, so have fun. Personally, I’d look elsewhere.

Deep Cuts (200 & later)

Dan Arnold, TE (ADP: N/A): Arnold is a legit pass catcher, and if an injury hit Goedert, I’d expect Arnold to be fantasy relevant. It’s not typical to handcuff a TE, but this is the rare instance where you could if you were so inclined.