On the Move: Breaking Down Jakobi Meyers to the Raiders
Jakobi Meyers had a bit of a breakout season for the Patriots last season, and it earned him a nice contract from the Las Vegas Raiders. Can he continue to ascend in what should be a more favorable passing environment? Let’s dive in.
Meyers was the top option for New England last season, even if his 804 yards and 67 receptions don’t scream WR1. Meyers only played in 14 of 17 games, but his 96 targets led the team for the season, as did his career-high six touchdown receptions. The 67 receptions were second only to RB Rhamondre Stevenson, who had 69. The low totals don’t do justice to the player Meyers was. The Patriots tied for the 11th-fewest pass attempts in the NFL last season (540), and ranked similarly in passing yards and passing touchdowns. They ranked 23rd in Football Outsiders’ Pass DVOA (1.2%), and Mac Jones graded as PFF’s 24th-best QB. So while opportunity and role really are primary drivers for fantasy success, Meyers showed that having a leading man job in a bad offense isn’t necessarily a recipe for fantasy success.
Moving to Vegas, Meyers is certainly joining a better offense. The Raiders threw the 11th-most passes in the NFL last season, and will probably keep throwing due to a mediocre defense that should provide positive game scripts for the receivers. Jimmy Garoppolo represents a small upgrade from what Mac Jones was last season, and Meyers is leaving the muddled coordinator picture in New England for a team led by Josh McDaniels, the Patriots’ former longtime OC. Meyers is also bringing a proven skill set to this positive situation. Per Reception Perception, Meyers posted an 80.1% success rate vs. zone, and a 70.6% success rate vs. man coverage. He’s a pure route-running technician, thriving on dig routes, (82.9% success), slants (79.6% success), posts (69.7% success) and flats (92.6% success). He brings a lot of what Hunter Renfrow does to the table, but it appears Meyers is a superior version.
That’s the good stuff, but it ain’t all strawberries and balloons. The elephant in the room when it comes to discussing pass-catching options for the Raiders is that Davante Adams is arguably the best WR in the league, and he completely monopolizes target share wherever he goes. Adams drew 180 targets last season, the second-most in the NFL behind Justin Jefferson, and the next highest Raider was Mack Hollins at 94. TE Darren Waller is gone, and that frees up a good chunk of targets, but even he was only at 4.7 per game. Meyers will undoubtedly improve Las Vegas’ offense in a real-life sense, but the areas he excels at require volume to translate to success for fantasy managers. Meyers’ lowest success rates were on nine routes, corner routes and outs, which means he’s not racking up chunk plays. If he is not seeing high volume, he’s not going to do much better than last season’s numbers. Yes, the Raiders will pass more, but he’s not going to see a significant bump in target share with Adams in the fold and Renfrow also in the mix running great routes himself. Meyers could end up being sneaky productive in the event that Adams gets hurt and he’s forced into a bigger role, because he seems to have major half and full-PPR upside if he had a huge target share. Other than that, he looks to be a steady, but unspectacular FLEX guy.