NFL Week 4 Best Bets Against the Spread

This is a weekly aide for making a few dollars betting the NFL. Each week I will give you my favorite bets of the week against the spread, plus a Survivor Pool pick. For transparency, I will give you my record, and I will not reuse any Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of Pregame.com.

Season Record: 2-1

Survivor Teams Used: Philadelphia Eagles, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys

ATLANTA FALCONS (-4) over Tennessee Titans

The Falcons are a bit of an enigma, sitting at 1-2 through three games, but also having faced a pretty tough schedule. Offensively, the passing game remains excellent. Atlanta has eclipsed 345 yards in all three games, and unsurprisingly their only victory came at home. QB Matt Ryan has a long history of performing far better within his own, indoor confines, and that’s where he’ll be playing this Sunday. It was encouraging for Falcons backers to see RB Devonta Freeman awaken from his doldrums, and be given proper volume after Ito Smith exited with an injury. Freeman should be the bell cow of this offense, and he responded in Week 3 with 88 yards on 16 carries.

On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s defense has gone from atrocious in 2018, to middle of the pack in 2019. When paired with an explosive offense, this is a team capable of blowouts when it all clicks. That’s where the Titans come into the equation. Tennessee’s offensive DVOA isn’t horrific, but it is misleading. That DVOA is derived from a Top 10 running game that features a bruiser in Derrick Henry. If this game follows the trend of Atlanta’s passing game delivering at home, they can jump on Tennessee early and force them to lean on Marcus Mariota and the non-existent passing game. If that’s the scenario, the Titans will stall and the Falcons will coast on a big early lead to an easy cover with Freeman salting the game away. Tennessee’s defense has been solid, but limiting Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew is an entirely different task than slowing down the Matt Ryan-Julio Jones connection, while also sweating Calvin Ridley.

Minnesota Vikings (+2) over CHICAGO BEARS

This showdown between NFC North rivals pits two of the NFL’s toughest defenses through three weeks against each other. The reason I’m backing the Vikings, despite a road date, is that they boast a Top 13 defense that ranks inside the Top 10 against the run, and is among the league leaders in sacks. Minnesota is capable of shutting down the run and getting after the QB, which is a recipe for disaster for Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky. This guy hasn’t topped 231 passing yard in any of his first three games, and has thrown two interceptions already. Chicago’s offense didn’t awaken until last week, a game against the Redskins’ dreadful defense; prior to that, they’d scored 19 points in two games. They’re back to facing a good defense again, and I don’t believe they’ll be able to move the ball.

The Vikings have to move the ball too, though. Kirk Cousins has struggled for stretches this year, but there’s some hope based on his performance in Chicago last season, when he threw for 262 yards and a touchdown. This has the makings of a slugfest, but Trubisky might be utterly awful in this matchup, despite being at home, and the Vikings have the far superior playmakers at the skill positions.

Cincinnati Bengals (+4) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

This line doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, because even though the Bengals are not a good team, and their defense ranks in the bottom 10 of the league, they’re not facing an opponent who has proven they can capitalize on the matchup. Pittsburgh is a radically different team in 2019 than we’ve seen the past several years; Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell are gone, and Ben Roethlisberger, the conductor of it all, has been replaced by rookie Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh ranks 29th in the NFL in offensive DVOA, and scored 20 points last week in a loss to San Francisco despite turning the 49ers over five times. They’ve failed to hit 300 total yards in back-to-back games, and it’s unclear how the situation is going to improve.

Meanwhile, Cincinnati has quietly been a tougher out than most realize. Removing a demolition against the 49ers at home, the Bengals have lost two road games to the Seahawks and Bills by a combined four points. Their metrics aren’t pretty, but RB Joe Mixon, the heart of the offense, showed a pulse toward the end of last week’s game vs. the Bills. They also moved the ball fairly well at times in Buffalo only to self-own themselves with brutal turnovers. They’re no juggernaut, clearly, but the Steelers probably shouldn’t be giving more than three points to any team with this meager offense they’re trotting out on the field. In a heated rivalry game like this, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a desperate Bengals team win outright in an inspired effort.

SURVIVOR PICK: LOS ANGELES CHARGERS