NFL Week 2 Survivor Pool Pick and Best Bets
So I'll keep this short and sweet. Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread, as well as a pick for you Survivor pool players. I will, of course, not reuse any of my Survivor picks. All lines are courtesy of SportsBook.
2017 Record: 2-1
Used Survivor Picks: Steelers
**Home Teams are in caps.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+7) over New England Patriots
I must be insane, picking against Bill Belichick with 10 days to prepare for his opponent! Not exactly. I’m not so much betting against the wizard Belichick, as I am betting on the Saints to play a lot better at home. Traditionally, the Saints are infinitely better at home than they are on the road, which is the story of Drew Brees’ career in New Orleans. Unsurprisingly, he was underwhelming in Week 1 on the road vs. a solid Minnesota defense and now he’s an underdog by a full touchdown in his own building. Don’t get fooled. As of this writing, 81 percent of the action is on the Patriots, who got absolutely hammered at home by Alex Smith and the Chiefs. Yeah, I expect the Patriots to get a victory, but it’s silly to think this will be anything but a shootout. Anytime Brees is getting points at home, you should feel pretty good.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-6.5) over Minnesota Vikings
Seems weird that after the Steelers struggled a little to beat the Browns, and the Vikings mollywhopped the Saints in primetime, that I’d then feel comfortable advising you lay almost a touchdown with Pittsburgh. That’s because I can resist recency bias. Entering the year I was high on the Steelers, and down on the Vikings. I still am not buying the Vikings’ offense just because they handled the Saints in a home game, and I’m not fleeing the Steelers because they didn’t blow out a division rival on the road.
I suspect that the Steelers will get after Sam Bradford in ways that the Saints couldn’t, they’ll opt to actually cover WR Stefon Diggs, and Ben Roethlisberger will live up to his home-friendly splits. It helps that more than 80 percent of the action is on the Vikings in this one. Individuals are smart, and masses are stupid; when the masses zig, it’s wise to Zag.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-2.5) over Green Bay Packers
Once again, I will not overreact to what I see in Week 1. The Falcons sputtered just a bit in their opener, but they opened on the road. Atlanta is a much better home team, as are most dome clubs, and this week they get to return to Atlanta. Last year Green Bay was horrendous against No. 1 WRs – 28th per FootballOutsiders.com – and after one game this year the site has them ranked 31st. After Julio Jones posted a ho-hum game in the opener, he is primed to rip the Packers’ secondary to shreds. Aaron Rodgers might have some fun with the Falcons’ D as well, but I’ll roll with the 2016 MVP in his own building throwing to a healthy Julio with the NFL’s best rushing tandem also at his disposal.
SURVIVOR PICK: OAKLAND RAIDERS over New York Jets