MLB 2017 Preview: National League Predictions, Over/Under Bets
In lieu of traditional analysis of each team with predictions – who has time for that? – here are brief overviews of each team, and my recommendation for their over/under. The teams are ranked in the order I believe they will finish.
All over/unders are courtesy of SportsBook.
National League East
New York Mets (O/U: 88.5): This division is very top heavy, but the Mets’ ridiculous rotation wins out. Noah Syndergaard is the best pitcher in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw, and he’s backed up by a trio of stars in the best rotation in baseball. Offensively, they’re no juggernaut; but they do have great pop thanks to Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Lucas Duda. Those are solid run producers, and with their starting rotation they won’t need much offense. I don’t like that closer Jeurys Familia is likely to miss a chunk of time, but they can survive it. SP Matt Harvey’s health is crucial. OVER
Washington Nationals (O/U: 91.5): They’re just as good as the Mets, and this race will go down to the wire. The names in this rotation arent’s as glossy after the top two, but Joe Ross and Tanner Roark have very good potential. Their lineup is far better than the Mets, provided Bryce Harper bounces back (I think he will). The Nats get a full year out of Trea Turner, and added an extremely useful OF in Adam Eaton who should lead off and score 100 runs. Their bullpen requires a trade, and that pen coughing up a few games will cause their win total to drop a bit. UNDER.
Philadelphia Phillies (O/U: 73.5): Call me crazy, but I actually like this team. I think that the Phillies have a tremendous chance to be the out of nowhere contender for a few months. The rotation is young and exciting, particularly Aaron Nola and Vincent Velasquez. OF Odubel Herrera, 3B Maikel Franco and 1B Tommy Joseph all could be strong contributors this year, with Franco possessing superstar potential. They’re not going to challenge the Mets or Nats, but this could be a .500 team. OVER.
Miami Marlins (O/U: 76.5): This one is easy. The Marlins were once promising, but their rotation is bereft of talent. The tragedy of Jose Fernandez’s death this offseason torpedoed them entirely, because their ace is now Wei-yin Chen. Yikes. OF Giancarlo Stanton will anchor a decent lineup, but the lack of starting pitching, and a questionable bullpen will make Miami a major disappointment. I anticipate the Marlins will see what they can do about unloading Stanton this summer. UNDER.
Atlanta Braves (O/U: 74.5): The Braves are in a similar situation to the Phillies, except where Philly’s rotation is youthful and exciting, Atlanta’s is old and on the precipice of nuclear meltdown. After ace Julio Teheran, who is good, the Braves trot out Bartolo Colon (43 years old), R.A. Dickey (42 years old), Jaime Garcia and Mike Foltynewicz. And yes, Foltynewicz isn’t old, but he’s also awful. The top of Atlanta’s order is solid, but once Freddie Freeman is done the lineup becomes a mess. The bullpen isn’t much better. This O/U is confusing to me. UNDER.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs (O/U: 96.5): This team is loaded. Their lineup is arguably the best in baseball, with only Houston and Boston looking like they come close. Their starting rotation is deep, featuring two aces (Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester), an almost-ace (Kyle Hendricks), and two veterans (John Lackey, Brett Anderson) to round it out. This offseason they replaced Aroldis Chapman with Wade Davis in the bullpen, and he joins relief aces Hector Rondon and Carl Edwards Jr. This team has zero weaknesses. OVER.
St. Louis Cardinals (O/U: 84.5): The over/under seems a little low, and it’s a bit disrespectful to the Redbirds to set a line that anticipates them being non-competitive for the division crown. There are concerns about their rotation; Carlos Martinez is the only sure thing, although bounce backs from Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha could tip the scales. Their bullpen will be very solid behind Seung hwan Oh. The crew of Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist and lefty Brett Cecil is deep and sturdy. But really, St. Louis will make their hay on offense. They don’t have the superstar hitter, but Dexter Fowler is a fine table-setter, and every hitter in this lineup is a tough out. Beware a full-season breakout for Swiss Army knife Jedd Gyorko. OVER.
Pittsburgh Pirates (O/U: 83): The Pirates are perennially the team I kind of like, but feel bad for because of what a tough division they’re in. To make the playoffs they will need a return to form from OF Andrew McCutchen, because the talent around him is solid but unspectacular. Ditto for the rotation. Gerrit Cole can be a big-time ace, but the rest of the rotation is made up of high-upside question marks and middle-of-the-road vets. The same can be said of the bullpen, where Tony Watson figures to be an effective, but entirely unexciting closer. This club won 83 games last season, so a five-game leap is tough. UNDER.
Milwaukee Brewers (O/U: 70.5): The Brew Crew’s O/U went down after a 73-win campaign last year. I can see why it’s so low; their rotation is headed up by Junior Guerra, whose breakout came last year in his age-31 season. That’s rough. This team has a chance to boast the worst rotation and bullpen in baseball. On the plus side, their lineup is underrated. OF Ryan Braun is a great anchor, IF Jonathan Villar has the potential to have a 20-home run, 60-steal season, and several other Brewers regulars are very young with big upside. SS Orlando Arcia, OF Keon Broxton and OF Domingo Santana can all break out. I think the O/U misses the mark. OVER.
Cincinnati Reds (O/U: 70.5): Cincy has a little more pitching than Milwaukee, but like the White Sox, there’s a high probability that they’re actively tanking. That means OF Billy Hamilton, 1B Joey Votto, and really just about anyone else of value could be on the move, depressing their win total. They won just 68 games a season ago and I’m not sure what moves were made to make this club better. UNDER.
National League West
Los Angeles Dodgers (O/U: 94): The Dodgers have a very solid team from top to bottom. Obviously, you start with the best pitcher in baseball, Clayton Kershaw. Then you take a look at their lineup, featuring one of the best young players in the sport, shortstop Corey Seager. Travel to the bullpen, where closer Kenley Jansen is arguably the top reliever in MLB. Mixed in with these studs are assorted very good players that will form a division-winning club once again. Their greatest strength, however, could become their biggest weakness. Behind Kershaw, SPs Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill are devastating. They are also health risks; as are Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood and Hyun-jin Ryu and Scott Kazmir, who are already hurt. If injury ravages LA, the next team in this division could sneak past them. UNDER.
San Francisco Giants (O/U: 87.5): The Giants can match fire with fire against the Dodgers’ rotation, boasting Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto at the top. Their lineup is just as deep, although it lacks a Seager-esque superstar. In the bullpen Mark Melancon is a steady closer and Hunter Strickland is an elite setup man. The key for San Fran is the back end of the rotation. Matt Moore has a very high ceiling, and Matt Cain was once elite. If Moore and Jeff Samardzija have big seasons it’s no stretch to imagine the Giants winning the NL West. OVER.
Arizona Diamondbacks (O/U: 78.5): The D-Backs were my obvious pick to be a bust of a team in 2016 after an irresponsible spending spree, but this year they may be a bit underrated. OF A.J. Pollock is back, and missing him for the whole year was devastating. Pollock and 1B Paul Goldschmidt can wreak havoc, and this batting order possesses lots of power when you mix in 3B Jake Lamb, OF Yasmany Tomas and IF Brandon Drury. The rotation isn’t glittering, but there’s upside. Zack Greinke is due for positive regression, and the D-Backs added a young hurler in Taijuan Walker who has time left to reach his ceiling. Shelby Miller is also too young to give up on. The bullpen will really hurt them, but otherwise the pieces are there to be surprising. UNDER.
Colorado Rockies (O/U: 80.5): This number is optimistic, and it’s based entirely on Colorado’s loaded lineup. There’s power galore in here, thanks to 3B Nolan Arenado, SS Trevor Story, and OF Carlos Gonzalez. At the top of the order Charlie Blackmon is a masher with speed, and 2B DJ LeMahieu is a contact wizard. Especially in Coors Field, this team will score in bunches. But their pitching staff is one of the worst I’ve seen in my lifetime. I love SP Jon Gray, but he’s going to be a borderline ace at best, and there’s NOTHING behind him. I’m not sold on the bullpen either. I love the offense, but UNDER.
San Diego Padres (O/U: 66.5): The only thing stopping me from saying the Rockies have the worst rotation ever is the existence of San Diego’s. Oh my God. This rotation, and team in general, is offensively bad. The Padres signed Jered Weaver as a big addition. OF Hunter Renfroe has 36 plate appearances and is batting fifth. The projected cleanup hitter, Yangervis Solarte, has never hit more than 15 homers. You’d be hard pressed to find a number that I wouldn’t go under. UNDER.