NFL Week 15 Best Bets Against the Spread
Each week, I'll bring you the three best bets against the spread.
All lines are courtesy of MyBookie.ag.
2017 Record: 19-20
**HOME TEAMS IN CAPS
Tennessee Titans (+2) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The hate has gone too far! After successfully recognizing the Titans’ weaknesses last week and rolling with Arizona as a home underdog, the loss has swung the pendulum too far against Tennessee. Yes, they are a soft 8-5, but they still have eight wins. The 49ers look better with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center, but don’t get too ga-ga over his 2-0 record.
Jimmy GQ has thrown a whopping ONE touchdown in his two games, and while I like his No. 1 receiver Marquise Goodwin, he’s on the low end of WR1s in the NFL. This is not an offense currently constructed to feast on a soft D like the Titans, and they’re still a three-win team. A competent QB cannot cure all ills.
On the flip side, the 49ers don’t have a good defense. They have looked better in Garoppolo’s first two games, but they were up against Mitch Trubisky, and the combination of Tom Savage and T.J. Yates. San Francisco’s pass defense is the third-worst in the NFL per FootballOustiders.com, and this seems ripe for Marcus Mariota to get back on track. Now that the Titans are a dog, there’s value once again with them.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS
I don’t like picking so many road teams, but this week is weird. The Cowboys and Raiders are both in the playoff hunt, but despite the home field, I think Oakland’s defense is too broken to handle competent offenses. QB Dak Prescott has seemed to get over his rough patch, and the duo of Alfred Morris and Rod Smith have performed for three straight weeks. The Raiders are bad against the run, and the actual worst against the pass, so I’m expecting the Cowboys to run up the score. Oakland has the potential to keep up, but so far this year Derek Carr has taken a step back. This will be competitive, but in the end Dallas will control time of possession, and the game.
New England Patriots (-3) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Ugh, a third road team. My reliance on traveling teams is worrisome, but facts are facts. Bill Belichick does not lose twice in a row, and since 2013, he doesn’t lose to the Steelers either. Pittsburgh’s offense is as scary as it gets thanks to Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, but their defense is very vulnerable without CB Joe Haden. We just saw Joe Flacco light it up on the road for 269 yards and two scores, so imagine what Tom Brady will be capable of. These two teams are in direct competition for home field advantage in the AFC playoffs, which matters a great deal for the Pats.
TE Rob Gronkowski is back from suspension, and WR Chris Hogan will have his sea legs back after doing next to nothing last week in his return from injury.