2025 Team Previews: Houston Texans
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
**Nico Collins, WR (ADP: 13, WR7): After Collins’ incredible 2024 season I am unclear as to how he can still be a value, but be thankful. If you have a pick late in the first round and you can snag Nico Collins you can pair him with an elite RB and be in pole position for a title. That is how damn good Collins is.
He was limited to 12 games last season thanks to a hamstring injury and he still caught 68 passes for 1,0006 yards and seven touchdowns. He was fourth among all pass catchers in yards per game last season (83.8) despite catching only 5.7 passes per game. At 14.8 yards per reception, Collins was one of the most efficient receivers in football, as a figure that high is usually reserved for deep ball specialists. Collins was far from that, serving as a full field force of nature in this offense. Collins posted elite success rates on almost every route last year aside from the comeback, and torched man coverage to the tune of 77.5% (93rd percentile). He was even more vicious vs. press (82.3%, 96th percentile while being pressed on 21.8% of routes), and he was well beyond 80% vs. zone coverage too. And Collins has upward mobility.
Per Reception Perception, he is lining up as the X receiver on the line of scrimmage more than 80% of his snaps. With a new offensive staff coming in, we could see them actually get creative with Collins like the Falcons did with Drake London for his breakout campaign. If this is what we’re already getting from Collins, a “breakout” just means WR1 overall. That’s the upside you’re possibly getting at the back of Round 1.
Joe Mixon, RB (ADP: 60, RB23): If I could somehow secure a guarantee that Mixon is ready and able-bodied for Week 1, then this ADP is an absolute steal. I understand that Mixon’s older and has endured significant wear and tear, but he’s proven he can still turn his volume into 1,000+ yards and double-digit touchdowns more often than not. Last season Mixon was among the biggest values in fantasy until he tailed off toward the end of the year, after getting hurt. That’s built into his current ADP here, and he still would be a major value as Houston’s clear-cut primary back.
The problem is that Mixon is currently hurt, and we don’t have any insight as to when he’ll be back. Now if I’m being sold on a 29-year old RB who is not healthy going into the season after logging 245+ carries in three of the last four years, and 200+ carries in six of his eight NFL seasons, now I’m thinking about putting him on a Do Not Draft list. I am not there yet with Mixon, because if, closer to Draft Day, it’s obvious that he’s a go for Week 1 I am back in. But we don’t have that info yet, so I can’t call him a value. Wait for that news, because outside of a current injury there isn’t anything about Mixon’s play or situation that dictates he can’t be a critical piece of a winning roster.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
**C.J. Stroud, QB (ADP: 130, QB18): Stroud is such an interesting case, because he’s been Spartan kicked down the rankings this year after being drafted as a Top 50 player in 2024. Stroud undoubtedly tanked teams last season, so the vitriol isn’t unfounded, but did we suddenly decide he actually stinks? I investigated what went wrong here, but a lot of things happened that were beyond Stroud’s control. His offensive line was down, allowing the third-most sacks in the NFL. He had a star-studded receiving corps that became a MASH unit. Collins got hurt in the middle of his stellar season, Stefon Diggs’ knee blew out after eight games, and Tank Dell’s deep ball wizardry was undercut by Houston’s protection issues. Many managers learned a hard lesson about overdrafting pocket passers; don’t do it unless you have real certainty that they can exceed the necessary benchmarks to compete with the dual threat guys. Stroud had/has the talent, and we’ve seen him throw for more than 4,000 yards, but until it’s all come together for multiple seasons going all-in on this archetype is high risk.
As for 2025, I am in love with this ADP. It’s all reward, almost zero risk. Diggs and Dell aren’t in the picture anymore, but Collins is, and they’ve re-tooled the WR corps to not only replenish talent, but make the hierarchy make more sense. Stroud’s talent didn’t just disappear unless there was a Monstar invasion that I’m unaware of, and the biggest dips in his performance can mostly be tied to his line failing him. If you draft him here and he stinks, who cares? Add another QB off waivers or work a trade. Unlike last season, where you were passing on RB2s and WR2s, or a starting TE, now you’re drafting him instead of Keon Coleman or Rachaad White. I’m absolutely comfortable with passing on guys like Baker Mayfield or Bo Nix in order to wait for a C.J. Stroud. The upside is the same, but at this ADP I barely see a downside.
Jaylin Noel, WR (ADP: 260, WR79): Noel is my preferred gamble if you want in on the Houston rookie receivers. Jayden Higgins’ college teammate isn’t as impressive to behold, but his production was awesome – 80 receptions, 1,194 yards, eight touchdowns – and his play style lends itself to potentially filling the role that Tank Dell was supposed to have. His size says he’s a slot receiver. You mustn’t be afraid to dream bigger darling. He was very good vs. zone coverage, a requisite skill for slot players, but he was actually far better vs. man (74.1%, 84th percentile). A ton of his routes were slants and flats, which again, lends itself to slot work and could make Kirk sweat, but an 83.7% success rate on posts is eye-opening.
With this skill set, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Noel forced himself onto the field and started making plays, and he’ll remain undervalued because he’s small and it’s hard to square the circle when tiny receivers are just good on the outside.
Notable Players
Nick Chubb, RB (ADP: 136, RB47): Deep down I desperately want to be excited about Chubb in light of Mixon’s injury issues this summer, but in my heart of hearts I don’t believe he’s Nick Chubb anymore. This man’s been through some catastrophic injuries the last few years, and before going down last season he was a shell of himself. Chubb, a career 5.1 yards per carry guy was averaging just 3.3 in 2024. He did not qualify for an official ranking on PFF because he didn’t have enough snaps, but his grade was nasty (57.5). For context, Mixon was PFF’s No. 17 back with a 76 grade, and Chubb was behind Dare Ogunbowale.
It's possible that Chubb can serve as a goal line back in tandem with another rusher if Mixon is out, but if Mixon is on the roster I don’t see how Chubb is anything more than a pure handcuff. If Mixon does miss time, Chubb will probably begin the year as the primary rusher, but if his play continues at this level it won’t be long before he falls into a timeshare, and eventually on the lesser end of it. Unfortunately at his age and with his injury rap sheet, it’s a fairy tale to expect his burst to magically come back. We’re at the end of the line, sadly.
Jayden Higgins, WR (ADP: 143, WR54): There’s buzz for Higgins, and there’s a path to targets because the depth chart is unsettled behind Collins, but I’ll be honest I don’t see it here. He’s a big guy and he posted big numbers – 87 receptions, 1,183 yards, nine touchdowns – at Iowa State, but he showed up as a very uninspiring separator per Reception Perception. That doesn’t bode well for a player who has one of the finest receivers in the game (Collins) occupying the X receiver spot where he almost exclusively played in college. If the plan is to have Higgins move to flanker, good luck. His success rates on digs, outs, corners, posts, nines and slants were all below average and he was sub-60% vs. man coverage (15th percentile), and barely above 50% vs. press (16th percentile). Ghastly stuff for a guy who is projected to be an X receiver in the NFL. Maybe Houston is planning to plop him in the slot? He was better vs. zone (78.6%, 46th percentile), but not so good that you’d kick Christian Kirk off the field or into a role he’s not suited. To me, the hype is because he’s huge and has sick highlights, but the fit is awkward, and the body of work shows that, at best, he’s a project.
**Christian Kirk, WR (ADP: 163, WR62): We’re a good ways away from his shocking breakout first season with the Jaguars, but in Houston Kirk may have found a home that can restore him to relevancy. Kirk absolutely can still sting teams with big plays down the field out of the slot, and that’s almost definitely where he will be deployed in this offense that needs the juice they lost when Tank Dell got hurt.
Kirk is a very different type of player than Dell; you won’t get the acrobatic contested catches or the varied crisp routes, but he makes chunk plays all the same. Kirk is a good value here and very solid depth for deeper league rosters.
Dalton Schultz, TE (ADP: 231, TE29): 2021 was a long time ago, and that was the last and only time Schultz was a viable weekly TE. He can still be a good spot start when the matchup calls for it, but otherwise forget about him on Draft Day.
John Metchie III, WR (ADP: N/A): Metchie is going into his third year, and he’s been unable to make an impact or get regular snaps. With this room as crowded as it is, I wouldn’t be eyeing Metchie on Draft Day and he’d have to really earn a lot of targets early in the year for me to even be moved to add him.
Xavier Hutchinson, WR (ADP: N/A): Like Metchie, Hutchinson is entering his third season, and had some chances last year to establish himself but couldn’t do it. The Texans drafting Higgins and Noel as highly as they did tells us a lot about where they’re at with Hutchinson and Metchie.
Tank Dell, WR (ADP: N/A): Dell is not a factor for 2025, but he’s a real deal fantasy option when he gets healthy. If you’re in a dynasty or extremely deep keeper format with multiple IR spots, he is worth a stash.
Handcuffs
Woody Marks, RB (ADP: 218, RB62): Marks transferred to USC last season and hit paydirt, rushing for 1,133 yards, piling up 1,454 yards from scrimmage and scoring nine touchdowns. History tells us fourth round RBs aren’t usually massive impact guys, but Marks can definitely be a factor in Year 1 on this team. Mixon is dealing with injury, and Chubb is the presumed backup, but he may also be washed up with waning explosiveness. Marks is a home run threat in this RB in a way that Mixon and Chubb definitely aren’t, and that can mean they carve out a role for him right away. That doesn’t mean you have to draft him, but if he pops early in the season he’ll be worth a speculative add.
Dameon Pierce, RB (ADP: 335, RB92): Pierce is hanging around despite the fact it seems the team hates him. He had a really impressive rookie year and just immediately fell out of favor, becoming a special teams player. I still think he can do damage if given opportunity, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll get opportunity without multiple long term injuries in front of him.