2025 Team Previews: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
Relevant Players
**Bucky Irving, RB (ADP: 20, RB10): Irving was a breakout star last season, completely blowing past Rachaad White on the depth chart and finishing the season with over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. Bucky brought everything to the table. He was efficient (5.4 yards per carry), contributed as a pass catcher (47 receptions, 392 receiving yards on 52 targets), delivered in short yardage (four touchdowns from inside the three-yard line) and provided chunk plays (11 plays of 20+ yards gained).
There’s queasiness about his current ADP. Irving isn’t built like a typical workhorse, so injury risk is a concern. The Bucs are going on their fourth offensive coordinator in three seasons, so there could eventually be some crossed wires when the play caller changes this often. There’s also the fact that White is still there to potentially take snaps on passing downs. But all of this, to me, is nullified by the fact that Irving is simply one of the best RBs in football. He may not be huge, but he runs powerfully, he’s decisive at the line of scrimmage and shifty to elude tackles. He hits the holes hard, and he has breakaway speed. This is all captured by PFF, who graded him as their No. 4 RB in 2024 behind only Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson and Josh Jacobs. Maybe to some the ADP seems high, I think it looks like a value.
Mike Evans, WR (ADP: 40, WR17): Speaking of values, Evans is back and probably being underdrafted again. Now, Evans will turn 32 this season and there were some signs of decline in his play last year, but the fact is he’s going into Year 12 of a Hall of Fame career and he’s never had fewer than 1,000 yards in a season. He has put up double digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons, and done so six times in his career. Evans might see his target share dip a little as the Bucs increase the talent in the receiver room to prepare for his inevitable fall-off, but we haven’t seen signs yet that it’s here.
I can understand trying to be a year early vs. a year late on a longtime great talent, but this ADP isn’t pricing him like he’s an upper crust WR. I think it’s a fine ADP, and Evans as your WR2 sounds like a very healthy situation.
Baker Mayfield, QB (ADP: 73, QB7): Mayfield has lived up to his lofty draft ceiling in Tampa Bay, putting up 4,000+ yards in each of his first two seasons with the Bucs. Hopefully yet another OC change doesn’t spoil the fun, because if they keep the wheels turning, Mayfield is like fantasy Santa Claus doling out points to all his skill guys.
Year 1 of Tampa Baker brought us 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns. Last season, when we wondered if it was a fluke, he put up 4,500 yards on the button and tossed 41 touchdowns. A 7.2% TD rate is not sustainable, so that’s a bit of a red flag for him at a fairly elevated ADP, but these two seasons place him squarely toward the back of the Top 10 QBs. It’s a fine place for him to be drafted, but I will personally be waiting longer for better values.
Chris Godwin, WR (ADP: 80, WR36): Godwin is a puzzling player to figure out this offseason, because he’s coming off a very serious injury, but he was also insanely dominant before getting hurt. Godwin was finally all the way back from his other devastating injury, multiple torn knee ligaments, and before going down he had 50 catches for 576 yards and five touchdowns in seven games. With a pure as they come X receiver on the outside in Evans, Godwin was free to do what he does best and that’s eat defenders alive through craftsmanship. Godwin punished zone defenses, posting an 83.7% success rate (88th percentile) and hurting teams on dig routes (77.5%) slants (80%) and flats (85.2%). Godwin was also a dominator vs. man coverage, winning at a 75.2% clip, good for the 81st percentile.
Godwin got paid this offseason, so the Bucs put their money where their mouth is, but the facts are we have a guy who has blown out his knee and now horrifically dislocated his ankle in the last few seasons and is about to turn 30. Yes, this ADP is building in some of that injury risk, but if Godwin just isn’t the same he still could underwhelm even a depressed ADP, especially when the Bucs drafted someone who can replace him. I’m a Godwin fan, but I’m more likely to trade for him after he’s shown he’s back than assume the risk on Draft Day.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
Emeka Egbuka, WR (ADP: 110, WR47): Egbuka is generating a ton of excitement, and rightfully so, as he’s a hell of a player. He had monster sophomore and senior seasons at Ohio State, putting up over 1,000 yards in each of them and scoring 10 touchdowns apiece. He’s consistently been overshadowed though by bigger talents, and while he deserves his flowers, he’s not quite on the level of the Garrett Wilson/Chris Olave/Jaxon Smith-Njigba types.
The main reason Egbuka poses a real threat to Godwin is that he’s a rugged, physical receiver who absolutely pounds zone. He was an 83.6% success rate player vs. zone, 82nd percentile in college football. He put up 87.5% and 82.6% success rates on slants and flats, respectively, and was at 73.7% on digs. He’s not nearly the man-beater that Godwin is, however, and that’s why if Godwin is right you’re going to see Egbuka likely relegated to slot-only duties all season and, at times, be a fourth option in the pass-catching hierarchy. Egbuka profiles as a very strong player, someone who can make big contributions to fantasy rosters given enough volume. But he’s not an efficiency king,and he doesn’t have the physical traits to consistently sting teams down the field for big chunks. He is currently going late enough that missing on him isn’t a team-sinking mistake, but in redraft leagues I think there’s a lot of roadblocks to him hitting his ceiling.
Notable Players
Rachaad White, RB (ADP: 134, RB44): When White had his magical 2023 season, the entire world kind of saw through it. He was living on opportunity, receiving volume, and touchdown fortune. That stuff all disappeared in 2024 as Bucky Irving emerged as an honest-to-goodness elite RB, and White wound up having an overall decent campaign – 1,006 total yards, nine touchdowns – that probably never felt good at any point to his managers. Barring an Irving injury, expect more of the same.
White is a solid NFL RB, but he’s not special, and there’s no reason to have him taking Irving off the field because there isn’t anything he provides that Irving isn’t superior at. White is a high-level handcuff, and because of Irving’s size, White will have a standalone role. It’s just not one with ceiling unless the injury comes, so starting him when Irving is healthy is just desperation.
Jalen McMillan, WR (ADP: 172, WR63): McMillan is generating shockingly little buzz for a player who averaged over 12 yards per catch last season, scored eight touchdowns and returns for Year 2 with the entire offense intact. McMillan’s run from Weeks 14-18 was legendary, as he scored at least once in all five games, caught 64% of his season total of passes, amassed 68% of his receiving yards and scored seven of his eight touchdowns. McMillan was averaging 13.2 yards per catch during this span. Volume wasn’t McMillan’s strong suit, but he did rip off eight plays of 20+ yards, and four of them went for touchdowns.
It's worth noting that McMillan did spend the majority of his rookie season doing absolutely nothing. There’s a reason, and it’s that when he wasn’t making splash plays he was really struggling on the finer points of his craft. McMillan posted ghastly success rates on slants (60.7%) and curls (54.8%), and he ran both of those routes more than 10% of the time. Where McMillan cooked was on nines, posts and digs, all routes that are down the field. That’s great for efficiency, but it leads to high variance, and makes his weekly floor very low.
At this ADP, he can’t really hurt you. He can be deployed as a spot starter and actually win you a week if he and Mayfield connect. But you’re going to have to play him a bunch if you want to raise your odds of getting those big games, and that means absorbing some horrible outcomes in the process. Given how crowded the receiver room is, and how much he struggles on the meat and potatoes routes, McMillan’s playing time isn’t a given and that also reduces the likelihood of enjoying his splash plays. The gamble is fine – he’s talented – but I don’t have expectations.
Cade Otton, TE (ADP: 184, TE20): Otton is an okay TE in a really good offense. The skill position cupboard is loaded though, so Otton will never be a focal point of the passing game. With career highs of 600 yards and four touchdowns, counting on him for anything more than being a spot streamer is foolish. He’s never performed like a season-long option, and plenty of other TEs are around with higher ceilings.
Tez Johnson, WR (ADP: N/A): Johnson is highly unlikely make a fantasy impact, but he is worth noting because he’s so damn small and explosive that he’s interesting. At 5’10, 160 lbs. Johnson is definitely one of the smaller players you’ll see, but that didn’t keep him from producing at Oregon where he scored 20 touchdowns in the past two seasons and posted 1,182 yards with the 10 scores in 2023. Johnson’s route tree doesn’t paint the picture of a fully formed NFL WR, but he did post an 86.4% success rate on flats and a 100% success rate on screens. That’s for sure how he'd be used this season by the Bucs, and his 79.3% success rate vs. zone defenses tells us that he could improve and wind up being a useful fantasy option out of the slot one day.
Handcuffs
Sean Tucker, RB (ADP: 303, RB84): Tucker’s a pretty good player, but now entering Year 3 it seems clear he isn’t special, and non-special RBs that were undrafted and haven’t made an impact in their first two seasons usually don’t pop. It’s not impossible, but he’d need injuries to both Irving and White to get a real crack at meaningful snaps, and his lack of usage in the passing game doesn’t bode well for overall ceiling even if he had the lead role.