2025 Team Previews: Washington Commanders
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
Jayden Daniels, QB (ADP: 29, QB3): It’s rare that a team’s highest-ranked player is a QB, but that’s how special Daniels was as a rookie. In last year’s preview, Daniels was the QB12 off the board and I wrote “He isn’t just a great value at QB, this is one of the best values in all of fantasy.” That came to fruition, and I hope you got to enjoy that, because now he’s being drafted exactly where he belongs, which is among the elite fantasy QBs.
Daniels is basically the second coming of Lamar Jackson, but he came into the league more advanced as a passer. When Jackson took over the Ravens offense from Joe Flacco, he was akin to a running back under center. He was completing 58.2% of his passes and he threw six touchdowns vs. three interceptions in seven starts. Daniels completed 69% of his passes last year and threw 25 touchdowns against nine picks as a rookie while starting all 17 games. He also accomplished this with basically one quality wide receiver at his disposal. So it’s good to see that Daniels is already fairly polished as a passer, because his upward trajectory there is what takes him from a strong fantasy starter to a weekly difference maker worthy of an ADP in the first three rounds.
The bread and butter, though, is his running. He projected as an elite rusher from his time at LSU, and it translated immediately. He finished the season with 891 rushing yards and six touchdowns, and there’s plenty of room for him to get to 1,000. Daniels did suffer an in-season rib injury that cost him most of a game, and limited his rushing for several weeks. Am I going to burn a Top 3 pick on a QB? Probably not, but I have zero quibbles if someone does decide to go for him at this ADP.
Terry McLaurin, WR (ADP: 45, WR19): McLaurin’s current contract dispute is starting to edge into the worrisome category, but strictly in terms of talent and role, he’s as safe a WR2 as you can find. For years we wondered what it would look like if McLaurin had a real QB, and in 2024 we found out. It looks like 82 receptions, 1,096 yards and 13 touchdowns. McLaurin was Washington’s only real threat in the WR corps, and teams still couldn’t contain him from breaking off big plays.
Half of McLaurin’s 13 touchdowns were from more than 15 yards out, and he had 12 plays of 20+ yards gained. That aligns with his success rates; as an almost exclusive X receiver, McLaurin posted top notch man (74.4%, 79th percentile) and press (75%, 76th percentile) numbers while dominating on nines (67.4%), posts (77.3%) and digs (75.9%). Those are big boy routes that he won on regularly, and he also brutalized DBs on slants (80.4%). Now, McLaurin does fall just shy of the cream of the crop because he does struggle vs. zone coverage. That’s always been a hole in his game, as it is for many true X receivers. The same can be said of Tee Higgins and D.K. Metcalf, and it’s never held them back from being major cogs of championship rosters. But it can make McLaurin a bit vulnerable to duds, which there were a handful of. He’s not perfect, but he’s damn good and makes a ton of sense at this ADP.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB (ADP: 80, RB30): Robinson appears to be on the outs despite being an underrated fantasy asset. Durability has been an issue for him, as he’s missed time in all three of his seasons, but when he is featured he delivers. Robinson has cleared the four yards per carry mark in back-to-back seasons, consistently hovered close to 800 rushing yards, and he’s posted an 1,100-yards from scrimmage season in his young career. Robinson scored a career-high eight rushing touchdowns in 2024 as the lead back for the Commanders, and looked primed to lead an uncertain RB depth chart behind him.
Wherever he lands, or if he remains on the team, we will not see Robinson most of the time on clear passing downs. That doesn’t mean he won’t catch passes on first or second down, nor does it mean he’s necessarily coming off the field near the goal line. His injury risk does need to be acknowledged, but it’s built into this ADP, and if he’s healthy for the whole year this is a 1,000-yard rusher with double-digit TDs. That is, if he gets enough opportunity. That seems very much to be in question with Washington, and will certainly be the case if he changes teams after training camps have shut down.
Deebo Samuel Sr., WR (ADP: 83, WR36): Samuel was a very, very interesting addition to this offense. While the Commanders were begging for a WR2 that can take some heat off McLaurin, Samuel represents a highly unconventional option to fulfill that need. Let’s address the elephant in the room; from a production and visual standpoint, Samuel looked washed in 2024. He managed only 670 receiving yards in 15 games, and his rushing production dwindled along with his touchdown total. His Reception Perception profile backs up what we all saw, and that was a diminished player. Samuel was hideously bad vs. man coverage, posting a 1st percentile 39.7% mark. Samuel was never considered a high-end man-beater, but that was legit ghastly, and his zone marks tumbled as well down to 76.3% (30th percentile). That’s better, but it isn’t making up for those man results. This is why despite the myriad injuries that hit the 49ers offense Deebo’s production never ticked up, and why they were comfortable trading him.
But…he’s not going to be a focal point in Washington. Samuel’s zone rate was down, but it wasn’t quite in the tragic category, and is can be better in 2025. They need what he’s theoretically capable of against zone, because Daniels’ rushing ability forces teams to sit in zone a lot. Samuel was still effective on slants and routes in the flat, and he remained a menace after the catch, with a near-30% broken tackle rate. The Commanders have someone whom they can manufacture touches for, and who can still make plays with the ball in his hands on quick throws. This won’t be prime Deebo though, and this ADP is still too high for what he’s likely bringing to the table. This is a much more impactful real life addition for Washington than it’ll appear on the stat sheet.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
Austin Ekeler, RB (ADP: 135, RB43): Ekeler looked like his old self at times last season, but also suffered two concussions and did not see his role increase when Brian Robinson missed time. When he was healthy, Ekeler had burst and that was evident through his efficiency. His 4.8 yards per carry were the highest since his second season in 2018, and his yards per reception (10.5) were the highest since 2019. He was downright spry out there, being kept fresh with around a 50% snap rate and occasionally handling whole drives. That is fun, but that role doesn’t have a lot of upside. The ceiling for him, we thought, was a shot to be closer to a three-down back playing behind Robinson, who is injury-prone. But when Robinson went down, we simply saw more involvement from players like Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez, rather than an increase in Ekeler’s workload.
Now, was that because he had sustained a concussion fairly early in the season? Or are we at a point where Ekeler is just not going to be used outside of his part-time role? If it’s the latter, then this ADP is the right one. He’ll have a standalone role, he remains explosive and has a bit of TD upside but there’s just not enough volume to be more than a mid to low-level FLEX. If it’s the former, you’ll still need an injury for that ceiling to be lifted. Ekeler is more appealing as depth in very deep leagues, as waiver help is harder to find and Ekeler will offer weekly production, even if it’s mediocre.
Notable Players
Jacory Croskey-Merritt, RB (ADP: 152, RB52): Croskey-Merritt has burst into our consciousness due to the drumbeat of Brian Robinson Jr. suddenly being cast from the offense like a football leper. Seventh-rounders don’t typically make quantum leaps like this as rookies, so caution must be used. On the other hand, fast risers like this in camp do sometimes wind up being fantasy comets, so we cannot ignore it either. In an offense that’s projected to put up points, having the primary back will return massive value. If it’s Croskey-Merritt, at this ADP, that could be league-winning. But I’m not anywhere near trusting him to be that, and I’m more inclined to think this backfield might end up being a big fat mess for fantasy managers.
Zach Ertz, TE (ADP: 165, TE19): Ertz will turn 35 this season, and I fully expect to be writing about him weekly in the waiver articles. He is as boring as boring gets, but he finished the season with a very respectable seven touchdowns, and he caught 66 passes for 654 yards, passable numbers for a volatile position.
Reliability is his calling card. Ertz caught four or more passes in 10 of his games, and got to 40+ yards in seven of them. None of that is game-changing in the slightest, but he was trusty and necessary in an offense devoid of impact pass catchers behind McLaurin. That could still be the case this year if Samuel is just cooked too. So while I wouldn’t draft Ertz, because you don’t need to draft production like this, you should remember him during the season if your TE gamble isn’t paying off.
Noah Brown, WR (ADP: 339, WR114): Brown is so fast, and he’s capable of some really insane plays, but nope. I won’t fall for it anymore, and I won’t buy in. We’ve seen Brown get opportunities in the past in Dallas and in Washington, with good QB play, and just not be able to deliver bankable results.
Ben Sinnott, TE (ADP: 334, TE42): Sinnott is a second round TE who you’d think, based on that draft capital, would be shoehorned into this offense with only Ertz in front of him. The fact that he’s not blazing past old man Ertz for targets should tell us something. I’m open to a breakout for him, but he’s got to prove it on the field. There isn’t a format where I can be tempted to draft him.
Michael Gallup, WR (ADP: N/A): Gallup’s career was completely derailed by injury, but man I was so excited about him after his 1,107-yard second season back in 2019. He hasn’t caught 60 passes since then, and I’m not great at math but 2019 was six years ago. He also didn’t play football in 2024, so the Commanders getting anything from Gallup is a complete long shot. But am I rooting for it? Yes. Would I perk up if he popped early in the year? I would. Just keep an open mind to him, because his talent was supreme.
Handcuffs
Chris Rodriguez Jr., RB (ADP: 277, RB76): Rodriguez is suddenly a lot less buried on this depth chart. While the fantasy masses drool over the narrative of Croskey-Merritt, I feel like the sharper minds noticed that Rodriguez actually got on the field last year and was damn good. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and scored twice on the season while putting up 94 yards and a touchdown in one of the two games where he saw double-digit carries. He didn’t qualify for a PFF ranking because he didn’t have enough carries, but his overall grade of 88.4 put him in the neighborhood of Kenneth Walker and James Cook. Maybe Croskey-Merritt is really the guy, or maybe Rodriguez’s seniority gives him the first crack and he runs away with the gig.