2025 Team Previews: Green Bay Packers
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
**Josh Jacobs, RB (ADP: 16, RB8): Jacobs might be the most underrated RB in fantasy, and despite this fairly high ADP, we’re not high enough on him. Those of us who have been playing this game long enough lament the loss of the true workhorse RB1. Most teams have given up on that concept because of the wear and tear that the game takes on RBs, and data that it shortens careers and decreases effectiveness as the season wears on. Not Josh Jacobs! This man is a bona fide bell cow, who has surpassed 1,600 yards from scrimmage in two of the last seasons, both of which he carried the ball over 300 times.
Jacobs isn’t an efficiency king, but he is durable, he is super effective in terms of gaining positive yardage consistently and moving the chains, he’s capable of posting big TD numbers, and he caches the ball. Jacobs was PFF’s No. 3 RB last season, with their third-best receiving grade. His status as Green Bay’s three-down back is not threatened at all by the current depth chart, with MarShawn Lloyd continuing to get nicked up this summer. His heavy workloads, the fact that he’s not exactly young anymore, and the lack of a ton of flash plays make him seem more like a “boring” back-end RB1, but the production shows us that he’s a premier player and should be a first round pick. Value.
Matthew Golden, WR (ADP: 98, WR43): Golden’s lone year as a Longhorn was wild, as he caught only 58 passes but still racked up 987 yards and nine touchdowns. Golden ran the second-fastest 40-yard dash at the Combine, an insane 4.29 seconds, and that shows up in his 17 yards per catch last year. Golden is small, so X receiver work may not be in the cards, but he’s more than a sprinter.
Golden’s 63% win rate on nine routes is encouraging for the Packers, who have a big armed QB in Jordan Love. Golden was a monster on digs, posts and corners, offering the Packers a lot of chunk play capability, and he actually played on the outside most of the time for Texas. Golden’s draft capital and skill set seem to point to him being a flanker, relegating Reed to more of the same slot and gadget work. It is unclear if the Packers would be willing to give Reed a chancer to earn X receiver work – his man success rates tell us it might be worth a try – but it’s a little discouraging for the hopes of Reed getting on the field more in those two-WR sets. Personally, I like the idea of those two WRs being Reed and Golden because that seems difficult to guard, but I don’t make decisions. Golden should be a good player, but this WR room is packed to the gills and I can’t be sure of how he’ll transition until he does. Until then, this is an appropriate ADP, but I need to be convinced of the value.
**Jayden Reed, WR (ADP: 105, WR47): After Jacobs, all the Packers have caveats or drawbacks that make them very difficult to rank. Reed is the best example of this. He’s currently hurt and missing time in camp, adding to the confusion around him, but the biggest hurdle to confidence in Reed as a big time asset is role.
Reed is extremely talented, and he became more efficient last season, but the final numbers – 55 receptions, 857 yards, seven total touchdowns – aren’t going to cut it as a WR2. But when you look under the hood, Reed has everything you need to be a strong WR2 for fantasy! Reed torched zone coverage (82.4% success rate, 82nd percentile), and he cooked man too (72.9%, 74th percentile). Reed also is becoming the new Deebo Samuel, rushing 20 times for 163 yards and a touchdown while pushing his total yardage past the 1,000-yard mark. The issue is pretty much his snaps. Despite all this tasty data, the Packers don’t like lining him up on the outside, nor do they keep him on the field in two-WR sets. This just limits his ceiling to a frustrating degree, and it actually speaks to his talent that he’s able to produce this much basically in handcuffs from a scheme perspective. The Packers then went out and added a high-profile rookie WR, Matthew Golden, into the mix and it’s unclear whose role he will be eating into.
I am a big believer in betting on high-end talent even if they’ve been frustrating. We aren’t in the Packers’ coaching meetings, and we don’t know what they’re cooking up, but it is hard to imagine they’re not seeing Reed cook defenses no matter what they’re running and don’t want to get him on the field more. It’s hard for me to tell you that you can feel good about him as a WR2, but I truly believe that his ceiling is that high, and the risk is built into this ADP. There’s a lot of upside, and very little downside at this point in the draft so I love him as explosive depth.
Tucker Kraft, TE (ADP: 102, TE11): Kraft is getting a lot of love this offseason, and he’s being drafted as a TE1. I don’t hate it, largely because a back-end TE1 and a streamer aren’t all that different, and Kraft has talent. He put up 707 yards and seven touchdowns last year, solid numbers, but nothing that knocks your socks off. With Jacobs at RB and so much receiver talent, I’m not sure there’s a lot of room for Kraft’s upward mobility. I’d imagine his 2025 looks like his 2024, which is fine. But you can get rookies Tyler Warren and Colston Loveland a little later, or upside veterans like Dalton Kincaid or Kyle Pitts. It’s fine, but if you are grabbing Kraft here and expecting a shock Top 5 TE season I believe you’ll be disappointed.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
**Jordan Love, QB (ADP: 130, QB18): Love’s numbers dipped hard in 2024, and he’s being punished for it by managers. Let them, because there’s a lot of upside here for an extremely cheap price. Love got hurt early last season and he was off the whole campaign. But he’s in a very well-coached offense, he has a sturdy run game to keep things stable, and we have seen his upside. In Love’s first season as a starter he threw for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns, and that was with a receiving corps that was among the league’s youngest.
He has familiarity with those WRs now, a promising TE in Kraft, and a brand new rookie playmaker with 4.29 speed. On top of that, Love, feeling healthier, is making noise about running more again. I wouldn’t base my evaluation of him on his ground game, but there’s real upside in that part of his skill set. He rushed 50 times for 247 yards and four touchdowns in 2023, so if we get back to that it can either mask lower than expected passing yardage, or take him from a back-end QB1 to a Top 5 type.
Of course, Love can just be middle of the pack again like he was in 2024, due to a pass-catching corps of good players but no alpha. If so, this ADP means he cost you very little. There’s basically zero risk, and league-winning upside. If you wait on QB, this is exactly what you wait for.
Notable Players
Romeo Doubs, WR (ADP: 221, WR73): We’re in Year 4 of Romeo Doubs, and I think we know who he is. Doubs is a solid receiver, someone you can play in a pinch, but you’ve got real issues if he is a player you’re depending on. Doubs was on the field 77.1% of the time, while Reed was out there 63.2% of the time. This is part of why the Reed experience was so frustrating, and based on Doubs’ output and 9.7% drop rate, why I can see Green Bay turning to Reed and giving him the opportunity to shine. I wouldn’t bother with Doubs on Draft Day, even in real deep leagues because I think the floor and ceiling are too close together.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR (ADP: 310, WR101): Wicks was a player I really liked heading into last season and felt, with enough breaks, that he could pop. Whoops! Wicks had plenty of chances to do damage throughout the year but ended up being mostly useless for fantasy managers. He ended 2024 with 39 receptions, 415 yards and five touchdowns. His reception total was identical to 2023, and his yardage was down despite playing in two more games than he did as a rookie. He remained solid vs. man, but his success vs. zone coverage dipped, and his 11.8% drop rate was borderline offensive.
The addition of Golden feels like a death knell for the Packers’ faith in Wicks, who will once again need injuries, possibly multiple, to see consistent reps. I’m more likely to gamble on Wicks than Doubs, but I don’t see myself drafting either of them.
Christian Watson, WR (ADP: 329, WR106): Watson’s return from serious injury doesn’t have a timetable, so don’t expect him ready for Week 1. He looks like a big, fast X receiver and that’s what he’s been in his three pro seasons. But his raw route running hasn’t gotten beter, and he’s never surpassed 41 receptions or 620 yards in any of his three seasons. Everything about the Packers’ moves seems to tell us that Watson’s on the outs, and even if he was ready to roll as their Week 1 X receiver, he has never shown fantasy relevancy beyond spot start status.
Savion Williams, WR (ADP: N/A): Williams was a weird player for the Packers to draft, because he seems like a prospect that basically can only provide some of the rushing/gadget stuff they already have in Reed. So either Reed is about to graduate to being their real WR1, as he deserves an opportunity for, or they’re souring on Reed and want Williams to do that stuff. Williams is a big boy, but his route tree looks like Dexter’s kill room. Williams had 100% success rates on flats and screens, and the only other pattern that was yellow was the dig. He was well below 50% success vs. man, and his 66.7% success rate vs. zone is pretty gross considering the best guys are surpassing 80%. Just a lot of yuck here, and I’m not going to be investing, even in dynasty.
Luke Musgrave, TE (ADP: N/A): Musgrave, a former 2nd round pick, was supposed to be Kraft. He’s been passed up on the depth chart, but if Kraft goes down, Musgrave could still pop. Just keep an eye on him.
Handcuffs
MarShawn Lloyd, RB (ADP: 249, RB72): Lloyd had a big rep entering last season, but his camp was derailed by injury, as was his season, and he did nothing of note. He’s being drafted as Jacobs’ primary handcuff, but aside from not seeing a need to handcuff Jacobs, there’s no reason to believe that handcuff would be Lloyd.
Emanuel Wilson, RB (ADP: 350, RB92): Wilson, on the other hand, actually graded out as PFF’s RB12 last season. Wilson didn’t play all that much, but this was a fairly run-heavy team in 2024 and Wilson maximized his opportunities. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry, and turned 103 carries into 502 yards and four touchdowns. He’s good enough to have a standalone role, and while he won’t have that here, he’s a very startable option in the event of a Jacobs injury.