2025 Team Previews: Indianapolis Colts
All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.
** = target in drafts at this ADP
Relevant Players
**Jonathan Taylor, RB (ADP: 18, RB9): Taylor has been around long enough that the “excitement” of drafting him has faded. Combine that with what most people feel about the Indianapolis offense, and we get this ADP. I don’t know about you, but I get excited about fantasy championships, and potentially snagging Taylor as an RB2 – possible at this ADP – is invigorating. Taylor is an elite dual threat RB who has rushed for over 1,100 yards in every season in which he’s played at least 14 games (3 of 5), and he went for more than 1,400 yards from scrimmage in each of those seasons, never falling below 12 touchdowns. He also posted 2,171 yards from scrimmage and 20 TDs in 2021, finishing as the RB1 overall.
Given the Colts’ dire situation at QB in terms of passing upside, they figure to lean heavily on the running game. That’s all Taylor, since his backups pose really no threat to his overall volume and he doesn’t need to come out of the game on passing downs.
**Josh Downs, WR (ADP: 114, WR47): Downs has become a very popular sleeper, so as Draft Day nears I do expect this ADP to rise, potentially into an area where he becomes much less of a value. Still, where he is as of this writing still presents major return on investment. I wrote glowingly here about why Downs makes for such a promising fantasy option, but we can synthesize it again.
Downs was a critical part of Indy’s passing game, finishing very high in the pecking order in targets, receiving touchdowns, yards and receptions despite being limited to 14 games and making only eight starts. Downs is a full field threat, posting above average success rates on digs, and outs, a 100% success rate on screens, which made up 10.5% of his route tree, and above average rates on corners and posts. Downs is small, so he’s typecast as a slot receiver. He is excellent in that role too, posting a 92nd percentile (86%) success rate vs. zone coverage. This is proof of concept for him as a dominant WR in full and half-PPR formats, especially since he should see major volume even with bad QB play because he’s open 24/7 in short range.
The thing is, Downs is capable of much more. He also posted a 90th percentile (76.7%) success rate vs. man, and an 82nd percentile number (77.1%) vs. press. His size doesn’t hold him back in any way shape or form and that includes contested catches where he won 70% of the time. Downs is a do-it-all pass catcher, and while sometimes receivers are held back by crappy QB play, Downs showed he can affect games and be a contributor regardless of who is throwing the ball. Truly elite receivers produce no matter what, and Downs is on the cusp of being grouped there.
**Michael Pittman Jr., WR (ADP: 128, WR50): Pittman has been the Colts’ WR1 for a few years now, and his down year in 2024, when he was very clearly hampered all season by a back injury, might have added another layer of value within this offense nobody seems to believe in. Pittman played through injury and was still the leader on the team or close to it in all major pass-catching categories, but it was more by default. This was a crummy pass offense, and Pittman was never the reason you won last year. Still, at his best, Pittman is a high-volume pass catcher whom we have seen go past the 1,000-yard mark twice while never having above average QB play.
Now, the QB thing isn’t changing in 2025. He’s either dealing with Anthony Richardson again, or with Daniel Jones, who seems on paper like a more prolific passer, but whose value, at his best, was actually what he could do as a runner. Pittman has also never been a touchdown scorer, despite his size, topping out at six scores in 2021. Until we see Pittman with a legit, good QB he’s probably topping out in the WR2 conversation, although talent-wise he can be in the upper tier of that class. This ADP treats him like he’s not even a WR3 anymore, and that’s just silly based on his career production and the fact that he was way below 100% for the whole campaign. Sign me up for Pittman at this ADP.
**Tyler Warren, TE (ADP: 112, TE12): It may seem wild that I hate the Colts QBs, but I think all the pass catchers are values. It has everything to do with where they’re being drafted, and Warren illustrates this best. Of course Warren carries all the risk of every rookie TE ever, but he also has tremendous upside at a position where even Top 5 options can drop a goose egg and nobody would blink.
I wrote here about how Warren wasn’t getting enough rookie love, but it bears repeating. In an era where rookie TEs are making more of an impact than ever before, Warren is entering the NFL coming off a 104-reception season in college, with 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. And he adds value in the running game too, so he’s a Taysom Hill-esque weapon only with elite receiving ability. And we’re drafting him behind guys like Tucker Kraft and Jonnu Smith because we think the QBs are shaky? Could never be me, at this ADP I’ll be ecstatic to get Warren.
Interesting Sleeper(s)
Anthony Richardson, QB (ADP: 180, QB26): Richardson may well not win the job out of training camp, but if he does, I daresay this ADP is worth a stab as a QB2 lottery ticket. We know rushing is a cheat code for QBs, especially in four-point pass TD formats, but Richardson stretches that theory to its limit. His 47.7% completion rate last year was downright disrespectful to the position and the game. He managed 1,814 passing yards and eight touchdowns in 11 games, and threw 12 picks. He was just a complete and utter mess as a passer.
As a rusher, points per game wise, he was second only to Jalen Hurts. He averaged more rushing points per game than Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson when you remove fumbles from the equation. That’s crazy, and if he was even just average as a passer he’s clearly inside the Top 10. Even with being one of the most inaccurate QBs we’ve ever seen, his points per game were in line with Caleb Williams and Jordan Love, two QBs people are excited about for 2025. So if he gets the job, I do think he’s worth a gamble late if you can pair him with someone you can trust. The ceiling is well inside the Top 10, but the floor is literal benching. The reward far outweighs the ADP risk though.
Adonai Mitchell, WR (ADP: 296, WR94): Mitchell is a talent I love, and I don’t subscribe to the “too many mouths to feed” mantra, but here…there’s too many mouths to feed. Indy doesn’t have a QB who can support Downs, Pittman and Warren all while having an all-world RB eat too and still find ways to feed A.D. Mitchell. Mitchell also didn’t help himself by being mediocre vs. man coverage and horrendous vs. zone (72.6%, 14th percentile). Now, Mitchell projects as an X receiver, and X receivers are often way less effective vs. zone, but they need to be better than 67.1% vs. man if the zone success is going to be this putrid. Mitchell was basically an ace on slants and nines, and everything else was a box of chocolates. The talent remains tremendous, but with Alec Pierce still around and effectively doing his job at the X spot, playing time will continue to be spotty. Mitchell’s pretty much free, so if you want to gamble, so be it. I will not be doing so.
Notable Players
Alec Pierce, WR (ADP: 223, WR74): Pierce’s season line is ridiculous. He put up 824 yards and seven touchdowns. That’s nice. He did so on 37 receptions. What?!?! Pierce was out there doing crazy cardio; he posted a 79.7% snap rate last season, but grew only 69 targets. His 22.3 yards per reception are equally impressive and damning. Nobody with that absurd a mark can sustain it, and nobody with an average depth of target of 21.5 can be taken seriously for fantasy. Consistency wise, his usage is a death sentence. I think he’s overall a good piece for this real life offense, but I’m uninterested fantasy wise aside from a desperation spot start.
Daniel Jones, QB (ADP: 225, QB37): The narrative of this camp battle is all wrong. It’s billed as the passer (Jones) vs. the runner (Richardson), and the prevailing line of thought is that Jones is better for the receivers. In theory, sure, but the truth is Jones has never been a particularly accurate or prolific passer. Jones has two seasons with 3,000+ passing yards, and has thrown for more than 15 touchdown passes once in his career, as a rookie in 2019. That’s right, since 2019 Jones has maxed out at 15!!!!!!! Touchdown passes.
Jones’ upside in fantasy has always been that he’s underrated as a rusher, and if the passing numbers could tick up just a bit he’d be rock solid. That rushing upside has diminished as he’s dealt with neck and knee injuries, and his overall upside is just gone. Technically, he’s been a better passer in his career than Richardson, but Richardson has better tools, is an elite rusher, and has potential to improve dramatically considering how raw he was when he got drafted. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I read that the Colts should use Jones if they want to “win now,” because Jones has never equaled winning. He is a backup QB, and I’d prefer to see Richardson start and maybe get better over Jones putting up Richardson-esque passing numbers anyway with a few more completions.
Handcuffs
DJ Giddens, RB (ADP: 217, RB65): Giddens put up some gaudy numbers at Kansas State, and he may be interesting if Taylor goes down. Without an injury though, hard to see him making any impact as a rookie.
Khalil Herbert, RB (ADP: 333, RB94): Herbert’s talented, but he’s going on Year 5 without ever getting even a chance to be “the guy.” He’s definitely not getting that chance in Indy without catastrophe striking Taylor, and even then Giddens is a formidable foe. If he got a big opportunity, I’d be interested but until then he’s not draftable. If you’re looking to handcuff Taylor, my recommendation is don’t. But if you insist, I’d rather grab Giddens.