2025 Team Previews: Dallas Cowboys

All ADP data is courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

** = target in drafts at this ADP

Relevant Players

CeeDee Lamb, WR (ADP: 6, WR3): Lamb took a step back in 2024 from his insane 2023 campaign, but that can be directly attributed to Dak Prescott playing in only eight games last season, and Dallas being bereft of a threatening running game and other playmakers alongside him. When Dallas was on the schedule, all defenses needed to worry about was scheming vs. Lamb, and even that got easier when the Cowboys didn’t have anyone to throw it to him. And Lam still managed 1,194 yards and six touchdowns with 101 receptions. It is hard to be considered a value when you’re going this high in the draft, but I don’t have any issues with this ADP. He’s among the elite of the elite at his position, and this season there does seem to be more separation than usual from the elites and the tiers below.

Lamb is capable of damaging defenses at all three levels of the field, and while he can be an elite X receiver, he’s probably most effective moving from flanker to slot, which he’ll be able to do this season now that the Cowboys have addressed the secondary receiver. I can see a return to 2023 form for Lamb, and I’d be happy to take him here.

**George Pickens, WR (ADP: 70, WR29): Pickens is one polarizing player, but the truth is that he took strides last season that were masked by the nonsense he brings upon himself, and that bad narrative may be giving us who look under the hood a nice bit of value. Pickens’ attitude is a problem, and there’s no way around it. His highlights are as spectacular as anyone you’ll find in the NFL, but the simple facts are he’s only surpassed 1,000 yards once in three seasons, and he’s been benched before due to listless play and creating headaches off the field. He’s also been an efficiency monster rather than a volume receiver; we love those efficiency guys too, but it’s often a bumpier road to the final numbers, so roster construction needs to be kept in mind when you’re considering Pickens on Draft Day.

Alright, with all that out of the way, let’s break down why Pickens makes so much sense in Dallas. As mentioned here when the trade went down, Pickens went from a Steelers team that signed D.K. Metcalf, who plays the exact same role, to Dallas where they have a Pro Bowl QB in place, and whose offense was crying out for a threat down the field and on the boundary. In each of his three seasons Pickens has averaged 15+ yards per catch and I noted that he’s got 57 career plays of 20 or more yards. Pickens leveled up vs. man last season, posting a 72.8% win rate (74th percentile) and he was elated to see press coverage based on his 77.6% success rate (83rd percentile). If you’re thinking of loading up on Lamb and trying to single cover Pickens…good freakin’ luck. Pickens is still well below average vs. zone coverage, but with Lamb on the team, so what? Pickens does all the X receiver stuff well. He won on 82.4% of his slants, 63.6% of his corners, 80% of his posts and 55.6% of his nine routes, which was his most frequently run route.

It's gambling for sure, but I look at Pickens and I don’t see any reason that he can’t be a stat sheet clone of  Tee Higgins, who is going almost 40 picks ahead of him. Higgins, of course, has proven himself in ways Pickens hasn’t, but these are very similar players and Pickens’ physical traits are up there with anyone in the game. The way I play fantasy, is taking big swings when there’s more to the optimism than just hope. Pickens’ game is high-end, and he’s landed in a perfect place to thrive as long as he stays out of his own way.

**Dak Prescott, QB (ADP: 105, QB13): Prescott is this year’s Joe Burrow. Burrow’s ADP stood out last season, because he was dinged due to injuries. But the truth is anyone can get hurt, and when Burrow played full seasons, he was always crushing the necessary benchmarks for pocket passers to succeed. Prescott isn’t quite as good as Burrow, but he’s played three full seasons since 2019, and here’s what he did in those campaigns:

2019: 4,902 yards, 30 touchdowns

2021: 4,449 yards, 37 touchdowns

2023: 4,516 yards, 36 touchdowns

Yes, I understand that means he’s basically getting hurt every other year, but at this ADP you’re not risking anything. You can easily draft Prescott and then someone else even later as an insurance policy, and rest easy knowing that if Prescott can stay upright he’s giving you a minimum of 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns. Seeing a player like Bo Nix go more than 20 spots ahead of him with a receiving corps that’s significantly less talented makes me smile so big. Prescott will be one of fantasy’s biggest values in 2025.

Javonte Williams, RB (ADP: 108, RB35): Williams is one of fantasy’s bigger what ifs of the last few years, because his promise was cut down by a bad knee injury and this exciting player hasn’t been the same since. Williams has never hit 1,000 rushing yards in a season, nor rushed for more than four touchdowns. He averaged 3.6 and 3.7 yards per carry in his final two seasons with the Broncos, and last season saw his volume disappear.

He seems like a solid bet for volume simply because Dallas’ RB room is a big old question mark. Behind him are rookies, small special teams types, or just guys we don’t know much about. I understand the temptation, but beware! These were the same arguments that led to a Top 70 ADP for Zamir White on the Raiders last season and he was a catastrophe. I fear Javonte Williams is just cooked, and I don’t know who will have the most value in this backfield, but I would place my bets on someone else from this team much later. It’s also why I am so bullish on Dak and his top two WRs.

Interesting Sleeper(s)

Jaydon Blue, RB (ADP: 131, RB44): Blue, a fifth-round RB out of Texas, doesn’t have incredible collegiate numbers. He notched a career-high 134 carries last year, and put up 730 yards and eight touchdowns for the Longhorns. It would be bold to declare him the Cowboys’ lead back, but I am more interested in Blue than Williams because of his receiving profile. Blue caught 42 passes for 368 yards and six touchdowns last season, which makes his overall stats – 1,098 yards, 14 total touchdowns – far more impressive. I wouldn’t draft Blue and expect to count on him immediately, but if Javonte Williams is his primary competition and Dallas doesn’t make more moves at the position, we’ll see Blue on the field in 2025 and he’ll be in a high-scoring offense.

Notable Players

Jake Ferguson, TE (ADP: 120, TE15): Ferguson was a popular sleeper last year because many saw the lack of quality receivers on the Dallas depth chart and penciled in more targets. Well, Prescott got hurt, but also Ferguson is just not a talent that warrants so much attention. He’s a big bodied player with sure hands, and he will have games where he pops. That makes him a high-end streaming TE. Now that Lamb has a legit running mate in Pickens, who should be a monster in the red zone, Ferguson is very much a complementary option. There are higher upside plays in this range at TE if you’re waiting, and I’d roll with those rather than Ferguson.

Jalen Tolbert, WR (ADP: 326, WR109): Tolbert had his moments in 2024, but ultimately if he couldn’t establish himself as a clear No. 2, in his third NFL season, then I fear we know who he is. He’s not a bad receiver by any stretch, because 610 yards and seven TDs is respectable, but it’s just not fantasy relevant. Should George Pickens go down, Tolbert is probably the next man up. Then again, that’s just the 2024 scenario and we saw him be just okay.

KaVontae Turpin, WR (ADP: N/A): Turpin is small, but man is he a playmaking demon. I was planning to write about him this offseason as a deep, deep option that could see a big role increase a la Rashid Shaheed in New Orleans, but Pickens’ arrival rendered that moot. At 5’9, 153 lbs. it’s too much to expect Turpin to have a ton of reps as a regular slot receiver, and due to that he’s probably not a fantasy option. But if Dallas loved his playmaking enough they could potentially have package of plays specifically designed for him on a weekly basis. That could get him into desperation FLEX territory in the deepest of formats.

Jonathan Mingo, WR (ADP: N/A): Mingo is talented, but he hasn’t been used well since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2023. Reception Perception has begged for Mingo to be used as a slot receiver, whereas Carolina insisted on him being on the outside because of his size, ignoring everything about his skill set. Maybe Mingo’s just a lost cause, but in Dallas there is absolutely a chance they bump him inside with Lamb and Pickens largely manning the outside positions. With those two drawing so much attention, the slot role could be fruitful with Prescott airing it out. It’s definitely a long shot, but not impossible.

Handcuffs

Miles Sanders, RB (ADP: 223, RB66): Sanders’ tenure in Carolina was very underwhelming, to the delight of film nerds everywhere who hate his straight line running style. It’s true that Miles Sanders is not a man of great vision, but he is a man who can break off big plays and pick up chunks of yardage when he hits a clear hole. Dallas’ RB room dictates that Sanders can earn himself an early down role by outplaying Williams this summer, and either forming a duo with Jaydon Blue, or even gaining the better part of a committee. Of course, this could become a mostly ineffective trio, murdering all value for everyone, but look at the ADP. There’s no risk at all. If you want a piece of Dallas’ backfield, I’d try to draft Blue first. If you miss, I’d prefer spending one of my last picks on Sanders than the earlier pick on Williams.