Leap to Elite: Josh Downs Is An Elite Receiver Already And Very Few Know It

Sometimes the most satisfying breakouts are the ones hiding in plain sight. There are reasons to be uncertain about the season third-year WR Josh Downs will have in 2025, but there are far more reasons to be bullish on him becoming an elite player.

The 2024 Colts will not be remembered as a prolific offense, and certainly wasn’t a powerhouse in the aerial aspect of football, but Downs was a critical part of their ultimate production. He missed a few games due to injury, but still finished second on the team in targets (107), second in receiving touchdowns (5), third in yards (803), and first in receptions (72), doing all this in 14 games. Downs soaked up almost 22% of the Colts’ total targets last season, second only to Michael Pittman Jr., and he and Pittman both drew over 100 targets. The No. 3 most-targeted player was Alec Pierce, with only 69. On top of all that usage, Downs was also the team leader in first downs (40), serving as their go-to option to keep the chains moving.

So the volume box is checked, but that’s not all there is to being an elite fantasy contributor. You can put up numbers on volume, but elite talent is what maximizes that volume. Peeking under the hood of Downs’ season proves he has that in abundance. Downs rated as PFF’s No. 12 WR, and his Reception Perception profile showed startlingly few weaknesses in his game. Downs’ size leads some to pigeonhole him as a slot receiver, and he spent a lot of time there, but he’s much more than that. The Colts have Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell occupying the outside spots, so that is the main reason Downs spends so much time inside, but the Colts still utilized him in a way that involves him more and manufactures touches. It was wise to do so, as his success rates were crazy. Downs put up a 76.7% win rate vs. man (90th percentile), an 86% win rate vs. zone (92nd percentile), and he defeated press regularly (77.1 %, 82nd percentile). So yeah, he’s really damn good. But is he in an offensive environment that will allow him to fully spread his wings? That’s the piece that might keep his ADP at a price that makes him a superb value for us.

The Colts QB situation is set to be one of the more high-profile position battles across NFL training camps. Anthony Richardson, the former No. 3 overall pick, has not panned out thus far or developed enough as a passer to operate a consistently effective passing game so Indianapolis brought in veteran Daniel Jones to be a real contender for the starting job. Now, Richardson is dealing with a potentially serious injury to his throwing shoulder, which could hand the job to Jones by default. Neither QB figures to be among the league’s best in 2025, but the conventional wisdom is that Richardson, while the more talented of the two, is actually the worse option for his pass-catchers. Is it true? The answer is…not really.

Richardson was in and out of the lineup last year as he battled injuries and benchings for bad play. In total, Downs played eight games with Richardson under center, and six with Joe Flacco. The results were fascinating. With Flacco, the Colts threw the ball much more; Flacco attempted 248 passes in 2024, 16 fewer than Richardson who played in three more games. In six games with Flacco, Downs averaged 9.5 targets, seven receptions and 63.8 yards. He was consistently peppered with looks from Flacco, drawing 9+ targets and putting up 60+ yards and six or more receptions in five of those six Flacco games. With Richardson, Downs saw 6.2 targets, and averaged 3.75 receptions and 52.5 yards per game. So that looks like a clear victory for the non-Richardson games yes? What if I told you that three of Downs’ five touchdowns came with Anthony Richardson and two of them were from 27 and 69 yards out?

This is the part where Downs’ talent seems to override whatever the QB situation is, and why I believe he can leap into elite territory. Downs is a small player who looks like a prototypical slot receiver and is often deployed as such. Those tend to be jitterbugs who are open all the time short and thrive on volume. Downs showed he can do that, and that was how he rolled when Flacco was under center. But he’s also shown he can shred man coverage and win regularly on big boy stuff. Downs was at 77.3% on digs, 76% on posts, and 85.7% on outs. He also was at a ridiculous 94.4% success rate on routes to the flats, which were 15.1% of his routes run. Downs does it all, and he makes tons of big plays. Richardson loves showing off his cannon arm and throwing it further downfield; well, Downs had 10 plays last year that gained 20+ yards, and six of them came from Richardson. Three of his five touchdowns were from 20+ yards out, and two of them were throws from Richardson. Should Richardson win the job, maybe Downs won’t be as consistent a contributor as he would be if Jones is starting. But regardless of the QB, Downs is as well-rounded a WR as you’re going to find right now, and he will be a strong contributor for whoever drafts him at a big value.