Breakout Potential: Ricky Pearsall Was Better Than His Bust Rookie Season

Last offseason, I touted Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a possible breakout candidate, and one who would be undervalued because he played well on the field, but his results didn’t match the hype. We have a version of that this season in 49ers receiver Ricky Pearsall.

Pearsall didn’t have anywhere near the hype of JSN in his rookie year, but he was taken ahead of where most expected in the 2024 draft. That, coupled with the excitement for the 49ers offense entering 2024, had many of us thinking they had a big role cooked up for Pearsall. An injury and a literal shooting completely derailed Pearsall’s offseason, and he never fully got on track for the Niners, and the 49ers offense as a whole took a major turn for the worse all season. Pearsall did get increased playing time toward the end of the year though, and he finished the season with 31 catches, 400 yards and three touchdowns.

Those numbers aren’t fantasy relevant, but the flashes he showed absolutely were. In Week 10 vs. Tampa Bay, he caught four passes for 73 yards and a score. His final two games of the year were dominant; he put up eight catches, 141 yards and a touchdown vs. the Lions in Week 17, followed by six receptions, 69 yards and a touchdown vs. the Cardinals in Week 18. End of season big numbers aren’t always predictive, but it was good to see a highly drafted prospect like Pearsall do big things with a big opportunity. His Reception Perception profile tells us there’s more where those final two games came from.

While Pearsall didn’t necessarily crush it vs. man coverage, he was pretty solid (69.7% success), and he was really good against press coverage (75%, 76th percentile) while facing it on 24.1% of his routes. Pearsall also shredded zone coverage at an 82.7% rate, placing him in the 83rd percentile. That’ll serve him very well in 2025, as he assumes a bigger role in an offense that has shed Deebo Samuel. Pearsall was expected to serve in a slot role – although he projected to be able to do more than that – and in 2024 he spent more time outside than in the slot. He should see slot usage rise, however, with Samuel gone. He’ll be sharing WR snaps with Jauan Jennings and eventually Brandon Aiyuk, both players who have thrived on the outside. He also tore up zone, as was mentioned earlier, and posted big success rates on short routes (flats, whips) and intermediate ones (outs, digs, curls). He did post a below average success rate (71.4%) on slants that has to come up for him to be a big time fantasy option.

There are obstacles to fantasy dominance of course. I’m not a subscriber to the “too  many mouths to feed” line of thinking, but pecking order does play a role, especially in non-elite offenses. The 49ers certainly have clear-cut options that the offense runs on. RB Christian McCaffery is a major monopolizer of touches, and TE George Kittle led the team in targets last season. Aiyuk should also be a major force in this air attack when he returns from injury, and Aiyuk is often striking for big gains. There’s also Jauan Jennings, who exploded last season as an effective target hound. Pearsall will be replacing Samuel, who was a key cog for the 49ers for years, but he’s not going to have plays manufactured for him as Samuel did. With that said, if the 49ers are pivoting to a more traditional passing offense, Pearsall could well be a PPR-friendly player, producing on high volume, even if the yards per reception aren’t eye-popping.

Pearsall’s role will absolutely increase, which is good. It is hard to see his success rates and varied deployment and imagine him not being useful in 2025 for fantasy managers. Whether he “breaks out” depends on how much Kyle Shanahan focuses on him as an option. There’s WR2 ceiling in here if you look hard enough. Pearsall is essentially replacing Samuel, and even though he will obviously not occupy the same role – Samuel’s role is unique in the NFL – the departure of Samuel vacates 81 targets and 42 rushing attempts.