Fantasy Football 2023 Rookie Rankings: Nos. 5-1

Today, we’ll rank the Top 5 rookies for the 2023 fantasy football season. You can check out Nos. 10-6 here, and the Honorable Mentions here. Remember, these are ranked for this upcoming season, not for dynasty. Without further ado…

5. Quentin Johnston, WR, Chargers (Round 1, Pick 21)

Johnson, at 6’3, 208 lbs., is going to be a scary sight on the field for defenses facing the Chargers. They already have to contend with Austin Ekeler, one of the game’s premier dual threats, out of the backfield, Keenan Allen, a filthy route runner who can’t be single-covered, and Mike Williams, a hulking mass of speed and contested catch prowess. Now, you have Johnston, who averaged 17.8 yards per reception last season and topped 1,000 yards on 60 catches.

He’s no technician, so if you’re in a full-PPR league maybe he won’t be your favorite prospect, but this man was in the 85th percentile of college receivers vs. man coverage and he beat press 69.7% of the time. He ran nine routes 17.5% of the time and was successful on over 60% of them, as well as on 85.7% of his slant routes. Volume may be an issue because of the types of routes he’s most successful on, and the talent ahead of him, but he’s bound to make big plays all year with Justin Herbert slinging it around. He also has a pretty visible path to more volume when you consider Allen’s and Williams’ injury history.

4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks (Round 1, Pick 20)

Smith-Njigba is coming from Ohio State, which is currently just flooding the NFL with ridiculous pass-catchers who are good right away. He will be no exception. JSN doesn’t have the eye-popping stats that Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson had because he dealt with injuries las season, but in 2021 he put up 1,606 yards and nine touchdowns on 95 receptions, outpacing both Olave and Wilson in yards and catches. He was widely considered the best receiver on the team, and the presence of all three forced Jameson Williams, an eventual Heisman winner, to flee to Alabama where he became their WR1. Smith-Njigba is no joke, and he is joining a Seahawks team that already has D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett giving defenses major headaches.

Unlike most of the other WR prospects in this class, JSN comes with basically zero question marks in any aspect of his game. He posted success rates of 75% vs. man coverage and 81.4% vs. zone, runs polished and mature routes, and is consistently open despite a lack of elite speed. He’s been successful running a variety of routes, and can line up in the slot or on the outside comfortably, which should give secondaries fits when they have to deal with him and Lockett moving around. Additionally, and this is something I never thought I’d be saying, Geno Smith is a great QB for JSN to begin his career with. Smith led the NFL last season in completion percentage (69.8%), so if he’s getting wide open against nickel corners he could be a PPR monster freeing up his veteran teammates to wreak havoc down the field on big plays.

3. Zay Flowers, WR, Ravens (Round 1, Pick 22)

Flowers might not be quite the highest rated prospect in this class, or the biggest, but he might have the best role as a rookie. The Ravens re-signed QB Lamar Jackson to a long-term deal, erasing a massive, franchise-shaping question mark. They then went out and attempted to solve the biggest barrier to Jackson’s success – weak ass receivers. Outside of TE Mark Andrews, Jackson has been making lemonade out of WR lemons for a long time. He had a decent connection with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown for a bit, but Brown wanted out because of the Ravens’ insistence on running the ball to the point of ridiculousness at times. Flowers is a different type of receiver than Brown was, and now the Ravens have moved on from offensive coordinator Greg Roman, signaling that it's time to trust Lamar with a bigger passing load.

Flowers had tremendous stats as a senior, catching 78 passes for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns, and he did so in a messy offense at Boston College. He’s capable of playing anywhere, including the slot, and succeeded against all types of coverages. Flowers is a violent route runner and gets wide open routinely, which is an archetype Jackson has needed forever. He is tailor-made to be a target hound for Jackson, freeing up Andrews to do more work down the field, but he also has 4.42 speed that can be utilized on the outside or for deep throws. The versatility is crucial here, as is a lack of real competition for playing time.

Flowers is competing with DeMarcus Robinson, Nelson Agholor, Devin Duvernay, Rashod Bateman for No. 2 receiver duties, and will be playing alongside Odell Beckham Jr., who is a wildcard after coming off a second torn ACL. If Beckham is not resembling the OBJ of old, Flowers could ascend to being Lamar Jackson’s top WR target this year. The Ravens will still probably run the ball a lot, but with elite running QBs there’s always room for at least two major receiving options to thrive. Andrews will be one, and if I’m betting on any receiver from this group, it’s Flowers.

2. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions (Round 1, Pick 12)

Gibbs being picked at No. 12 overall was laughed at by a lot of people, but don’t let that narrative deter you from understanding that positional value for real life NFL teams doesn’t mean anything for fantasy value. I’m not married to the idea of draft capital guaranteeing anything, but the Lions are clearly all in on Gibbs. He’s small – 5’9, 199 lbs. – so a workhorse role is not there for him out of the gate, especially with veteran David Montgomery in the mix on a brand new deal. But the Lions invested a very high pick on him and immediately shipped out D’Andre Swift, so Gibbs is stepping directly into that role.

Swift scored 25 touchdowns in three seasons for the Lions, despite never averaging 12 carries per game. Gibbs is one of the most explosive players at any position in this draft, and he is joining Detroit while they are on the upswing, which could not be said for Swift. The Lions had a Top 10 run blocking line per PFF last season, and have major playmakers in Jameson Williams and Amon-Ra St. Brown surrounding Gibbs. This offense figures to be high scoring, and Gibbs is going to be a featured piece.

Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons (Round 1, Pick 8)

This is boring, I know, but I can’t just pick someone else if I don’t believe it. Bijan Robinson was clearly the best RB in college football. He can do everything at an extremely high level, and he was drafted to the team that ran the ball the most in the NFL last year, coached by a guy who designed his offense around a workhorse RB in Tennessee. At 5’11, 215 lb. Robinson has workhorse size, 4.46 speed, and elite production at Texas across multiple seasons. As a junior he ran the ball 258 times for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns, and finished the season just shy of 1,900 yards from scrimmage. This was a dream landing spot for fantasy managers. There really isn’t much more to say beyond he’s a rock solid player, and probably worthy of a Top 5 pick in redraft leagues.