Fantasy Football 2017 Team Preview: New Orleans Saints
This is the 2017 fantasy preview of the New Orleans Saints. In this preview I will provide the Must-Own players, Sleepers, and Longshot players with upside very deep in drafts.
Must-own players are those who should be owned by someone in any league. Handcuff RBs can qualify, as they are often very important to a fantasy team over the full schedule. Sleepers are secondary players that you may find on the waiver wire at some point in the year, or may go undrafted in shallower auction-style leagues. The Longshots are players with microscopic ADP, who are being drafted at the very end of drafts, or more likely not drafted at all.
All ADP data is courtesy of FantasyPros.com.
**I will list all kickers, but I cannot give analysis on them. Sorry :-/
MUST OWNS
Michael Thomas, WR (ADP: 16): As a rookie, Thomas pretty much set the NFL on fire. He caught 92 passes for 1,137 yards and nine touchdowns, all while competing with the departed Brandin Cooks for targets. With Cooks gone, Thomas will see a potentially dramatic increase from the 121 targets he saw last season; if he continues to catch more than 75 percent of those targets, Thomas could cement himself as an annual first-round caliber receiver. As of now, Thomas is going early in Round 2, and I’m not convinced that’s early enough.
Drew Brees, QB (ADP: 32): Brees is going 11 picks after Tom Brady, and even though I might lay off a QB at this point in the draft, it’s difficult to argue against him. Brees, 38, has shown no signs of slowing down, re-joining the 5,000-yard club in 2016 after a two-year hiatus. Brees threw for 37 touchdowns, and averaged 325 yards per game, his most since 2011. Brees does have some somewhat troubling road splits, but he has a fine chance to finish as the QB1. I’d wait a bit, but this ADP isn’t as egregiously high as Brady’s.
Mark Ingram, RB (ADP: 50): I’m not sure why Ingram doesn’t get respect from his own organization, because he’s been a producer. Ingram rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2016 and scored six touchdowns. In the last three years, he’s never scored fewer than six total touchdowns, and accounted for 10 last year. Ingram’s yards per carry have increased in each of the last three seasons, topping out last season at 5.1, and he’s gradually improved each year as a receiver too. Ingram has major competition for work heading into this campaign, but he’s my bet to emerge victorious. I expect more than 1,000 all-purpose yards, and a floor of five touchdowns. I think this ADP is appropriate, because the touchdowns may not be there consistently, but he has first or second round upside.
Adrian Peterson, RB (ADP: 69): Ahhh, AP. Peterson might be one of the most difficult players to project for several reasons. At 31, he’s an old RB, even if he’s proven that he doesn’t age like others at his position. He’s coming off another major knee injury, and joining a pass-first offense which operates often out of the shotgun; Peterson was notoriously ineffective when running out of the shotgun. My guess is that AP will be a low-yardage, goal line hammer. That means he will frustrate the hell out of Ingram owners, and be a high-risk play in any given week. This ADP seems a little high for that type of player, but I can forgive it because of AP’s stellar track record.
Willie Snead, WR (ADP: 77): Snead is one of the premier breakout candidates of 2017 thanks to Cooks’ departure. Snead has been consistent over the last two years, drawing around 100 targets catching around 70 passes, and scoring not enough touchdowns. Now, however, Snead should see a spike in targets that can vault him into steady WR2 territory, or even low-end WR1 if Brees has a big enough year. This ADP seems high based on his career to this point, but Snead can outperform it in a big way.
**Written prior to Snead's three-game suspension. All analysis still applies, but drop that ADP way lower.
SLEEPERS
Ted Ginn, WR (ADP: 148): Ginn is a proven deep threat in the NFL, and he’s only two years removed from a 10-touchdown campaign as the Panthers’ WR1. He will not be the WR1 in New Orleans, but he offers value as a boom-or-bust FLEX with Brees chucking it. Don’t be surprised if Ginn, whose career-high reception total is 56, blows past that number in the Bayou.
Coby Fleener, TE (ADP: 159): Fleener was everyone’s sleeper TE last year, and he flopped. He has never caught more than 54 passes in a season, or fewer than 50 in the last four years. He is what he is, but his role in this offense means there remains a chance he can explode. I wouldn’t expect his receptions to jump dramatically, but he could easily see a TD spike.
LONGSHOTS
Alvin Kamara, RB (ADP: 195): The rookie from Tennessee has been turning heads with some impressive preseason play, but if you ask me he’ll require an injury to become someone consistently fantasy relevant. Kamara will become an important player for the Saints at some point because of his receiving chops, but right now he’s an upgrade on Travaris Cadet. That’s a solid real life player, but not one you need to sweat on draft day.
Brandon Coleman, WR (ADP: 257): Don’t believe in Ted Ginn? Then you might want to spend one of your final picks on Coleman, a 6’6, 225-lb. beast of a man who could be in for a tremendous year if he gets enough play. Coleman has shown flashes of his upside, but he’s yet to see 50 targets in a season. If the Saints opt for his potential over the known production they can get from Ginn, Coleman has the potential to make fans reminisce of the good ole Marques Colston days.
KICKER
Wil Lutz.